Prisco’s 2025 Super Bowl pick: In Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs we trust; QB leads game-winning drive vs. Eagles

NEW ORLEANS — How do you pick against Patrick Mahomes in the biggest game of the year?

You don’t.

That’s the simple way to make a pick for Super Bowl LIX. When the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles take the field Sunday at the Caesars Superdome, the Eagles will do so with a better roster, more top-end players and a physical style that exudes bully ball.

But the Eagles don’t have Mahomes.

He is Mr. Clutch, maybe the best ever at getting it done when his team is down or needs him to make a play. The Chiefs are 6-1 this season when trailing in the fourth quarter. In nine playoff games where the Chiefs were behind in the fourth quarter, Mahomes has won six of them and lost two others in overtime after tying it. He is 3-0 in come-from-behind victories in the Super Bowl.

You picking against that?

Mahomes might not have put up gaudy numbers this season, but there were reasons. The speed at receiver was lacking for much of the year, but it’s better now with Hollywood Brown joining Xavier Worthy. The offensive line had issues, which sped up Mahomes. That led to him being pressured a lot. With Joe Thuney moving from left guard to left tackle late in the season, that has been solidified.

He faces a tough challenge against the Vic Fangio-coached Eagles defense. After a slow start, they emerged as the best defense in the NFL. It is a defense that doesn’t blitz a lot and plays a lot of zone. Mahomes is better against man defense, but his improvement against zone — which was a problem because of a lack of patience early in his career — will be important in this one. The Chiefs also have to block the Eagles’ big-time front, led by Jalen Carter at tackle. I think Andy Reid and Mahomes will scheme up things to get the ball out quickly and neutralize that front. 

The Eagles will counter Mahomes with their own superstar in running back Saquon Barkley. He has been amazing this season, his first with the team, and has continued his special play in the playoffs. He is a big-play threat every time he touches the football.

Barkley runs behind the best offensive line in the league. They are physical and tough, which will challenge a Chiefs defense that has been pretty good against the run. That’s where defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s wizardry will come into play. He is one of the best ever at showing a variety of different looks to take away areas of an offense.

Taking away Barkley is paramount for the Chiefs defense. Look for some interesting wrinkles from Spagnuolo to attempt to do so.

That could put the game on the right arm and legs of Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts. He hasn’t had a great season, but he’s been solid and he hasn’t been asked to do so much with Barkley running wild. The Eagles were last in the league in passing attempts for a reason. He might have to do more here.

When these teams met in the Super Bowl two years ago, Hurts was special. He threw for 304 and rushed for 70 with three touchdowns. He was the best player on the field that day. But he hasn’t played to that level this season. It doesn’t mean he can’t. His ability to pull the football off the zone reads could be key. He also has to hit the big shots to A.J. Brown when Brown gets the one-on-one chances on the outside.

Like it always does in these big games, it will come down to Mahomes. This will again be a tight game in the fourth quarter. Mahomes and the Chiefs offense will need a touchdown to win it.

Are you going to pick against him doing it? 

I am not.

Mahomes will lead the Chiefs on a historic drive against the Eagles zone defense and the line will block up the front well enough to allow him to do it. He will hit Worthy for the game-winning score in the final minutes to pull off the three-peat, becoming the first team in the Super Bowl era to win three straight Super Bowls.

At 29, Mahomes will be stamping himself as the GOAT of the quarterbacks — yes, ahead of Tom Brady

He is the NFL’s Michael Jordan. That’s saying something. Three-peat was a Jordan thing. By Sunday night, it will be a Mahomes thing, too.

Pick: Chiefs 30, Eagles 27