2024 Mexico Open odds, field: Surprising PGA picks, predictions by proven golf model that nailed 10 majors
The 2024 Mexico Open will take place this weekend at Vidanta Vallarta with the first tee times coming at 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday. And while this has only been an official PGA Tour event for three years, the tournament as a whole dates all the way back to 1944. Hall-of-famers like Lee Trevino, Billy Casper and Ben Crenshaw are among past champions and Tony Finau will return this season with designs on becoming just the eighth player to win this event twice. Finau cruised to a three-shot win last season after finishing as the runner-up in 2022 and he clearly has an eye for this stunning seaside layout.
Finau is the highest-ranked player in the 2024 Mexico Open field at No. 24 in the Official World Golf Ranking and he’s the 13-2 favorite. He’s followed by Nicolai Hojgaard (16-1), Emiliano Grillo (18-1), Thomas Detry (25-1), Stephan Jaeger (25-1) and Thorbjorn Olesen (25-1) in the 2024 Mexico Open odds. Before locking in your 2024 Mexico Open picks, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
SportsLine’s proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June 2020. In fact, the model is up more than $10,000 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.
McClure’s model included Hideki Matsuyama in its best bets to win the 2024 Genesis Invitational. That bet hit at +9000, and for the entire tournament, McClure’s best bets returned nearly $1,000.
The model also predicted Jon Rahm would finish on top of the leaderboard at the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions and The American Express. At the 2023 Masters, the model was all over Rahm’s second career major victory heading into the weekend. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the third round, but the model still projected him as the winner. It was the second straight Masters win for the model, which also nailed Scottie Scheffler winning in 2022.
In addition, McClure’s best bets included Nick Taylor (70-1) to win the 2023 RBC Canadian Open, Jason Day (17-1) winning outright at the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson, and Rickie Fowler (14-1) finishing on top of the leaderboard at the 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic.
This same model has also nailed a whopping 10 majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.
Now that the Mexico Open 2024 field is set, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.
Top 2024 Mexico Open predictions
One major surprise the model is calling for at the Mexico Open 2024: Grillo, a two-time PGA Tour champion and one of the top favorites, struggles this week and doesn’t even crack the top five. Grillo recorded four top-25 finishes in his first five starts to open the 2024 season, but he’s coming off a T-44 showing at the Genesis Invitational last week.
Grillo remains on of the best putters on tour, but he’s been inconsistent with every other aspect of his game this season. The 31-year-old enters this week’s event ranked 89th in greens in regulation percentage (70.05%), 98th in total driving (179), and 152nd in driving distance (286.4). He also ranks 100th in sand save percentage (50%), which doesn’t bode well for his chances to finish on top of the leaderboard at Vidanta Vallarta.
Another surprise: Keith Mitchell, a 33-1 longshot, makes a strong run at the title. He has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Mitchell is currently ranked 73rd in the world coming off a T-17 finish at the WM Phoenix Open two weeks ago and he’s made the cut in four of five starts on the PGA Tour this season.
Mitchell won the 2019 Honda Classic and he has piled up a total of 24 top-10 finishes in his career, including a T-9 earlier this season at The American Express. The Georgia product has been sensational off the tee this season, ranking fourth in strokes gained: off-the-tee (0.771) and his combination of length and accuracy should provide an enormous advantage on a long course with wider-than-average fairways. See who else to pick here.
How to make 2024 Mexico Open picks
The model is also targeting three other golfers with odds of 30-1 or longer to make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model’s picks here.
Who will win the 2024 Mexico Open, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the Mexico Open 2024 odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected Mexico Open at Vidanta leaderboard, all from the model that’s nailed 10 golf majors, including last year’s Masters and Open Championship.
2024 Mexico Open odds, field
See the full Mexico Open picks, best bets, and predictions here.
Tony Finau +650
Nicolai Højgaard +1600
Emiliano Grillo +1800
Thomas Detry +2500
Stephan Jaeger +2500
Thorbjørn Olesen +2500
Taylor Pendrith +3000
Keith Mitchell +3300
Patrick Rodgers +3500
Brandon Wu +3500
Ryan Fox +3500
Erik van Rooyen +4000
Jake Knapp +4000
Davis Thompson +4500
Ryo Hisatsune +5000
Cameron Champ +5500
Mark Hubbard +5500
Justin Suh +5500
Aaron Rai +5500
Austin Eckroat +6000
Mackenzie Hughes +6000
Doug Ghim +6000
Charley Hoffman +6000
Alejandro Tosti +6000
Jhonattan Vegas +6500
Chesson Hadley +6500
Maverick McNealy +7000
Chris Gotterup +7000
Michael Kim +7500
Matt Wallace +7500
Nate Lashley +8000
Alex Smalley +8000
Vincent Norrman +8000
K.H. Lee +8000
Sam Stevens +8000
S.H. Kim +9000
Alexander Björk +9000
J.J. Spaun +10000
Scott Stallings +10000
Joe Highsmith +11000
Joseph Bramlett +11000
Carson Young +11000
Victor Perez +11000
Chan Kim +11000
Ryan Palmer +11000
Carl Yuan +11000
Patton Kizzire +12000
Tyler Duncan +12000
Parker Coody +12000
Harry Hall +12000
Vince Whaley +12000
Jacob Bridgeman +12000
Garrick Higgo +12000
Robert MacIntyre +12000
Greyson Sigg +12000
Sami Valimaki +12000
Davis Riley +12000
Matti Schmid +15000
Andrew Novak +15000
Robby Shelton +15000
Aaron Baddeley +15000
Dylan Wu +15000
Ben Kohles +15000
Erik Barnes +15000
Ben Silverman +15000
Bronson Burgoon +15000
Jorge Campillo +15000
