College football Week 9 overreactions: Neither Ohio State or Texas will go far in CFP, Mizzou’s window closed
Texas and Ohio State entered the 2024 season as two major favorites to not only make the College Football Playoff, but win a national championship. Both have been a mainstay in the top five of the AP Poll, with the Longhorns claiming the No. 1 spot on two separate occasions.
Yet neither is going to make it very far in the postseason. This isn’t to say that they won’t get to the playoff at all; a field without them is unimaginable. It’s time to reset the lofty expectations surrounding both programs, though.
There are major cracks in the facade. Texas’ venerated offensive line has wilted over the past couple of games. The Longhorns surrendered seven sacks in a 30-15 loss to Georgia and then followed that up by letting Vanderbilt get to quarterback Quinn Ewers four times on Saturday. It tied a season high for the Commodores, who subsequently came just three points short of pulling off another massive upset.
For those keeping track, Texas has now allowed 14 sacks in four SEC games. Opponents only had three sacks against the Longhorns in non-conference play. That’s a serious red flag for Texas’ ability to consistently compete in big-time games.
It’s a similar story for Ohio State. The Buckeyes lost starting left tackle Josh Simmons against Oregon. Then his replacement, Zen Michalski, left Saturday’s 21-17 win against Nebraska with an apparent leg injury. The Buckeyes were thin at tackle before Simmons’ injury. Now they’re in dire straits.
The offensive line hasn’t been overly impressive anyway, especially in the run game. Ohio State only averaged 2.1 yards per carry against the Huskers. As such, the Buckeyes can hit on their fair share of explosive plays — quarterback Will Howard connected on touchdown passes of 40 and 60 yards — but they have trouble sustaining drives.
If 2024 has shown us anything, it’s that no college football team is anywhere near perfect. Ohio State and Texas don’t look like the juggernauts that preseason projections may have suggested, and each will have a ton of trouble in the postseason if recent results are any indication.
Here’s some other overreactions we were able to pull from Week 9.
Sam Pittman has saved his job
Few coaches entered 2024 sitting on a hotter seat than Arkansas’ Sam Pittman, who seemingly reached his peak in 2021 before steadily tumbling downhill in the years since. Some even assumed that the Razorbacks went out and hired his replacement — at least on an interim basis — when the program decided to bring Bobby Petrino back in his current offensive coordinator capacity.
And things started poorly for Pittman in this crucial year. The Razorbacks blew what could have been a big upset against an Oklahoma State team that’s turned out to be pretty awful, and they had an uninspiring performance against a UAB team that ranks near the bottom of the FBS.
Then came the upset win against then-No. 4 Tennessee. The Hawgs stifled Tennessee’s strong offense and earned their first home win against a top-5 opponent since 1999. It was a huge moment for Pittman. Arkansas kept the momentum rolling Saturday by beating Mississippi State 58-25 — and before you scoff, the Bulldogs had been competitive recently, covering games against both Texas and Georgia.
At 5-3, Arkansas has matched its best 8-game record under Pittman. The Razorbacks are also just one conference win away from matching Pittman’s best SEC record, and they’re almost assured a bowl game for the third time in the last four years under Pittman.
He’s done a great job this season, despite the tremendous external pressure. While there’s an argument to be made that he’s already done enough to deserve at least another year, he’ll get further chances to make a huge impression against the likes of Ole Miss, Texas and Missouri.
Pitt will push for the ACC championship
The assumption around the ACC, at least over the past month, is that it’s a two-team race between Clemson and Miami. There are at least a couple of teams that are starting to complicate things a bit, including a surging Pittsburgh squad that has largely flown under the radar despite storming to its best start (7-0) since 1982, when Dan Marino was leading the Panthers.
What’s been most impressive during Pitt’s run is the fact that it has found multiple ways to win games. Early on, the Panthers rode the arm of quarterback Eli Holstein, who has maintained a steady level of play, but recently the defense has taken over.
Pitt had two pick-sixes and five interceptions in Thursday’s win against Syracuse. The Panthers have allowed just 28 points in their last two games, and have held three of their last four opponents under 20 points.
They’ll certainly have an opportunity to make a major impression over the final month. Pittsburgh has huge games against No. 22 SMU (4-0 in ACC play) and No. 9 Clemson (5-0) in November. Split those, at the very least, and that will put Pat Narduzzi’s squad in excellent position.
Missouri’s window is closed
Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz might stand on business, but he’s not in the business of leading his team to any sort of College Football Playoff. This was supposed to be the year for the Tigers.
Realistically speaking, 2024 will be the last time that stars Brady Cook and Luther Burden III — who have won so many games for Missouri over the past couple years — suit up together at the collegiate level. The schedule should have been an absolute cakewalk, lending itself to postseason heights that the program has never reached.
With Saturday’s 34-0 loss to Alabama, Missouri dropped to 2-2 in conference play and dropped out of the playoff race. That result is tied for Missouri’s second-largest shutout loss since 2000, and it’s the first time in a decade that the Tigers have been shutout against an AP-ranked team.
The Tigers were outscored 75-10 in those two SEC losses. While they didn’t have Cook for a half against the Crimson Tide, that doesn’t excuse an earlier 41-10 defeat at the hands of Texas A&M.
Those results are a stark reminder of where Missouri stands in the SEC pecking order, especially since programs like Texas and Oklahoma are in the mix now. If the Alabama game is any indication of what Missouri looks like without Cook, the Tigers and Drinkwitz may never get this close again, especially if a progressive NIL approach is somewhat neutered by the looming revenue-sharing era.
That could be wraps on the Mike Locksley era
Maryland’s not going to do anything with Mike Locksley this year. His tenure has been an overall positive for the program, but every week shines more light on the fact that the Terrapins have already hit their ceiling with Locksley leading the way.
The last couple of weeks have been a microcosm of his career in College Park. Maryland looked to be turning the corner with a huge come-from-behind win against USC in Week 8, downing one of the Big Ten’s flashy new additions and one of the most recognizable brands in college football in thrilling fashion.
That momentum lasted less than a week. The Terps dropped to 4-4 on the year, with a 1-4 record in Big Ten play, Saturday with a 48-23 loss to Minnesota. Three of their four Big Ten losses have come by 14 points, and they’re averaging a minus-13.6 point differential in conference play. With upcoming games against No. 1 Oregon and No. 3 Penn State, things aren’t going to get much better.
One step forward, two steps back has been a recurring theme for Locksley. Maryland shouldn’t tolerate that for much longer.
MORE: A dispatch from Nashville, where Texas shows more flaws by the week
