Projecting 2024 rookie QB class in 2025: Can Caleb Williams bounce back, Jayden Daniels continue his rise?

Welcome to NFL Thoughts, a wide-ranging, in-depth look at some of the top storylines of the 2025 season. In last year’s series, we assessed the Chiefs’ three-peat chances (close but so far away), how star running backs in new places would fare (very well, it turned out) and if the 49ers would finally fall off (TBD, but 2024 certainly wasn’t pretty) among several other topics. This year, we’re starting with the quarterbacks from the historic 2024 rookie class.

The 2024 quarterback class was unprecedented in both superstar power and depth. In Caleb Williams (No. 1, Bears) and Jayden Daniels (No. 2, Commanders), the class featured each of the previous two Heisman winners. Add in Drake Maye to the Patriots, and it was just the second class this millennium to have quarterbacks selected with each of the first three picks. When Michael Penix Jr. went eighth to the Falcons and J.J. McCarthy 10th to the Vikings, it represented the first time five quarterbacks went in the top 10. Bo Nix going 12th to the Broncos finished up a tremendous run.

Only once previously had six quarterbacks gone in the top dozen: the famed 1983 class, which produced Hall of Famers John Elway, Jim Kelly and Dan Marino.

It’s far too early to start making Canton busts or declaring “busts,” but the 2024 rookie quarterbacks produced aplenty of highs and lows. Moreover, all six enter 2025 with key roles and intriguing outlooks. There are legitimate arguments that all six of their teams could make the playoffs. There are also major questions. It’s a fascinating group, and Williams might be the most fascinating of them all.

Caleb Williams: Eliminating negative plays, improving deep ball

New Bears coach Ben Johnson raised an eyebrow or two at the NFL owners meetings when he explained his thoughts on which metrics he uses to assess an effective passing offense.

“The EPA [expected points added] in the passing game is really one of the most critical factors in determining wins and losses right now,” Johnson said. “That’s probably changed over the last five years or so. I would have said five years ago turnovers, takeaways, that was No. 1. From what I understand now, EPA for the passing game has now surpassed that. Whatever team has the higher passing game EPA at the end of the game, they generally win that game over 80 percent of the time. It’s a huge stat.”

Stats nerds (myself included) rejoice!

“Expected points” factors in down, distance, field position, time remaining, etc. and assigns a number of points a team is “expected” to score based on historic data. You’re expected to score way more points on first and goal from 1 than you are 3rd at 10 from your own 25.

Essentially, not all play situations and outcomes are equal, even if their box score appearance is the same. Completing a 5-yard pass on fourth and 4 would add to your expected points, as the team improves its chances to score on that drive by earning a first down; completing a 5-yard pass on fourth and 10 would subtract, because the team can no longer score.

In 2024, only Anthony Richardson and Will Levis generated a worse expected points added than Williams did. The biggest issue was sacks, an absolute killer in EPA. Williams took 68 sacks last year, 16 more than anyone else. The Bears lost an expected 108 points on Williams’ sacks taken, second-worst on record (since 2000), only behind Bryce Young’s disastrous 2023 rookie campaign.

We needn’t rewind Williams’ sack issues. They were painful to watch physically — he got absolutely walloped — and as an analyst. While many people look at red zone numbers, another area to focus on here is just outside the red zone, between the 20 and midfield. When drives reach this area, you want to score something. Williams lost an estimated 52 points on sacks in this area alone, the worst by any player since 2000.

Here’s a perfect example of how you become the worst quarterback ever in a stat: It’s Week 3, and the Bears are trailing the Texans 16-10 in the third quarter, facing third and 1 at the Texans’ 41-yard line. At this juncture, the Bears have an expected points value of 3.0: Historically, teams finish the drive with the equivalent of a field goal. Williams gets hammered by Will Anderson Jr. for a seven-yard sack. The Bears punt and never get any closer in an eventual 19-13 loss. That one play cost the Bears an estimated 3.3 points, as they not only miss out on potentially scoring, but they give the ball back to Houston.

That’s what the numbers say. What the film says is worse: The Bears’ protection plan falls apart as left tackle Braxton Jones blocks down and tight end Cole Kmet, coming across the formation, is left one-on-one. This, predictably, goes poorly: Kmet whiffs and throws his hands up — this is a blown assignment, a poorly-executed play or both — and a split-second later, Williams gets crunched from his blindside.

We can talk about issues with Williams playing on time — they’re certainly present — but he had no chance here.

Enter Johnson, who is here to ideally fix both. Jared Goff, who is not nearly as athletic as Williams is, had the 13th-lowest sack rate in the NFL last year, and several of them were sacks an athlete of Williams’ caliber could have avoided (and did avoid as a rookie). Detroit rarely had a poor pass protection plan, and they had great players to execute.

