This report is available exclusively to subscribers of Inman Intel, the data and research arm of Inman offering deep insights and market intelligence on the business of residential real estate and proptech. Subscribe today.
The number of home listings, and therefore transaction revenue, available to real estate agents is back on an upward trajectory — albeit a stubbornly slow one nationwide.
But some local housing markets over the past year have leapt out far ahead of the national curve, an Intel analysis shows. And with a boost from homebuilders, a few states such as Florida and Texas have even clawed their way back within striking distance of pre-pandemic levels of new-listing availability.
TAKE THE INMAN INTEL INDEX SURVEY FOR AUGUST
These gains in a select number of local and regional markets are even more remarkable considering the mortgage-rate environment of the past year.
Rates have dropped off a bit from their peak, but remain much higher than what most homeowners with mortgages have locked in on their current loans. And this has left dozens of major markets in the lurch.
For this analysis, Intel crunched two years of listing data from Realtor.com, taking the temperature both at the state level and at the market level in the nation’s 200 most populous metropolitan areas.
In this report, Intel goes deep on what connects the biggest risers and the biggest fallers across the country.
The exercise also revealed how influxes of new inventory are already producing tangible relief for buyers — in terms of prices and negotiating power.
Where the recovery is on
Overshadowed by the overall mortgage-rate environment and its effect on new listings nationwide, a number of major population centers across the U.S. have enjoyed surprisingly strong bouncebacks in new listings over the past year.
This section focuses on these places where new listings have been on the steepest uptick.
To avoid month-to-month noise at the market level, Intel tracked the entire number of new listings that came online in the recent 12-month period ending in July, according to data from Realtor.com.
Intel then compared these totals with the number of new listings the previous year.
Explore an interactive map below, followed by breakdowns of what the top listing-generators had in common.
1. Florida markets and other beachfront towns in the coastal South
Many of the places where new listings have seen the biggest rebounds are in Florida communities big and small — including Miami and Tampa, and ranging from Jacksonville on the state’s eastern side to Punta Gorda off the Gulf of Mexico.
- All of these metro areas saw new listing levels over the past 12 months that were at least 11 percent higher than the year before.
But Florida wasn’t alone in this regard.
Coastal towns throughout the South appeared again and again on the list of biggest year-over-year gainers in new listings.
These places included the greater Gulfport area in Mississippi; the Myrtle Beach area of South Carolina; and the popular oceanside destination of Savannah, Georgia.
2. Seattle and the Pacific Northwest
The greater Seattle area boasts one of the strongest one-year bouncebacks in new listings of any major metro in the nation.
Perhaps particularly notable is the effect this has had on prices.
- In July, homes in Seattle actually spent 8 percent less time sitting on the market than they did the year before — often a sign of a market that is heating up.
- But in the past 12 months, the number of new listings that came online was nearly 16 percent higher than it was the year before.
- Perhaps partly as a result of this, Seattle saw a slight decline in median list price per square foot. It also saw a 91 percent year-over-year increase in the number of price cuts in July.
3. Texas border cities and nearby metros
Communities throughout the Lone Star State also saw significant jumps in new listings, aided by one of the most active homebuilding industries in the nation.
- Nowhere was this more apparent than in two Texas border communities — McAllen and Brownsville. Both have seen greater than 12 percent annual increases in new listings in the past year.
Brownsville in particular has seen a great deal of economic growth connected to the expansion of SpaceX operations in nearby Boca Chica.
But the effect is also being felt — although to a lesser extent — hundreds of miles away in the nearest big cities.
- San Antonio, Houston and College Station have all seen new-listing growth of at least 5 percent year-over-year.
- The metros further to the north — Dallas and Austin — saw positive trends in new listings as well.
Where new listings are stagnant
On the other side of the spectrum, Intel also found that many places have been left out entirely of the nation’s gradual recovery in new listings.
As a general rule, places with fewer new listings year-over-year were more likely to see fewer price cuts on listings, rising prices per square foot, and further deterioration in the negotiation position of buyers vs. their seller counterparts.
Here are some of the main communities where this effect stood out most.
1. Las Vegas
No other big city in the nation experienced a worse annual dropoff in the number of new listings than Las Vegas.
- The glistening entertainment destination saw a nearly 9 percent annual decline in new listings over the past 12 months.
- This appears to have helped pit more buyers against fewer sellers, driving up the price per square foot throughout the greater Las Vegas area despite relatively weak demand.
- Homes also spent 14 percent less time on the market in July than they did at the same point last year.
2. The Great Lakes states
Some of the most stagnant markets in terms of new inventory have been clustered in Midwest communities near the Great Lakes.
Detroit and Chicago stand out for having a particularly weak year in terms of new inventory, according to Realtor.com data. But smaller communities from Akron, Ohio, to Peoria, Illinois, stuck out as well.
In Detroit, the effect was particularly hard-felt.
- New listings in Detroit came in 7 percent lower over the past 12 months than in the preceding period, and buyers really felt the squeeze as a result.
- Price per square foot was 5 percent higher in July than at the same time last year. The number of price reductions was only up 26 percent year over year — about 20 points lower than in the typical big American city over that same period.
- And homes sold 2 percent faster in July than they did the year before.
3. New York metro area and Connecticut
Although the new-listing trends in the New York City area were less dramatic than those observed in some other parts of the country, the nation’s biggest population center remained noticeably out of step with the nation as a whole.
- 5 percent fewer new listings came online in the New York Metropolitan Area over the past 12 months than in the preceding period.
- Prices in the greater New York City area were 7 percent higher year-over-year in July on a per-square-foot basis, and the annual rise in price cuts there was 30 percentage points below that of a typical big U.S. city.
- Units were selling 7 percent faster in July than at the same time last year.
Email Daniel Houston
