Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
“Black Mirror” (Netflix)
Emmys Commentary (Updated: April 17, 2025): The clock is ticking on the 2024-25 Emmy eligibility window, and HBO/Max is making a final sprint to the finish line, with two of its most celebrated series poised to make serious noise.
After a year of delays and adjusted production schedules due to the dual strikes, “The Last of Us” and “Hacks” are arriving just in time to qualify for the 2025 Primetime Emmy Awards. And with fresh episodes dropping in the final weeks of the eligibility season, both shows are positioned to leap straight to the front of the race.
The sophomore season of “The Last of Us” arrives with high expectations — and for good reason. The first season was a breakout success, scoring 24 Emmy nominations and winning eight, including for prosthetic makeup, visual effects and guest acting.
Now, with Bella Ramsey and Pedro Pascal returning in expanded, emotionally charged roles, the stakes — and the chances — are even higher.
Over in comedy, “Hacks” makes its long-awaited return with Season 4 — and it couldn’t be better timed. A previous Emmy darling, the series is the reigning champion in the top category and a three-time winner for star Jean Smart. Can Hannah Einbinder finally snag her overdue statuette?
The first look at the writing categories are also below, featuring multiple dips for shows like Apple TV+’s “The Studio” and two episodes from the latest season of “Black Mirror” from Netflix.
Check out this week’s Emmy predictions in key series and acting categories below. For a full breakdown of every Primetime Emmy race, explore the official rankings on each individual category page.
Nomination leaders (studios): HBO/Max (43); Netflix (37); Apple (36)
Nomination leaders (series): “The Last of Us,” “Severance” and “The Studio” (12)
*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)
Drama Series
Image Credit: Disney+ “Andor” (Disney+)
“The Diplomat” (Netflix)
“The Last of Us” (HBO/Max)
“Paradise” (Hulu)
“The Pitt” (HBO/Max)
“Severance” (Apple TV+) ***
“Squid Game” (Netflix)
“The White Lotus” (HBO/Max)Emmy category page with rankings>>>
Comedy Series
Image Credit: Courtesy of Apple TV+ “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
“The Bear” (FX)
“The Four Seasons” (Netflix)
“Hacks” (HBO/Max) ***
“Nobody Wants This” (Netflix)
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
“Shrinking” (Apple TV+)
“The Studio” (Apple TV+)Emmy category page with rankings>>>
Limited or Anthology Series
Image Credit: Netflix / Courtesy Everett Collection “Adolescence” (Netflix) ***
“Black Mirror” (Netflix)
“Disclaimer” (Apple TV+)
“Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story” (Netflix)
“The Penguin” (HBO/Max)Emmy category page with rankings>>>
Television Movie
Image Credit: Disney+ “Bridget Jones: Mad About a Boy” (Peacock)
“The Gorge” (Apple TV+)
“Mountainhead” (HBO/Max)
“Out of My Mind” (Disney+)
“Rebel Ridge” (Netflix) ***Emmy category page with rankings>>>
Lead Actor (Drama)
Image Credit: Courtesy of Max Sterling K. Brown
“Paradise” (Hulu)
Gary Oldman
“Slow Horses” (Apple TV+)
Eddie Redmayne
“The Day of the Jackal” (Peacock)
Adam Scott
“Severance” (Apple TV+)
Billy Bob Thornton
“Landman” (Paramount+)
Noah Wyle ***
“The Pitt” (HBO/Max)Emmy category page with rankings>>>
Lead Actor (Comedy)
Image Credit: Courtesy of Disney/Patrick Harbron Adam Brody
