Key takeaways as early local election results indicate major losses for Tories | Local elections
At the start of a long weekend of election results, the first outcomes have been every bit as dire for the Conservatives and Rishi Sunak as analyst had predicted. With fewer than a third of the council elections declared, and none of metro mayoral yet in, here is the current state of play.
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1. Labour has won the Blackpool South byelection with a 26-point swing
The “red wall” seat was retaken by Labour after the third largest Tory-to-Labour swing ever. Almost as ominously for the Conservatives, they managed to beat Reform UK by only 117 votes. Keir Starmer described this as a “seismic win” and a “truly historic result”. The byelection was triggered after Scott Benton stood down in March over a lobbying scandal.
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2. The Conservative party is on course to lose up to 500 council seats
The Conservatives have already lost more than 100 council seats on a night of heavy losses for the party. The political scientist Prof Sir John Curtice said the party was “basically losing half the seats they’re trying to defend”. If that continued, he added, they could end up losing about 500 seats. Speaking to the BBC’s Today programme he said the party seemed to be on course for “one of the worst, if not the worst Conservative performance in local government elections for the last 40 years”.
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3. Sunak will lead party into general election, says Tory chair
Richard Holden, the Conservative party chair, said that although the results have not been great for the Tories, there is no chance of Rishi Sunak being replaced. Speaking to Times Radio, he said: “The prime minister is going to go on and lead the Conservative party into the general election, there’s no doubt about that.” Asked for his response to the results so far, Holden said: “Not a great set of results but coming off I think it would be fair to say a very high watermark in 2021.”
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4. So far Labour has gained control of four councils
The party has taken Rushmoor and Redditch from the Conservatives; and Hartlepool and Thurrock, both from no overall control. The Conservatives have lost control of three councils. The full results are available here.
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5. Labour loses control of Oldham council
Gains by independents meant that Labour lost its small majority in Oldham council, an area with a large Muslim population. Arooj Shah, the Labour leader of Oldham council, rejected suggestions that Starmer’s response to the Israel-Gaza war was to blame. Shah said there had been “divisive, toxic politics” in Oldham for the last five years and that problems in the town were ultimately linked to Tory austerity.
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6. The Liberal Democrats have gained seats but no councils so far
The Lib Dems retained control of Winchester, after winning eight of the first 10 seats to declare. Daisy Cooper, the party’s deputy leader, said: “The Liberal Democrats are on the up with gaining councillors across the country, from Hampshire to Stockport. The Liberal Democrats’ winning streak continues and we are ready to beat Conservative MPs and finally get this chaotic government out of office.”
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7. Labour fails to take control of Harlow
Harlow, a key bellwether seat in the general election, had been targeted by the party in the local election with visits by Starmer and Angela Rayner, the deputy Labour leader, on Wednesday. Starmer said Labour needs to win “in places like Harlow”. The Tories went into the local elections with 21 of the seats on the council, and Labour holding the other 12. The Tories now have 17 seats, and Labour 16.
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