Nominations voting is from January 8-12, 2025, with official Oscar nominations announced January 17, 2025. Final voting is February 11-18, 2025. And finally, the 97th Oscars telecast will be broadcast on Sunday, March 2 and air live on ABC at 7:00 p.m. ET/ 4:00 p.m. PT. We update our picks through awards season, so keep checking IndieWire for all our 2025 Oscar predictions.
The State of the Race
While premiering at the Cannes Film Festival is not the be-all and end-all of a film’s chances at winning the Oscar for Best International Feature (only five out of 10 of the most recent winners screened at the annual festival in France), the event does most often set the tone for discussions around what films will be chosen to represent what countries and, more specifically, what films have the best chance at being one of the five nominees.
2024 was a bit peculiar in that the big winners at Cannes that would be otherwise eligible for Best International Feature seemed like they have an uphill battle at being actually picked by their home country. See: Neon’s “The Seed of the Sacred Fig,” for example, which would never be the submission for Iran, given how director Mohammad Rasoulof was sentenced to prison there prior to the festival and needed to escape the country in order to promote the film.
Fortunately, Rasoulof’s film is one example of a contender that has already been selected by a country, and is now officially contending for the Oscar on behalf of Germany. Cannes Grand Prix winner “All We Imagine as Light” has been in a similar boat, as the Payal Kapadia film might be perceived as too critical of India for the country to submit it. Even “RRR,” a big hit in India and abroad, was not selected to represent India based on its selection committee’s unique criteria, but still got nominated and won an Oscar. Perhaps that situation has convinced the country’s decision makers to give “All We Imagine as Light” more consideration, since it is already so well-regarded.
Then there is Jury Prize winner “Emilia Pérez,” which was acquired by Netflix. The musical crime drama about a transgender drug cartel boss comes from French auteur Jacques Audiard, but takes place mostly in Mexico, with Spanish being the primary language spoken. France is another country that can be unpredictable with its Best International Feature submissions, overlooking recent Oscar winner “Anatomy of a Fall” for example, so the jury is still out on if the film “not feeling French enough” will be an issue. Another film in the mix to be France’s selection is “The Count of Monte Cristo,” from directors Alexandre De La Patellière and Matthieu Delaporte, which also premiered at Cannes, but out of competition.
As we head into fall festival season, there is still so much more to come in this space, but what has been fascinating among the small group of films that have already been submitted on behalf of their country is that they pleasantly feel more off the beaten path than usual. For instance, Sony Pictures Classics release “Kneecap,” the official selection of Ireland, is a brash auto fictional comedy about real life Belfast-based rappers. “Flow,” submitted by Latvia, is a stunning, fantastical animated film with zero dialogue. And Canada’s choice “Universal Language” is a quirky comedy centered on the Persian community in Winnipeg.
Contenders for the shortlist of 15 are listed in alphabetical order below. No film will be deemed a frontrunner until we have seen it. Titles with an asterisk have not been submitted by their country as of yet. This list will be updated as official submissions are announced.
Frontrunners:
“All We Imagine as Light” (Payal Kapadia, India)*
“Crossing” (Levan Akin, Sweden)*
“Emilia Pérez” (Jacques Audiard, France)*
“Kneecap” (Rich Peppiatt, Ireland)
“Universal Language” (Matthew Rankin, Canada)
Contenders:
“Armand” (Halfdan Ullmann Tøndel, Norway)*
“Baghdad Messi” (Sahim Omar Kalifa, Iraq)
“Dahomey” (Mati Diop, Senegal)*
“The Devil’s Bath” (Severin Fiala and Veronika Franz, Austria)
“The Door Is There” (Facundo Ponce de León and Juan Ponce de León, Uruguay)
“Drowning Dry” (Laurynas Bareiša, Lithuania)
“Evil Does Not Exist” (Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Japan)*
“Flow” (Gints Zilbalodis, Latvia)
“From Ground Zero” (Various Directors, Palestine)
“The Girl With the Needle” (Magnus von Horn, Denmark)*
“Grand Tour” (Miguel Gomes, Portugal)*
“Heaven is Beneath Mother’s Feet” (Ruslan Akun, Kyrgyzstan)
“Life” (Zeki Demirkubuz, Turkey)
“Old Fox” (Hsiao Ya-chuan, Taiwan)
“On Becoming a Guinea Fowl” (Rungano Nyoni, Zambia)*
“Parthenope” (Paolo Sorrentino, Italy)*
“The Seed of the Sacred Fig” (Mohammad Rasoulof, Germany)
“Santosh” (Sandhya Suri, United Kingdom)*
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