Barring an upset in Saturday’s ACC championship game between Clemson and SMU, Alabama might be headed back to the College Football Playoff for the ninth time in the past 11 seasons.
The Crimson Tide were ranked No. 11 in the CFP selection committee’s penultimate rankings Tuesday, one spot ahead of Miami. The Tide lost three times under first-year coach Kalen DeBoer, including an unsightly 24-3 defeat at Oklahoma on Nov. 23.
The Hurricanes suffered their second defeat of the season Saturday, 42-38 at Syracuse. Miami would be the first team left out of the 12-team playoff based on the current rankings because the fifth-highest-rated conference champion would jump it.
Since neither Alabama nor Miami qualified for their respective conference championship games, it would seem the Hurricanes would have a difficult time jumping the Tide in the final rankings, which will be released by the selection committee Sunday.
CFP selection committee chairman Warde Manuel said on ESPN’s rankings release show Tuesday night that teams not competing in championship games this weekend, including Alabama and Miami, wouldn’t have their rankings changed because they’re not playing another game.
“Any team that is not playing right now, we don’t have a data point to rearrange where we have those teams ranked, and so that is set in terms of how we see them going into the final week of championship week,” Manuel said. “There’s nothing that’s going to change for us to evaluate them any differently than we have now.
“Those teams who are not playing cannot be adjusted in terms of where they are compared to other teams that are not playing, but the championship [game] teams we will evaluate that data point to determine if there needs to be any movement, based on how the performance of the game goes.”
The FULL College Football Playoff top 25 rankings 🔥 pic.twitter.com/GuL2GvJrka
— ESPN (@espn) December 4, 2024
Manuel noted that Alabama is 3-1 against teams ranked by the committee, and Miami is 0-1. The Tide are 6-1 against opponents with winning records, and the Hurricanes are 4-2.
“Both have had some losses that weren’t what they wanted out of those games, but in the last three games, Miami has lost twice, and so for us, in evaluating that body of work, we felt that Alabama got the edge over Miami,” Manuel said.
Undefeated Oregon remained No. 1 in the selection committee’s rankings, followed by Texas, Penn State, Notre Dame and Georgia.
Ohio State, which was on the wrong end of a stunning 13-10 loss to Michigan at home on Saturday, fell four spots to No. 6. Tennessee, SMU, Indiana and Boise State rounded out the top 10.
After Alabama and Miami, Ole Miss was No. 13 and South Carolina was No. 14.
Based on the current rankings, the top four conference champions that would receive first-round byes in the 12-team bracket are Oregon, Texas, SMU and Boise State.
If Boise State loses to UNLV in Friday’s Mountain West Conference championship game, the winner of Saturday’s Big 12 championship game between No. 15 Arizona State and No. 16 Iowa State would probably be the fourth-highest-rated conference champion.
The first-round matchups, based on the current rankings, would look like this: No. 12 Arizona State at No. 5 Penn State; No. 11 Alabama at No. 6 Notre Dame; No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Georgia; and No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Ohio State.
“It could change. It all depends on the outcome of these [conference championship] games,” Manuel said. “As we have said, we have high regard for those who are playing in those conference championships.”
But Alabama might not be completely out of the woods if Clemson beats SMU in Saturday’s ACC championship game. If the Tigers were to secure the ACC’s automatic bid, the selection committee would have to decide whether to include the 11-2 Mustangs or the 9-3 Crimson Tide.
Miami’s ranking did not sit well with its league. In a statement, released after the show concluded, ACC commissioner Jim Phillips said the conference was “incredibly shocked and disappointed” that the Hurricanes fell six spots to No. 12 and added coach Mario Cristobal’s team “absolutely deserves better from the committee.”
“As we look ahead to the final rankings,” he said, “we hope the committee will reconsider and put a deserving Miami in the field.”
Cristobal had argued this week that the Hurricanes (10-2) were deserving because they’d lost fewer games than other teams under consideration for one of the final at-large bids.
“We won 10 games this year and not many teams have,” Cristobal said Tuesday in his weekly appearance on WQAM, the Hurricanes’ flagship radio station. “And in our losses, those losses came down to one possession. That’s a very different résumé than the 9-3 teams’. The awards should go to the teams that are actually winning the games, not the ones that are politicking themselves out of losses.”
The Hurricanes, as Manuel alluded to, lost two of their past three games — they also fell 28-23 at Georgia Tech on Nov. 9 — and they didn’t beat a team currently ranked by the CFP.
Along with losing at Oklahoma, the Crimson Tide fell 40-35 at Vanderbilt and 24-17 at Tennessee. Alabama did defeat three teams ranked by the CFP this week: Georgia, South Carolina and Missouri.
“We’re one of the 12 best teams, the way we see it,” DeBoer said on “The Pat McAfee Show” on Tuesday.
The committee ranked the Tide higher than two other SEC teams with three losses: Ole Miss and South Carolina. (The Gamecocks have won six games in a row.)
Iowa State was No. 16 in the CFP rankings, followed by Clemson, BYU, Missouri and UNLV. Illinois, Syracuse, Colorado, Army and Memphis closed the top 25.
Army returned to the rankings, while Syracuse and Memphis are ranked for the first time this season. Tulane, Texas A&M and Kansas State fell out of the top 25 after losing last week.
The four first-round games will be played at the home campus of each higher-seeded team on Dec. 20 and 21.
The four quarterfinal games will be staged at the VRBO Fiesta Bowl, Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl, Rose Bowl presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
The two semifinal games will take place at the Capital One Orange Bowl and Goodyear Cotton Bowl on Jan. 9 and 10.
The CFP National Championship presented by AT&T is scheduled for Jan. 20 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