“Nobody Wants This” (Netflix)
Steve Martin
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
Seth Rogen ***
“The Studio” (Apple TV+)
Martin Short
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
Jeremy Allen White
“The Bear” (FX)Emmy category page with rankings>>>
Lead Actor (Limited/TV Movie)
Image Credit: ©Netflix/Courtesy Everett Colle Colin Farrell ***
“The Penguin” (HBO/Max)
Paul Giamatti
“Black Mirror” (Netflix)
Stephen Graham
“Adolescence” (Netflix)
Brian Tyree Henry
“Dope Thief” (Apple TV+)
Cooper Koch
“Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story” (Netflix)Emmy category page with rankings>>>
Lead Actress (Drama)
Image Credit: AppleTV+ Kathy Bates ***
“Matlock” (CBS)
Britt Lower
“Severance” (Apple TV+)
Melanie Lynskey
“Yellowjackets” (Paramount+)
Elisabeth Moss
“The Handmaid’s Tale” (Hulu)
Bella Ramsey
“The Last of Us” (HBO/Max)
Keri Russell
“The Diplomat” (Netflix)Emmy category page with rankings>>>
Lead Actress (Comedy)
Image Credit: Netflix Kristen Bell
“Nobody Wants This” (Netflix)
Quinta Brunson
“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
Tina Fey
“The Four Seasons” (Netflix)
Natasha Lyonne
“Poker Face” (Peacock)
Jean Smart ***
“Hacks” (HBO/Max)Emmy category page with rankings>>>
Lead Actress (Limited/TV Movie)
Image Credit: Jocelyn Prescod/Peacock Cate Blanchett
“Disclaimer” (Apple TV+)
Cristin Milioti
“The Penguin” (HBO/Max)
Ellen Pompeo
“Good American Family” (Hulu)
Amanda Seyfried
“Long Bright River” (Peacock)
Michelle Williams ***
“Dying for Sex” (FX)Emmy category page with rankings>>>
Supporting Actor (Drama)
Image Credit: via HBO/Max Zach Cherry
“Severance” (Apple TV+)
Walton Goggins
“The White Lotus” (HBO/Max)
Jason Isaacs
“The White Lotus” (HBO/Max)
Young Mazino
“The Last of Us” (HBO/Max)
Pedro Pascal
“The Last of Us” (HBO/Max)
Sam Rockwell
“The White Lotus” (HBO/Max)
Tramell Tillman ***
“Severance” (Apple TV+)
John Turturro
“Severance” (Apple TV+)Emmy category page with rankings>>>
Supporting Actor (Comedy)
Image Credit: ABC Ike Barinholtz
“The Studio” (Apple TV+)
Colman Domingo
“The Four Seasons” (Netflix)
Paul W. Downs
“Hacks” (HBO/Max)
Harrison Ford
“Shrinking” (Apple TV+)
Ebon Moss-Bachrach ***
“The Bear” (FX)
Tyler James Williams
“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
Bowen Yang
“Saturday Night Live” (NBC)Emmy category page with rankings>>>
Supporting Actor (Limited/TV Movie)
Image Credit: HBO/Max Javier Bardem
“Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story” (Netflix)
Owen Cooper ***
“Adolescence” (Netflix)
Jay Duplass
“Dying for Sex” (FX)
Rhenzy Felix
“The Penguin” (HBO/Max)
Diego Luna
“La Máquina” (Hulu)
Ashley Walters
“Adolescence” (Netflix)Emmy category page with rankings>>>
Supporting Actress (Drama)
Image Credit: HBO Adria Arjona
“Andor” (Disney+)
Patricia Arquette
“Severance” (Apple TV+)
Carrie Coon
“The White Lotus” (HBO/Max)
Kaitlyn Dever
“The Last of Us” (HBO/Max)
Allison Janney ***
“The Diplomat” (Netflix)
Katherine LaNasa
“The Pitt” (HBO/Max)
Catherine O’Hara
“The Last of Us” (HBO/Max)
Parker Posey
“The White Lotus” (HBO/Max)Emmy category page with rankings>>>
Supporting Actress (Comedy)
Image Credit: Courtesy of Hulu Liza Colón-Zayas
“The Bear” (FX)
Hannah Einbinder
“Hacks” (HBO/Max)
Kathryn Hahn
“The Studio” (Apple TV+)
Janelle James ***
“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
Linda Lavin