Johnson should bring the first part. The Bears addressed the second part with verve this offseason, trading for Joe Thuney and Jonah Jackson and signing Drew Dalman in free agency. They are all clear upgrades over the mishmash interior offensive line from 2024. Williams faced the most quick pressures in the NFL last year, per NFL Next Gen Stats.

For as much as EPA hates sacks, it also loves big plays. When you score an 80-yard touchdown, you add a ton of expected points considering what was “expected” given the area of the field. Converting downfield shots is huge.

Williams was also bad in this area. He completed just 22 of 80 throws at least 20 yards downfield, and over 41% of such throws were off target, meaning he didn’t even give his teammate a chance. Only Mac Jones was worse there. The Bears just kept peppering deep shots, though. Those 80 attempts were most in the NFL.

Chicago was hailed as an outstanding landing spot for Williams. It quickly proved to be anything but. The coaching was abysmal from a schematic standpoint but also regarding the basics. Williams said no one taught him how to watch film. He was essentially thrown into the ocean without a life preserver.

Williams just never looked comfortable. When he tried to play quickly and/or always on time, he looked robotic, and it took away from his freelancing abilities. When he tried to freelance too much, it resulted in disastrous sacks. Plenty of times, he didn’t even have a chance to do either.

The hope here is that Williams gets better guidance under Johnson and better protection from an upgraded line. The plan will be much better, but Williams will also have to play in structure more effectively, be more accurate downfield and take fewer sacks.

Amid an ugly debut, Williams showed some real positives, too. One can turn on his highlight tape to see the improvisation and arm talent. But on some fundamental levels, there were encouraging signs, too. Only two players had a lower turnover-worthy throw rate than Williams, no small feat given the poor play around him. He showed some real scrambling savvy when he could navigate the pocket and find a lane.

Johnson’s first goal will be getting Williams comfortable. But Williams has to show Johnson can be comfortable with him as his quarterback, too, by playing on time and not taking bad sacks that wreck drives. Only then will the two be able to take full advantage of Williams’ natural talent, which remains immense. It may take some time in the first year of their partnership, but there’s little doubting that the infrastructure is indeed in place for Williams to get back on track.

Jayden Daniels: Minor tweaks after outstanding debut

Daniels produced one of the best rookie seasons ever — if not the best rookie season ever — by a quarterback. He was preternaturally calm. He processed defenses like a 10-year veteran. His physical gifts were as advertised, and perhaps even better.

The following notes, hence, are not really criticisms, but simply nits to pick — maybe the difference between a star, which he already is, and a superstar, a surefire MVP candidate.

First, we’d like to see Daniels improve his accuracy from inside the pocket. Though accurate in general and incredibly accurate outside the pocket, Daniels had an 11.2% off-target rate on throws in the pocket, 25th out of 36 qualifying quarterbacks. While the misses weren’t way off, Daniels did leave some open throws on the field when his mobility wasn’t a factor.

This generally occurred over two settings: when the defense did a good job keeping him hemmed in or for a small stretch after Daniels’ rib injury. In the four-week stretch after Daniels’ injury against the Panthers, he scrambled on just 9.5% of his dropbacks, down from his 12.5% rate for the season as a whole. He didn’t have a single scramble against the Steelers. And in those games, he had lots of misses from the pocket. Daniels’ worst game from the pocket was his single half against the Cowboys in Week 18, when he knew he was only going to play one half and was purposely mostly confined to the pocket for safety purposes. (The Commanders had already clinched a playoff berth.)

Daniels had 75 scrambles last season, 25 more than any other player and the most in a single season since and the most on record (since 2000). While he is a marvelous scrambler, the film shows he might have had even bigger gains if he kept his eyes up a split-second longer.

Again, these are minor critiques. Daniels was outstanding. The Commanders upgraded both tackle spots with perennial Pro Bowler Laremy Tunsil and first-round pick Josh Conerly, meaning Daniels should encounter fewer muddy pockets from which he can struggle. Kliff Kingsbury is back as offensive coordinator after turning down potential job opportunities. Daniels should have a monster second year.

Drake Maye: Better decision-making and accuracy, plus more running

If you read the caption above and think “this guy doesn’t take care of the ball and isn’t accurate — he must be bad,” you’re mistaken. With dreadful surroundings, Maye showed some really good things, perhaps most importantly that he could keep his head above water.

Maye had a 47.4% success rate, 17th out of 36 quarterbacks and right around what Sam Darnold produced in Minnesota. Jacoby Brissett, playing in the same offense as Maye, had a 37.6% success rate, which would have been the worst among qualifying quarterbacks. Maye kept the Patriots at on track. He made a lot of really impressive throws, and his running abilities are legitimate. Despite playing in just 13 games, Maye scrambled 45 times (tied for fourth-most in the NFL) for 407 yards (second-most), and his 9.0 yards per scramble were second in the NFL, too.

