Today’s top games to watch, best bets, odds: WNBA doubleheader, massive MLB slate and more
Mathematically speaking, some things just aren’t adding up when it comes to Indiana Fever star Caitlin Clark and the team’s mixed results this season.
The first puzzling equation lies in the fact that the Fever are 5-5 with Clark in the lineup and 5-5 without her despite their official record of 9-10 heading into Friday’s game when they host the Atlanta Dream (7:30 p.m. ET).
The mystery of the missing game — 20 contests played, 19 officially recorded — is easily solved. The Fever’s 74-59 victory over the Minnesota Lynx in the Commissioner’s Cup final last week, minus an injured Clark, doesn’t count toward WNBA regular-season records. The question of how the Fever have managed some of their biggest wins of the year without the league’s biggest star doesn’t come with such an easy answer.
Clark returned from a quad injury Wednesday to score 10 points on 4-of-12 shooting in an 80-61 home loss to the Golden State Valkyries. Clark, in her first appearance, added six assists and five rebounds while logging 25 minutes. Kelsey Mitchell led Indiana with 12 points on just 3-of-13 shooting.
Now, no sports observer with a half-functioning brain would dare offer the tin-foil-shaded take that the Fever are somehow better off without Clark, who is averaging 17.4 points, 8.6 assists and 5.1 rebounds per game. However, a more logical observation is whether the Fever have a subconscious letdown when Clark is on the floor, and coach Stephanie White essentially suggested as much as she lamented the Fever’s poor effort.
“I felt our energy and competitive fire were not there, and that’s disappointing,” said White, whose team was outrebounded 47-36 and sent the Valkyries to the free-throw line 21 times (they made 16).
Now, the Fever will attempt to snap a two-game skid against a Dream outfit that is coming off a 90-81 victory over Golden State behind 24 points from Allisha Gray. Four starters scored in double figures.
In addition to a WNBA doubleheader, Friday’s sporting landscape also features a 15-game MLB slate. Below is a snapshot of what to watch and bet at the top sportsbooks on Friday, July 11. All times Eastern.
WNBA best bets today, where to watch
Dream at Fever
Time: 7:30 p.m. | Location: Indianapolis | TV: ION
SportsLine picks — Expert (Fever -2.5)
SportsLine WNBA experts Calvin Wetzel and Aaron Barzilai say they believe the Fever are in a prime bounce-back spot in this matchup. They reason the team’s recent struggles have led to an adjustment in the point spread that favors the small home favorite. While accounting for home-court advantage, the WNBA analysts believe this spread translates to a pick ’em on a neutral court, which they believe sells the Fever short.
MLB best bets today, where to watch
Dodgers at Giants
Time: 10:15 p.m. | Location: San Francisco | TV: MLB Network
SportsLine picks — Model (Over 7.5 runs) | Expert (Dodgers +110, Matt Snyder)
The SportsLine Projection Model loves the Over 7.5 runs in this showdown between NL West rivals. The model’s 10,000-game simulation sees the Giants and Dodgers blowing past the total about 66% of the time, a massive value position against the implied sportsbook odds of 52.8%. What’s more, the model’s projected score of 4.7-4.6 (in San Francisco’s favor) suggests the clubs will surge past the total by nearly two full runs.
However, SportsLine MLB expert Matt Snyder (+575 in last 29 San Francisco picks) likes the situational play on the Dodgers, who have lost six straight. He says the play is basically based on the principle of taking the Dodgers with a plus-money price as a home underdog and their motivation to snap their losing steak against their divisional rivals.
More MLB best bets
Looking ahead: UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira
Time: 9 p.m. Saturday (main card) | Location: Nashville | TV: ESPN
SportsLine expert picks: MMA analyst Kyle Marley’s top picks
Fight fans have a solid UFC card to watch Saturday as the UFC returns to Nashville with a main event featuring heavyweight sluggers. The star of the show is two-time heavyweight title challenger Derrick Lewis, who remains a fan favorite because of his one-punch knockout power and irreverent sense of humor that have made his post-fight interviews as big a part of his legacy as his fighting accomplishments. He is taking on prospect Tallison Teixeira, who is headlining in his just second appearance for the promotion.
The 40-year-old Lewis is the UFC’s all-time knockout leader with 15. Although his name might carry the marquee, the depth-lacking heavyweight division is desperate for an infusion of fresh talent and this card serves as a step-up showcase for Teixeira, a 25-year-old Brazilian who is 8-0 with seven knockouts. He beat journeyman Justin Tafa by first-round knockout in his UFC debut in February.
SportsLine MMA expert Kyle Marley says he believes we will see wild action for as long as the fight lasts, but he expects the younger and heavily favored Teixeira (-300) to get his hand raised against the fading veteran Lewis (+240). Click the link above to see the rest of Marley’s UFC Fight Night predictions.