“Mid-Century Modern” (Hulu)
Catherine O’Hara
“The Studio” (Apple TV+)
Sheryl Lee Ralph
“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)Emmy category page with rankings>>>
Supporting Actress (Limited/TV Movie)
Image Credit: Apple TV+ Emma Corrin
“Black Mirror” (Netflix)
Erin Doherty ***
“Adolescence” (Netflix)
Lesley Manville
“Disclaimer” (Apple TV+)
Deirdre O’Connell
“The Penguin” (HBO/Max)
Jenny Slate
“Dying for Sex” (FX)
Christine Tremarco
“Adolescence” (Netflix)Emmy category page with rankings>>>
Guest Actor (Drama)
Image Credit: Paramount+ Andy Garcia
“Landman” (Paramount+)
Scott Glenn ***
“The White Lotus” (HBO/Max)
Shawn Hatosy
“The Pitt” (HBO/Max)
Joe Pantoliano
“The Last of Us” (HBO/Max)
Jeffrey Wright
“The Last of Us” (HBO/Max)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Guest Actress (Drama)
Image Credit: Kailey Schwerman/Paramount+ with SHOWTIME Gwendoline Christie
“Severance” (Apple TV+)
Fiona Shaw
“Bad Sisters” (Apple TV+)
Hilary Swank ***
“Yellowjackets” (Paramount+)
Tracey Ullman
“Black Doves” (Netflix)
Merrit Wever
“Severance” (Apple TV+)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Guest Actor (Comedy)
Image Credit: FX Jon Bernthal
“The Bear” (FX)
John Cena ***
“The Bear” (FX)
Bryan Cranston
“The Studio” (Apple TV+)
Timothée Chalamet
“Saturday Night Live” (NBC)
Christopher McDonald
“Hacks” (HBO/Max)
Martin Scorsese
“The Studio” (Apple TV+)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Guest Actress (Comedy)
Image Credit: Will Heath/NBC Jamie Lee Curtis
“The Bear” (FX)
Cynthia Erivo
“Poker Face” (Peacock)
Ariana Grande
“Saturday Night Live” (NBC)
Melissa McCarthy ***
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
Julianne Nicholson
“Hacks” (HBO/Max)
Sarah Polley
“The Studio” (Apple TV+)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Talk Series
Image Credit: Lloyd Bishop/NBC “The Daily Show” (Comedy Central) ***
“Jimmy Kimmel Live!” (ABC)
“Late Night with Seth Meyers” (NBC)
“The Late Show with Stephen Colbert” (CBS)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Scripted Variety
Image Credit: Max “Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” (HBO/Max) ***
“Saturday Night Live” (NBC)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Reality Competition Program
Image Credit: Euan Cherry/Peacock “The Amazing Race” (CBS)
“RuPaul’s Drag Race” (MTV)
“Survivor” (CBS)
“Top Chef” (Bravo)
“The Traitors” (Peacock) ***Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Structured Reality
Image Credit: COURTESY OF NETFLIX “Antiques Roadshow” (PBS)
“Diners, Drive-Ins and Dives” (Food Network)
“Love is Blind” (Netflix)
“Queer Eye” (Netflix)
“Shark Tank” (ABC) ***Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Unstructured Reality
Image Credit: Netflix “Below Deck Down Under” (Bravo)
“Love on the Spectrum” (Netflix) ***
“RuPaul’s Drag Race Untucked” (MTV)
“Selling Sunset” (Netflix)
“Welcome to Wrexham” (FX)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Game Show
Image Credit: Sony Pictures Television “Celebrity Family Feud” (ABC)
“Jeopardy” (ABC) ***
“Password” (NBC)
“The Price is Right” (CBS)
“Celebrity Wheel of Fortune” (ABC)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Directing (Drama)
Image Credit: HBO/Max “The Last of Us” (HBO/Max)
Neil Druckman, “Episose 206”
“The Last of Us” (HBO/Max) ***
Mark Mylod, “Episode 202”
“The Pitt” (HBO/Max)
John Wells, “7:00 A.M.”
