2024 Fantasy Football: Justin Fields’ inconsistent showing vs. Texans unlikely to unseat Russell Wilson
PITTSBURGH — Before training camp started, Steelers coach Mike Tomlin declared that Russell Wilson had “pole position” on Justin Fields for Pittsburgh’s starting quarterback job.
After Fields’ three drives in the Steelers’ preseason loss against the Texans on Friday, there might be a car length or two between them.
The stats weren’t bad at all for Fields — he completed 5 of 6 passes and may have gone 6 for 6 if Tomlin cared enough to challenge the ref’s call on a sideline throw to Van Jefferson.
“I thought he was in bounds,” Fields said.
The six passes were good for 67 yards, but roughly 15 of those yards came after short catches from George Pickens. Fields made a terrific read on an out route to Van Jefferson for a 20-yard gain, and he also made a good read when he didn’t throw into tight Texans coverage on a bootleg play-action pass and instead ran for a tiny gain.
But he didn’t see a streaking Pat Freiermuth downfield when he threw the Jefferson incompletion (Fields said it would have taken “a perfectly placed ball” for that to be completed), he froze on a zone-read play that was blown up by the Texans’ run-blitzing front, he was sacked twice and he bobbled two snaps.
“From my perspective, that’s dual responsibility on the center and the quarterback,” Tomlin huffed post-game. “It negated a lot of good things going on in those first couple of drives. … You get behind the chains, particularly in the early stages before you gain real cohesion and have enough of a menu to get you out of those circumstances, you’re a dead group.”
And so if Fields is still showing hallmarks of inconsistency, it probably means Wilson will begin the season as the Steelers’ starter.
Wilson warmed up with his teammates before the game but didn’t play. Tomlin said after the game he expects Wilson to play in their next game, so he’ll get his chance to cement himself in that spot.
Moving to Wilson would crush the dream of drafting Fields as a top-12 Fantasy quarterback. Maybe we’ll double-back for him as a waiver-add during the season.
Worse yet, the one-two combo of Wilson working as the Steelers’ starter and Pittsburgh playcaller Arthur Smith’s tendencies could cramp George Pickens’ upside.
Last year the Steelers had the second-fewest dropbacks at 33.2 per game, and the Falcons — coached by Smith — had the fourth-lowest at 35.2 per game. Neither team attempted more than 31.2 passes per game. Also, never in Smith’s five seasons as a playcaller for an NFL team has he averaged more than 37 dropbacks or 33.7 pass attempts per game.
Even when Wilson had souped-up efficiency in Denver last year, it took all of Courtland Sutton’s 10 touchdowns to keep the receiver’s 13.5 PPR point average afloat. With Wilson in Denver, Sutton averaged 5.7 targets per game in 2023 and 7.1 in 2022. You’d have to go back to 2020 to find a receiver who averaged eight targets per game from Wilson — DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett both did it. Only Calvin Ridley, in 2021, averaged more than 6.9 targets per game in Atlanta under Smith, and he played just five games.
Wideout Scotty Miller, who played for Smith in Atlanta, told CBS Sports after the game that the offense is similar to what he worked with in Atlanta, albeit with some verbiage changed.
Fantasy managers would be frustrated with that average from Pickens, particularly since he flashed playmaking skills not only against the Texans on Friday but throughout training camp. Maybe it’s time to rein in expectations a smidge. CBS Sports drafters have been taking him in the Round 5 range, and that might be for the best.
Good news with the ground game
One positive from the Steelers’ loss was Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren’s play. Harris, who finished relatively strong last season after the Steelers changed offensive coordinators, looked to have a little more burst and speed than I remember him having. The first play of the game saw him catch a dump pass from Fields and turn upfield for a 16-yard gain. Harris also had smaller gains with nice cutbacks and solid acceleration and only lost yards on the previously mentioned botched zone-read on the first drive. Warren got into the act by taking advantage of a good lane paved by the O-line for a speedy nine yards.
“That component of our development has been really good,” Tomlin said. “I’m comfortable with the trajectory of it, not only in [training camp] but tonight.”
This is where Fantasy managers could feel a little optimism. Harris and Warren ran without one starting offensive lineman up front and the Steelers may flip-flop a couple of other linemen for some younger, stronger blockers. And for all of Smith’s shortcomings in the pass game, he was always dedicated to the run game in Atlanta and did a good job grinding against defenses.
When you see Harris lagging in your Fantasy drafts (his average draft position currently sits in Round 6), remember who’s calling his plays and acknowledge that he appears to be a little bit improved. No doubt he’ll lose touches to Warren — that’s part of Smith’s plan to be unpredictable — but he still figures to be the team leader in rush attempts and touchdowns.
Warren didn’t get any targets against the Texans but definitely will once the season starts. That’s on top of what might be five-to-seven carries per game. His ADP of Round 8 in CBS Sports’ full-PPR leagues seems like a bargain.
