2025 Kentucky Derby horses, odds, futures, date, preview: Expert who hit 11 Derby-Oaks Doubles divulges picks
The 2025 Kentucky Derby will try to match the drama of last year’s race, which featured a three-horse photo finish for the first time since 1947. The first leg of the Triple Crown is set for Saturday, May 3, and the 2025 Kentucky Derby field is set following this weekend’s 2025 Kentucky Derby post position draw. Only five horses have won the Kentucky Derby at 50-1 odds or longer, but two of them have come in the last decade, Country House (65-1) in 2019 and Rich Strike (80-1) in 2022. Should you target any longshots among the 2025 Kentucky Derby horses at Churchill Downs?
Kentucky Derby favorites have won 56 of the previous 150 editions of this race, including six of the last 12. Journalism is the 3-1 favorite in the 2025 Kentucky Derby odds, followed by Sovereignty (5-1) and Sandman (6-1). Before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the horse racing predictions and futures bets from SportsLine’s elite horse racing expert Jody Demling.
A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling has nailed the Kentucky Oaks-Derby double 11 times in the last 16 years. He also predicted the winner of the Belmont Stakes four of the last seven years and called 10 of the last 20 Preakness winners, including in 2023, when he hit the winner, exacta, trifecta and superfecta, as well as the trifecta in 2024. Anyone who has followed him on those picks is up huge.
Now, with the 2025 Kentucky Derby post positions set and odds on the board, Demling is sharing his picks and 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. Go here to see them.
Top 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions
One of Demling’s surprising 2025 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Rodriguez (12-1), who barely hits the board in his 2025 Kentucky Derby projections. Rodriguez clinched his spot in the Derby field with a win in the 2025 Wood Memorial (G2) earlier this month, but that was his first win in three graded stakes races. He finished second in the Robert B. Lewis (G3) and third in the San Felipe (G2), losing to Derby favorite Journalism in the latter of those races.
Rodriguez is trained by Bob Baffert, who is trying to win a record-setting seventh Kentucky Derby. His jockey, Mike E. Smith, has only won the Derby once since 2005, and it came with a generational horse in Justify, who won the Triple Crown in 2018. Rodriguez performed well in the Wood Memorial without blinkers on, but Demling has not seen enough to have Baffert’s horse hitting the board. See which other 2025 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.
Another stunner: Demling is high on Luxor Cafe, even though he is a 15-1 longshot in the Kentucky Derby odds 2025. Luxor Cafe drew post position No. 7, which shouldn’t create many issues for the Japanese horse. Post position No. 7 has produced eight Kentucky Derby winners and only three post positions have produced more victors. The No. 7 post has an 8.5% win rate, sixth-best of all positions and fourth-best of any with at least 65 starts.
Luxor Cafe showcased his speed and endurance by pulling away from the field late in his 2025 Fukuryu Stakes victory for his fourth straight win. As the son of American Pharoah, one of just 13 Triple Crown winners of all-time, Luxor Cafe has arguably the strongest pedigree in the 2025 Kentucky Derby lineup. No Japanese horse has won the Run for the Roses, but Forever Young set a new Japanese horse best by finishing third in last year’s Kentucky Derby. Demling believes at 15-1 odds, there’s value in betting Luxor Cafe to surpass that result and make history. See which other horses to back at SportsLine.
How to make 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, bets
Demling is especially high on a double-digit longshot who is coming off an “impressive” and unexpected showing in his last race. Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2025 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2025, and which double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Demling’s picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who has nailed 11 Derby-Oaks doubles.