“Severance” (Apple TV+)
Ben Stiller, “Cold Harbor”
“Severance” (Apple TV+)
Jessica Lee Gagné, “Chikhai Bardo”
“The White Lotus” (HBO/Max)
Mike White, “Amor Fati”Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Directing (Comedy)
Image Credit: Philippe Antonello/Prime “The Bear” (FX)
Ayo Edebiri, “Napkins”
“Étoile” (Prime Video)
Amy Sherman-Palladino, “Pilot”
“The Four Seasons” (Netflix)
Shari Springer Berman and Robert Pulcini, “Pilot”
“Mid-Century Modern” (Hulu)
James Burrows, “Here’s to You, Mrs. Schneiderman”
“Nobody Wants This” (Netflix)
Greg Mottola, “Pilot”
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
John Hoffman, “Once Upon a Time in the West”
“The Studio” (Apple TV+) ***
Seth Rogen & Evan Goldberg, “The Oner”Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Directing (Limited or Anthology/TV Movie)
Image Credit: Courtesy of Apple “Adolescence” (Netflix)
Philip Barantini, Series
“Black Mirror” (Netflix)
Chris Barrett & Luke Taylor, “Eulogy”
“Disclaimer” (Apple TV+)
Alfonso Cuarón, Series
“Dope Thief” (Apple TV+)
Ridley Scott, “Jolly Ranchers”
“Mountainhead” (HBO/Max)
Jesse Armstrong
“The Penguin” (HBO/Max)
Craig Zobel, “After Hours”Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Writing (Limited/TV Movie)
Image Credit: Sarah Shatz/FX “Adolescence” (Netflix) ***
Series by Stephen Graham and Jack Thorne
“Black Mirror” (Netflix)
“Eulogy” by Charlie Brooker & Ella Road
“Black Mirror” (Netflix)
“Hotel Reverie” by Charlie Brooker
“Disclaimer” (Apple TV+)
Series by Alfonso Cuarón
“Dying for Sex” (FX)
“Good Value Diet Soda” by Kim Rosenstock & Elizabeth Meriwether
“The Penguin” (HBO/Max)
“After Hours” by Lauren LeFrancEmmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Writing (Comedy)
Image Credit: Russ Martin / FX “The Four Seasons” (Netflix)
“TBA Episode 1” by Tina Fey & Lang Fisher & Tracey Wigfield
“Hacks” (HBO/Max) ***
“Big, Brave Girl” by Lucia Aniello & Paul W. Downs & Jen Statsky
“The Studio” (Apple TV+)
“CinemaCon” by Alex Gregory
“The Studio” (Apple TV+)
“The Golden Globes” by Peter Huyck
“The Studio” (Apple TV+)
“The Promotion” by Seth Rogen & Evan Goldberg & Peter Huyck & Alex Gregory & Frida Perez
“What We Do in the Shadows” (FX)
“The Finale” by Sam Johnson & Sarah Naftalis & Paul SimmsEmmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Writing (Drama)
Image Credit: Courtesy of Sonja Flemming/CBS “Andor” (Disney+)
“Episode #2.1” by Tony Gilroy
“The Last of Us” (HBO/Max) ***
“Episode 6 TBA” by Neil Druckmann & Halley Gross & Craig Mazin
“The Last of Us” (HBO/Max)
“Through the Valley” by Craig Mazin
“Matlock” (CBS)
“Pilot” by Jennie Snyder Urman
“Severance” (Apple TV+)
“210: Cold Harbor” by Dan Erickson
“The White Lotus” (HBO/Max)
“Full-Moon Party” by Mike WhiteEmmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
More Information
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About the Primetime Emmy Awards
The Primetime Emmy Awards, commonly known as the Emmys, are awarded by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Established in 1949, these celebrate outstanding achievements in American primetime television. The Emmys are categorized into three divisions: the Primetime Emmy Awards for performance and production excellence; the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards, recognizing achievements in artistry and craftsmanship; and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards, which honor significant engineering and technological advancements. The eligibility period typically extends from June 1 to May 31 each year. The Television Academy hosts the Emmys and has over 20,000 members across 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans and executives.
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