‘Heat engine’ fuelled by climate crisis bringing blast of summer weather to Australian winter | Australia weather

Australia is on track to face its hottest August on record as a global heating-fuelled “heat engine” brings spring and summer warmth to Australia’s winter, experts forecast.

Weatherzone meteorologist Ben Domensino said the unseasonably warm weather was coming from a “heat engine” in Australia’s red centre, where clear skies in the coming week would drive maximum temperatures towards 40C, more than 10C above average, in northern SA, southern NT, and western NSW.

The Bureau of Meteorology is also forecasting 2024’s winter to be the nation’s fifth-warmest ever with multiple locations threatening to break temperature records for August before the month is over.

Temperatures across the country are rising higher and earlier than usual, putting August averages comfortably above the long-term mean.

South Australia could record its highest ever winter temperature, with Oodnadatta in the state’s north forecast to crack 38C on Friday and Saturday as maximums rise 15C above average in the surrounding region.

East coast capitals are forecast to be 8C warmer than their August average on Sunday, with Melbourne to reach 23C and Sydney 26C.

Sydney recorded its 14th consecutive night above 10C on Thursday, the longest run of double digit minimums in winter since 1967, and is expecting another week of warm nights.

Brisbane is yet to face its hottest days of the month, with the BoM forecasting a string of days above 30C from Monday.

Record high winter temperatures could be set in Victoria, where Mildura’s Sunday forecast of 29C will nudge the current 29.9C maximum, and in Queensland, where Birdville’s 37C forecast will sit just under the state record of 38.5C.

Prof Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, a researcher at the Australian National University and the ARC Centre of Excellence for 21st Century Weather, said the heat build-up was typical of spring and summer but was happening earlier and more intensely as global heating made winter shorter.

“It feels really pleasant where most of us live … and a lot of us have dropped off the Ugg boots and winter doonas, but it isn’t normal for this time of year,” she said.

“We’ve certainly seen weather systems like this before; in fact, they’re so common during summer. It’s just the timing and the intensity that is rare.”

The heavy early heat could bring showers more typical of spring and summer to South Australia, Victoria and New South Wales late next week, as warm systems clash with forecast cold fronts.

But those potential spring thunderstorms and lower temperatures would probably clear up to deliver a warm September as the hot air mass lingered over Australia’s centre, Domensino said.

Perkins-Kirkpatrick warned Australians to expect earlier, more intense winter heat in future.

“The lengthening of spring and summer is only going to intensify with climate change,” she said.