The NFL season is now just over a week away. Because we are so close to kickoff, we are spending a lot of time around these parts working up all kinds of preview content. What should we expect from each team, each position, the various coaches, each division … anything and everything you can preview, we’re doing it.
So, we’re also taking a look at each of the two conferences. Specifically, we are working up All-Conference teams for the 2024 season. It’s essentially a Pro Bowl roster preview, in that sense. Below, you’ll find the AFC. Thursday, my colleague Cody Benjamin will reveal the NFC roster.
Without further ado…
Quarterback
These are the two best quarterbacks and arguably two best players in the NFL. Among the 27 quarterbacks with 1,000 or more dropbacks over the last three seasons, Mahomes ranks first and Allen ranks second in passing yards, passing touchdowns and expected points added per dropback, via Tru Media. Mahomes is also first in completions of 10-plus yards, completions of 20-plus yards, first downs per attempt and third-down conversion rate, while coming in second in sack rate. Allen is also inside the top three in 10-plus-yard completions, sack rate and yards per scramble. They go about things in different ways, but achieve highly similar results. There’s no reason to expect anything but more of the same in 2024.
Running back
Hall returned from his torn ACL last season and looked just as explosive as he did pre-injury. Aaron Rodgers offenses are always very friendly to running backs, and Hall should be even better this season than he was a year ago. Achane, meanwhile, had perhaps the most efficient and explosive season in the history of the running back position. He had 800 yards on 103 carries! His 15.5% explosive-run rate was almost 3 percentage points higher than the next-closest player. If he plays 17 games, he is going to put up ungodly numbers, even with an expected regression in efficiency.
Wide receiver
In two seasons in Miami, Hill has 238 catches for 3,509 yards and 20 touchdowns. He’s caught 119 balls for over 1,700 yards in each of those seasons. Mike McDaniel is going to get him the ball a metric ton of times once again. (The same goes for Waddle, to a slightly lesser extent. And if Hill is injured for any length of time, it is true wheels up on Waddle SZN.) Chase spent training camp holding in for a new contract, and he deserves one. He’ll prove that this year (again), whether Cincinnati pays him or not. It was a tough decision as to whether or not to include Adams here. He’s clearly still good enough to merit inclusion, but we don’t know for sure that the Raiders will be able to consistently get him the ball. We do know that if Rodgers is healthy, Wilson will be getting the ball all. the. damn. time. We’ve seen what he does for his No. 1 receivers, and Wilson is as talented as any he’s ever had. We’re betting on another leap from Collins here in Year 2 of the C.J. Stroud era. The Texans should throw the ball more often with Stefon Diggs on board and an improved offensive line, and Collins will be one of the main beneficiaries.
Tight end
Is Kelce going to be load-managed during the regular season? Definitely. Is he still going to be the best tight end in football? Also definitely. Meanwhile, I think people forgot how good Andrews is because he missed a bunch of last season. He should resume his role as Lamar Jackson’s top target in the passing game, and continue dominating with big plays over the middle and by creating yards after the catch.
Offensive line
Whenever he’s been on the field in Houston, Tunsil has been an elite left tackle. He’s played more than five games in four of his five seasons and made the Pro Bowl in all four. He will lock down Stroud’s blind side again this year. The Jim Harbaugh Era is going to take Slater’s game to a new level — assuming he can stay healthy. Speaking of “if he can stay healthy” again … Tyron Smith! The Cowboys figured out a way to manage his reps last year and he responded with one of the best seasons of his Hall-of-Fame career. If the Jets can keep him upright, well, you already know. Miller, meanwhile, has turned himself into a borderline top-10 tackle and is just consistently solid every year.
The group of guards we have here is getting up there in age a little bit, but they’re all still obviously very, very good players — even if they are no longer at the true peak of their powers. The centers are quite a bit younger. Humphrey has already established himself as one of the league’s best, and we’re betting on Linderbaum taking a step forward to do the same in Year 2 under Todd Monken, who can take advantage of his athleticism in space.
Defensive line
It felt almost nauseating to have to move one of Garrett, Crosby, and Watt to the second team. If you really want to put Watt on the first team, I’m not exactly going to argue. We’re splitting hairs between three of the five or so best edge defenders in the NFL. They’re all elite, they all play the pass and the run and they all play a ton of snaps (especially Crosby). Hunter, meanwhile, has collected 27 sacks across the two seasons since he returned from injury, and now he gets to go play for DeMeco Ryans and across from Will Anderson Jr., who was another candidate to make this roster. He should have a huge impact on Houston’s pass rush.
Jones is hands down the best interior defender in football now that Aaron Donald has retired. It’s not close. Usually when people say “it’s not close,” it actually is close; but it’s not close. Among those closest to him, though, are Williams and Madubuike, in particular, along with Wilkins. They are all capable of wrecking an opposing game plan from the inside. Williams and Madubuike don’t have quite as much up-front help as they had in recent seasons, but it shouldn’t matter. Wilkins, though, gets to go play next to Crosby. He could be even better this year.
Linebacker
If Smith isn’t the best off-ball linebacker in the NFL, it’s only because Fred Warner also exists. He is elite at every aspect of playing the position. The Jets’ linebackers duo is part of why that defense is so good. Quinnen gets the most love among the Williams brothers, but Quincy just made his first All-Pro team last year, too. And Bolton is a rising star on one of the NFL’s best units.
Cornerback
We wrote about each of these guys in our ranking of the league’s top 20 cornerbacks for the 2024 season. Stingley was a bit further down on that list, but only because injuries have kept him off the field. His talent level is off the charts. There’s a reason he even went before Gardner in the draft.
Safety
These are arguably the NFL’s four most flexible safeties. Hamilton and Holland, in particular, can play essentially any role a safety can be asked to fill. Fitzpatrick is possibly the best turnover-forcing safety in the league, and James has the skill set to be the best of this group of guys but has had trouble both staying healthy and tapping into all of his various gifts.
Specialist
Tucker remains the league’s best kicker, and is one of the best of all time. Butker can be inconsistent, but he has a huge leg and bounced back from the worst season of his career (75% field-goal conversion rate in 2022) with the best (94.3% in 2023). Cole and Stonehouse have each been All-Pros in recent seasons, and they have two of the best punt-distance averages in the league. Stonehouse also landed 53% of his punts inside the 20-yard line last year, which is ridiculous.