Global population predictions offer ‘hopeful sign’ for planet, UN says | Global development

The global population is likely to peak earlier than expected and at a lower level, according to new UN projections that officials have said offer hope of reduced pressure on the environment.

The analysis predicts there will be about 10.3 billion people by the mid-2080s, up from 8.2 billion this year.

The number is then expected to fall to about 10.2 billion by the end of the century, a figure 6% lower than was expected a decade ago.

Li Junhua, the UN undersecretary general for economic and social affairs, said: “In some countries, the birthrate is now even lower than previously anticipated, and we are also seeing slightly faster declines in some high-fertility regions.

“The earlier and lower peak is a hopeful sign. This could mean reduced environmental pressures from human impacts due to lower aggregate consumption.”

He warned, however, that “slower population growth will not eliminate the need to reduce the average impact attributable to the activities of each individual person”.

Sixty-three countries, including Germany, China and Russia, have already passed their population peak, and another 48, including Brazil, Turkey and Vietnam, are expected to do so by 2054.

The remaining 126 countries will see continued increases and will need to consider “how to minimise future environmental impacts while meeting the needs of their growing populations”, the UN said on Thursday.

In nine countries, including the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Niger, Somalia, Angola and Central African Republic, the population is projected to double before 2054.

A decade ago, the UN said there was only about a 30% chance of the population peaking this century. In its new report it puts the probability at 80%. A major driver has been lower fertility rates in large countries, such as China, it said.

In more than half of countries, women are having fewer than 2.1 children on average – below the level at which a population size can be maintained without migration. Nearly a fifth, including China, now have “ultra-low” fertility rates of under 1.4 live births a woman.

The report calls for efforts to decrease teenage pregnancies, which have “harmful effects” on mothers and their children.

An increase in life expectancy at birth, with deaths among under-fives falling below 5 million for the first time in 2023, is expected to either contribute to population growth or slow rates of decline in most countries over coming decades, the analysis said. By 2054, people are expected to live about 77 years on average, up from about 73 years today.

Immigration is likely to play a similar role in many parts of the world, and will be the main driver of growth in the second half of the century in places including Australia, Canada and the US.