Champions League draw winners and losers: Predicted top eight after the new UCL league phase format

The league phase of the Champions League is set, the 36 contenders to lift the European Cup afforded their first real sense of what their path to Germany next May looks like. After more than two decades without a format change, there will certainly be new kinks and variants to this eight round race to the top eight that we cannot yet imagine. Indeed, some would contend it’s an act of folly to try to assess a competition before you’ve seen how it plays out in practice. But I quit a career in finance to write about football professionally — who could be better suited to this fool’s errand? Here are your winners, your losers and a first guesstimate at a top eight:

Winners: Fans of final day drama
Losers: Balanced schedule purists

The stage, then, is set for the start of a new era of European football. Thirty years after UEFA introduced the group stages, 21 after adopting the current format, a 36 team league is upon us. The inherent conservatism of the footballing community meant that this event had some justifying to do, Zlatan Ibrahimovic quite elegantly doing the leg work for Aleksander Ceferin. In truth no one will be convinced until they see how it plays out in practice.

The early signs are quite good. The old group stage might have ensured a more truly balanced schedule than this format promises to, but it was not without its drawbacks, as was blindingly apparent in many a matchday six. Yes, last season there was drama provided in Manchester United’s chaotic attempts to eliminate themselves in one of the most favorable groups they could have wished for, or the battle between four top sides to escape Group F, but more often than not the six rounds of group stage games felt like a remorseless slog to get most of the richest clubs in the sport into the knockout stages.

The league phase may well prove to be the same but, before the fixture lists have been finalised, there is at least the prospect of every week of the competition having meaningful contests through to a final week where an almighty amount of spots are up for grabs. Those top eight berths could be like gold dust, affording those competing on multiple fronts with much needed rest. Expect a brutal battle around 24th place to get into the knockout playoff, a similar scrap to get between ninth and 16th and get the valuable home leg second time around.

On first glance there appears to be a little more room for variability. A big side that has been afforded an unfortunate draw — Juventus for instance — might find themselves scrapping for their lives right until the end. Meanwhile why wouldn’t Celtic believe that they can get into the business end of the Champions League once more, given that this format affords them a fixture list where half of their games are against teams they might consider their peers. 

Also there was a great big button for the draw. What’s not to like?

Winners: Manchester City

If there was anyone feeling discombobulated by this new Champions League, Gianluigi Buffon and Cristiano Ronaldo up on the draw stage offered them an easy landing into this strange new world. First out of Pot One came Manchester City and with a whack of that big blue button Ronaldo delivered an extremely City-ish start to the competition for Pep Guardiola. 

In trips to Paris Saint-Germain, Juventus and Sporting there is the odd fixture that will afford Guardiola the chance to bafflingly overhype his opponents. Twenty minutes in Phil Foden and Erling Haaland will have walloped in three or four, City waving down imperiously from the top of the league. Something of a pity, however, that room couldn’t be found in the schedule for the customary meeting with RB Leipzig.

Losers: Paris Saint-Germain

Of the nine sides from pot one, might PSG be the early favorites to find themselves scrapping to reach the knockout stage at all, let alone the top eight? Certainly their fixture list looks as trying as that of almost anyone in the draw, encompassing trips to Bayern Munich, Arsenal, Salzburg and Stuttgart while Bayern Munich, Atletico Madrid, PSV Eindhoven and Girona rock up to the Parc des Princes. There is of course the talent in the PSG ranks — especially on the bench with Luis Enrique — to not only get the points required from those eight games but to actually prove themselves to be dark horses for the competition proper, but a squad in transition has been handed a run of games that would test even their best iterations. 

Winners: The Villa Park faithful

When you’ve waited 42 years to get back to the big time, you really aren’t going to be that worried that the Champions League draw might throw up a few heavy hitters for you to negotiate. If anything this is what you’ve been waiting for. Only six years ago Aston Villa were playing in the Championship, now they will be hosting some of the most prestigious names in the continental game. Juventus, Celtic and Bologna are all sure to bring wonderful travelling contingents to Witton but the stand out match will surely be a rerun of the 1982 final, memories of Peter Withe at De Kuip flooding back when Bayern Munich come to town.

To top it all off, a top 24 spot really ought not to be beyond Villa if they continue in the vein they have started this season. The direct running and energetic pressing of Amadou Onana and Morgan Rogers could really challenge European opponents while Unai Emery has already proven himself to be a man eminently capable of managing a continental campaign. The good times may well roll into the spring at Villa Park.

Winner: Martin Baturina

One of the brightest stars in the Dinamo Zagreb ranks, Martin Baturina already finds himself compared to Luka Modric and dubbed the next great Croatian midfielder. If he’s out to catch the eye of potential suitors and earn himself a move to one of Europe’s top five leagues, he won’t be short of opportunities. Dinamo travel to Bayern Munich and Salzburg, the latter a side with a rich track record of developing players into those ready made to excel at an even higher level. Most intriguing of all for Baturina might be a trip to Arsenal, who CBS Sports sources say have been keeping a close eye on the 21-year-old. What better opportunity to prove his worth than at the Emirates Stadium?

Losers: Bologna

Shorn of their head coach and two of their most important players — Joshua Zirkzee and Riccardo Calafiori — Bologna have had a trying start to their new season and were smashed 3-0 by Napoli at the weekend. The difficulties for Vincenzo Italiano might only mount in the weeks ahead with eight fixtures almost entirely composed of high grade opposition. Liverpool, Benfica and Aston Villa away with Borussia Dortmund and a fearless Shakhtar Donetsk side in the Stadio Renato Dall’Ara? That looks like tough sledding.

Top eight prediction

• Arsenal
• Barcelona
• Bayern Munich
• Inter
• Liverpool
• Manchester City
• PSV
• Real Madrid

Two sides had the look of top eight locks whatever the fixture AI threw up and there is nothing in the games that Real Madrid and Manchester City have ahead of them that would make you doubt that they will be in the round of 16. Bayern Munich, Liverpool, Arsenal and Inter sat in the category of teams who merely needed to avoid the most hellacious of draws. They broadly have, the Italian champions offsetting tough tasks against the top seeds with favorable luck in pots three and four.

It is rarely wise to predict more than a few hours ahead where Barcelona are concerned, but like Inter their games against lower ranked opposition could well afford nine or 10 of the roughly 15 that they would need for the top eight. 

That leaves room for one wild card. Why not PSV Eindhoven? They have started the new season like a house on fire, ought to fancy themselves against their pot two opponents and, in what looks like being the decisive factor in this new format, have navigable opponents from pots three or four.