We’d like to see more designed runs from Maye. He had just one non-sneak designed run all season, and it went for 13 yards! Josh McDaniels spent a lot of his time with Tom Brady, but he also spent a year with Cam Newton, so he knows how to use a mobile quarterback.

As a passer, Maye had typical rookie ups and downs. He threw 10 interceptions and had a 12.1% off-target rate. When he missed, he could miss wildly. Maye has the arm talent to access every type of throw, though, and while interceptions are never good, these were the types of interceptions he can learn from: trying to fit balls into tight spaces, throwing deep shots, etc.

Maye has a little bit of young Josh Allen in him: powerful athlete, big arm, erratic results. But the Patriots have made significant improvements around him, giving him bookend tackles in Will Campbell and Morgan Moses, a new center in Garrett Bradbury and a trustworthy receiver in Stefon Diggs. It’s not perfect, but it’s better. Expect some head-scratching mistakes as Maye continues to develop, but expect some more consistency and several encouraging moments, too.

Michael Penix Jr.: Reining it in, improving on play action

Penix played in just five games (starting three) but flashed in that small sample size. The numbers would look even better had Penix not been the victim of eight drops in his three starts, two of which resulted in interceptions.

Penix has an absolute hose of a left arm, but reining it in will be key. Over 13% of his passes were off-target, the seventh-highest rate among 47 players who took at least 75 dropbacks. Using Next Gen Stats, Penix had a -11.2 completion percentage over expected in a crucial game against the Commanders and was at -6.3 a week later against the Panthers. These are throws he needs to make, especially because he can make so many high-level throws. The misses against Washington were ugly and costly.

We’ll also be interested in how Penix develops as a play-action thrower. Atlanta did essentially no play-action passing with Kirk Cousins a shell of himself post-Achilles tear. But they dabbled in it with Penix. Though Penix is not a scrambler, he’s not a bad athlete, and one would think offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, plucked off the Sean McVay coaching tree, would like to expand that. Penix used some play action at Washington. We’ll see what he and Robinson have up their sleeves.

J.J. McCarthy: Hitting the middle of the field

It’s hard to know what McCarthy will deliver. He had plenty of starting experience at Michigan but was also equipped with an excellent offensive line, strong running game and one of the nation’s best defenses. Then he missed all of last season with a torn meniscus.

We do know exactly what Kevin O’Connell wants McCarthy to deliver: precise play-action passing over the middle of the field, targeting Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison on in-breaking routes, often from under center. The Vikings were sixth in play-action rate last year and third in under-center rate.

McCarthy excelled throwing to this area of the field in college, completing nearly 79% of his passes on 9.7 yards per attempt in between the numbers. He has the requisite zip to access this area downfield. But windows close quickly in the NFL.

We’ll also be interested in if and how O’Connell takes advantage of McCarthy’s athleticism, an underrated aspect to his game.

Bo Nix: Succeeding on straight dropbacks

Nix was a pleasant surprise as a rookie, delivering 29 touchdown passes to 12 interceptions. While his 6.7 yards per attempt ranked just 29th of 36 qualifiers, he was a much healthier 20th in EPA per dropback. A big part of this was Nix’s ability to avoid sacks: Only Josh Allen and Derek Carr had a lower negative play rate.

Still, 20th in EPA per dropback isn’t exactly great — it was directly behind Aidan O’Connell, Kirk Cousins and Joe Flacco — and Nix has a few areas he can improve upon. The Broncos started leaning into play action as the season progressed, which was a major help for Nix. Look at these differences:

Bo Nix Last Season	With Play Action	Without Play Action
EPA per dropback	0.11	0.00
Yards per attempt	7.1	6.5
Sack rate	1.8%	5.0%
Success rate	48.1%	43.5%
TD rate	8.4%	3.7%

Sean Payton doesn’t necessarily want to lean into play action, but without it, Nix struggled. And when the running game didn’t pose a threat or when Denver trailed, play action didn’t help. In the blowout playoff loss to the Bills, Denver only ran four play action plays. When things weren’t immediately open for Nix and he was stuck in the pocket, he had the propensity to take sacks trying to extend plays, something he mostly avoided otherwise.

This was a big part of Nix’s scouting report coming out. He could thrive on-schedule and struggle when he couldn’t get the ball out quickly. However, what we perhaps didn’t give him enough credit for is his rushing ability. Nix scrambled for 25 first downs, second in the NFL behind Daniels, and was seventh in EPA on scrambles.

There is a ceiling with Nix, who doesn’t have the biggest arm and isn’t the most accurate downfield. He’ll force some things that might not be there, but he’ll also make some spectacular throws — this frozen rope to Marvin Mims Jr. was one of my favorite throws of the year. His tendency to try to make these throws, of course, can get him in some trouble. But Nix showed remarkable poise and know-how in his debut season, and those intangibles will serve him well.