Housing affordability will remain an issue at the forefront of the upcoming presidential election, where swing states will determine the next president and the future of housing costs.
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Since the 2020 election, mortgage rates and selling prices have skyrocketed, reaching new highs in swing states, Redfin announced on Tuesday.
The issue of housing affordability is at the forefront of the upcoming presidential election, where swing states will determine the next president and the future of housing costs. Redfin’s 2024 swing states are Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina.
“Voters in swing states care about housing affordability because soaring home prices and mortgage rates, along with a shortage of homes for sale, have made homeownership feel impossible for some Americans,” Redfin Senior Economist Elijah de la Campa said. “While swing states have historically had lower housing costs than blue states — and most still do — markets in swing states have not been immune to the affordability crunch the country has been facing for the last several years. The inability to afford a home is making a lot of voters feel bad about the economy and their financial prospects.”
According to a Redfin report, swing-state monthly housing payments have nearly doubled, rising by 92 percent to $2,161. Since 2020, median home sale prices have increased by approximately 40 percent, hitting an all-time high of $316,063 in 2024. The mortgage rate is currently around 7 percent, more than double the record low of 2.65 percent in 2021.
Redfin’s analysis of housing-market data and incomes for blue, red and swing states was gathered from 2016-2024. The data is annual for 2016-2023, while 2024 data includes January through May.
Housing prices have also risen for red (Republican-leaning) and blue (Democrat-leaning) states. In red states, median house payments have increased by 95 percent to a record high $2,066. In blue states, payments have risen by 83 percent to $3,311.
Homeowners face a major dilemma since incomes have not increased at the same rate as home prices, due in part to aftereffects of escalated homebuying during the COVID-19 pandemic.
While the demand rose for remote work and low mortgage rates in 2020 and 2021, so did home prices, especially in Sun Belt swing states such as Georgia and Nevada. Major metropolitan centers in these states, Atlanta and Las Vegas, were among those that saw the highest increase in residents during that period.
As a rule, to be considered affordable, homeowners should spend no more than 30 percent of their income on monthly house payments.
By this measure, just 35.1 percent of swing-state homes on sale this year were affordable to a household earning the U.S. median income of $79,155, down from 65.5 percent in 2020. In red states, 36.6 percent of listings are affordable on a median income, down from 69 percent in 2020. In blue states, 25.2 percent of homes are affordable on a median income, down from half in 2020.
According to Redfin, swing-state homeowners looking to buy bigger are stuck due to housing costs outpacing the increase in their equity. Black and Hispanic families are another group who have difficulty snagging swing-state homes.
Families earning median swing-state income for Black families would spend nearly half (48.2 percent) of their earnings on a home. In 2020, that household would have spent 32.7 percent of their income on a home. A Hispanic household would spend 38.3 percent of their income on the median priced home, an increase from 26.8 percent in 2020.
It is worth noting that housing prices also saw a jump between the 2016 and 2020 elections. From 2016 to 2020, swing states saw a 40 percent average home price increase; blue states saw a 27 percent increase, and red states jumped by 28 percent.
Ahead of the upcoming 2024 election, President Biden released a plan for lowering housing costs while Donald Trump mentioned a strategy for tackling the market.
Email Richelle Hammiel
