Thursday morning in Soledar. The soldier on this video insists that Ukrainian troops maintain the city and that Russians haven’t captured Soledar.
The very best of the worst of Russian propaganda on Thursday needs to be the declare that residents of Kharkiv—a metropolis that had been battered by Russian missiles and artillery every day because the starting of the invasion—have been so thrilled to get the information about Russia’s seize of Soledar that they determined to rejoice Russia’s achievement with a fireworks display. This declare is repeated again and again on each Twitter and Telegram throughout lots of of accounts and channels.
As twisted as that concept could also be, it’s not as darkish because the claims circulating on pro-Russian websites that 100, or 300, or 400, or perhaps 1,000 Ukrainian troopers have been “trapped” in Soledar and determined to commit suicide. Sure, that’s additionally a factor the tankies are claiming this morning.
As a result of it’s been so lengthy since Russia had something that even seemed like a marginal victory, pro-Russian sources are attempting to show Soledar into “proof” of each declare out of the Kremlin. Soledar has already been was a banner they will wave to point out that the whole lot goes in line with plan. These feints at Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Kherson? Bah. Solely now could be Russia significantly starting to battle.
There’s an excellent motive for this propaganda flood: If Russia captures Soledar, it could be their first important advance since July. If.
There’s little doubt that Ukraine can also be trying to color the state of affairs favorably. Nonetheless, their motivations for exaggerating the power of Ukrainian forces to resist a big assault are actually blended. Would the lack of Soledar and rising risk to Bakhmut make it extra probably or much less probably that trendy primary battle tanks roll into Ukraine within the subsequent few weeks? Good query. Ukraine isn’t denying Russian features within the space—Russia’s overrunning of the smaller Bakmutske was probably probably the most important risk within the space for some months, because it displaced Ukraine from well-established defensive strains—and the place Ukrainian forces can set up a place safe in opposition to what even Russians are calling “zerg assaults” isn’t clear. The reply could also be “not in Soledar.”
By trying on the surrounding buildings, it could seem that video that appeared this morning exhibiting Ukrainian forces nonetheless within the city was shot within the western a part of Soledar. Every of the little explosion markers on in the present day’s map would not replicate shelling by Russian forces, however places through which the Ukrainian military reported on Thursday morning {that a} Russian floor assault had been repelled.
Word that for Soledar, the UA report says nothing greater than “Soledar,” so the place of that marker was pulled from my very own … let’s say hat. In any case, I believe it’s secure to say this morning that Ukraine nonetheless controls a portion of Soledar, that combating within the city continues, and that losses have been important on either side.
One factor that Ukraine is emphasizing this morning is that they nonetheless maintain management over the highways main into each Bakhmut and Soledar. This would appear to point that any Russian penetration to the west has not crossed the rail line working north-south into Bakhmut and Russia isn’t at the moment threatening entry alongside the T0513 freeway.
To the south of Bakhmut, there has additionally been a flood of claims on Thursday stating that Wagner has taken the suburb of Optyne. Nonetheless, as greatest I can decide, strains in that space haven’t really moved. The Ukrainian navy denies that Optyne has been captured by Russian forces.
What’s occurring in Soledar for the time being can also be unclear. Russia seems to be persevering with to try motion, however Ukrainian movies don’t point out Russia is partaking in something that appears like a mixed arms assault. As an alternative … zerg.
The scene of that video really seems to be a wooded space east of downtown Soledar. (On the map, it’s close to the place the “dot” for Soledar is situated.) If this was really shot on Thursday, then Russian forces are nonetheless having problem capturing the central portion of the city. Nonetheless, as with the whole lot else, it’s onerous to make certain this video was really shot. The snow on the bottom is correct to circumstances in Soledar during the last two days.
Time to sum up. Has Russia captured all of Soledar? No. Will or not it’s vital if it does? Probably. That will depend on whether or not Ukraine is ready to set up new positions that safeguard the highways resulting in Bakhmut. Even when Russia is ready to attain the T0513 freeway, Ukraine will nonetheless have the ability to provide Bakhmut from the northwest alongside the M03, however it could symbolize a lack of flexibility and may very well be a risk to different places north of Bakhmut.
Whereas sifting via the morning reviews from the Ukrainian Ministry of Protection itemizing these areas assaulted by Russia on Thursday morning, there may be one which stands out. In reality, there are two huge names making their first look. See if you happen to can catch it:
Within the course of Lyman, the Russian military shelled Terny in Kharkiv Oblast, together with Makiivka, Ploshchanka, Nevske, Chervonopopivka, Kreminna, Kuzmyne and Dibrova in Luhansk Oblast.
To not wreck the shock, however one of many names in there may be Kreminna. It additionally exhibits up on the listing of areas the place Ukraine claims to have repelled a Russian assault in a single day. This follows reviews on Wednesday that Ukrainian forces have been advancing on Kreminna from the southwest. Whereas a few of these reviews place Ukrainian forces “close to” the western outskirts of the town, others point out that the Ukrainian navy has already entered areas of Kreminna.
The official statements from the Ukrainian navy don’t actually affirm this both means since they’re all the time fastidiously worded as “within the course of” or “within the space of.” Nonetheless, the truth that the listing contains Kuzmyne and Dibrova in addition to Kreminna is an effective indicator that the Ukrainian forces they’re speaking about should not these at surrounding villages. There are quite a few movies that reportedly present Ukrainian forces reportedly advancing on Kreminna; nevertheless, these movies are pretty strewn with our bodies.
There have additionally been a number of variations of this video unfold round. I’m utilizing this one as a result of it leaves off the ending through which each males within the video are shot with a burst of machine gun hearth.
Professional-Russian sources are claiming that this exhibits Ukrainian forces within the woods south of Kreminna being overrun by Russian forces. Nonetheless, Ukrainian sources are claiming that these males are Russians who’ve adopted Ukrainian uniforms. There are different reviews that Russians within the space have adopted blue or yellow armbands to extend confusion—already excessive due to the low visibility among the many bushes. What’s the reality? I have no idea.
In any case, Ukraine is seemingly in or very close to Kreminna with a number of reviews of development. That is the primary day that Kreminna has appeared within the “shelled” or “repulsed assault” lists—that’s important.
However I promised you there have been two names in that listing that have been important, and the reply is true again on the very entrance of the listing: Terny in Kharkiv Oblast. That’s as a result of Terny is on the excessive northeast nook of Kharkiv Oblast. If Ukraine has forces there, it could symbolize an advance of some 15 km from their final identified positions north of Kupyansk. So is that this actual, or does it symbolize some confusion on the a part of Ukrainian navy (or Russian artillery)? Keep turned. We’ll attempt to discover out.
Right here’s a drone drop that doesn’t finish with anybody dying … it ends with somebody getting some sugar for his or her morning espresso.
