Big Ten Confidential: Penn State’s offense has what Michigan sorely needs for Texas matchup
Life is a series of contradictions, and one is already on full display after Week 1 of the college football season. While you should never take anything from any team’s first game of the season too seriously, we now live in a world that includes a 12-team College Football Playoff that will feature seven at-large teams. So, while we shouldn’t assume Penn State’s offense has it all figured out now and the Nittany Lions are a juggernaut (admittedly, I kind of want to, but the Lions tore West Virginia apart in their opener last season, too), the win will count all the same come the end of the year.
And for the Big Ten, Week 1 was a successful one when it comes to CFP resume building.
The new 18-team league went 17-1 overall, and while the lone loss was Minnesota falling to North Carolina, nobody came into the season looking at Minnesota as a team competing for a playoff spot. They certainly aren’t anymore.
The league’s two other games against Power Four opponents resulted in victory with Penn State smacking West Virginia 34-12 in a game that was delayed for a while due to storms, and USC handed the league its highest-profile victory, beating LSU 27-20 Sunday night in a standalone, primetime showcase.
Want to ingratiate yourself with Big Ten fans? Beat an SEC team in your first game.
Of course, it wasn’t a perfect weekend. While Ohio State handled business in a 52-6 win over Akron that introduced freshman receiver Jeremiah Smith (six receptions for 92 yards and two touchdowns) to the world, Michigan looked shaky against Fresno State, even if it ended up winning 30-10. Then there was Oregon, whose Big Ten debut was quite the opposite of USC’s as the Ducks held on for dear life to beat Idaho 24-14.
Perhaps of more importance to the Big Ten’s playoff interests is the struggles of the SEC over the weekend. Georgia treated Clemson like a JV squad, winning 34-3, but Florida lost at home to Miami by 24 and Texas A&M lost by 10 at home to Notre Dame. Then there was LSU’s loss to USC.
Those are three high-profile losses that could end up hurting the SEC’s at-large chances while simultaneously helping the Big Ten.
Of course, while the Big Ten has the head-to-head advantage now, there are a couple more big matchups coming, including this weekend’s showdown between Michigan and Texas, but it’s an encouraging start all the same.
So about Penn State …
I’m trying not to get overly confident about what I saw from Penn State against West Virginia, but it’s hard. The defense was as expected, even with yet another coordinator change, but coming into the season, the bigger questions were about the offense. More specifically, would Andy Kotelnicki finally be the play-caller to unlock the potential of this unit?
For at least one game, Penn State’s offense gave you everything you wanted to see.
There were explosive plays in the passing game! Last year, the biggest gripe on Drew Allar was that he wasn’t successful throwing down the field. Some of it was on Allar, but plenty was on the scheme and the lack of playmakers in the passing game. Well, after posting an explosive pass rate of 12.3% last season, which ranked 114th nationally, the Nittany Lions currently lead the nation in explosive passing at a ri-damn-diculous 38.9% after one game.
How did this happen so quickly? Like last year, it’s a combination of Allar, the scheme and having a playmaker in the passing game. Harrison Wallace was mostly ineffective last season as he dealt with injuries all year that cost him five games. He was healthy on Saturday, though, and finished with five catches for 117 yards (23.4 per) and two touchdowns.
One aspect of Andy Kotelnicki’s offenses I’ve always appreciated is how he uses pre-snap motion and different formations to confuse defenses and get defenders flowing in the wrong direction at the snap. You saw numerous examples of this from West Virginia, and Penn State was more than happy to take advantage.
What truly excites me, though, are the possibilities of what this team can do with Allar. James Franklin was extremely happy to point out that Allar threw 25 touchdowns to only two interceptions last season, but that stat without context was meaningless. Allar didn’t turn the ball over because he was too cautious and threw a lot of short passes. Allar’s average of 7.3 air yards per attempt last season ranked 111th among 125 qualified QBs.
It was frustrating to watch because, talent-wise, there’s a strong case to be made that Allar is the most NFL-ready quarterback in the Big Ten this season. He has the size and the mobility, and he has a strong arm that was holstered far too frequently in 2023. Andy Kotelnicki had him pull it out against the Mountaineers to the tune of 11.3 air yards per attempt.
It’s one game, and consistent performances separate the elite from everybody else. If Allar, Kotelnicki and the Penn State offense keep this up all season, the Nittany Lions are a legitimate threat to win the Big Ten.
Three hot takes
Every week I promise to deliver three opinions that could very easily be proven wrong in the near future. The takes will range from Blazing to This Feels Warm, indicating how likely they are to be proven false.
Blazing — Iowa will score 30 points per game: Yeah, yeah, yeah, it was against Illinois State, but did you watch Iowa’s offense? The first half was a mess and extremely concerning, but the offense that was promised showed up after halftime. The results were great, but the process truly stood out to me.
Iowa pushed the ball vertically in the passing game, and not just to tight ends. They threw to receivers! There were 55 FBS quarterbacks who threw at least 10 passes of 10 air yards or more this weekend, and only five completed at least 80% of their attempts. USC’s Miller Moss was one, as was Purdue’s Hudson Card (Card was 24-for-25 against Indiana State!). Cade McNamara was one of the five, too, completing eight of his 10 attempts. Iowa State could quickly make me look stupid here, but I think Iowa’s offense is genuinely good.
Will Leave A Scar If Touched — Wisconsin might be the new Iowa: I’m not feeling very optimistic after watching the Badgers against Western Michigan! Tyler Van Dyke (21/36, 192 yards) looked ordinary, and the offense severely lacked explosiveness. Seriously, after Week 1, the Badgers offense ranks 128th nationally in explosive play rate at 3.7%, and it wasn’t simply one aspect of the offense. Its 2.8% explosive pass rate ranks 129th, and its 4.3% explosive run rate ranks 108th.
Perhaps it was a vanilla game plan against a team the Badgers felt they’d crush, or perhaps we should be concerned. Bucky gets South Dakota this week, but Alabama comes to town in Week 3 before a road game against USC. There’s not much time left to find big plays before they’re desperately needed.
This Feels Warm — Michigan’s offensive line is a bigger problem than its QB situation: Given how incredible Michigan’s defense is, I’m not overly concerned about the Wolverines offense in most games. However, if we don’t see huge improvement, the games against Texas, Oregon and Ohio State (and maybe I should include USC here, too) will be problematic. And while the quarterback situation left a lot to be desired against Fresno State — Davis Warren and Alex Orji combined for 4.5 yards per attempt — I was more bothered by what I saw from the offensive line.
The biggest red flag came on a third-and-1 in which the Wolverines had nine players on the line of scrimmage and couldn’t get the yard against a Fresno State team that may have one of the better defensive fronts in the Mountain West but is still Fresno State.
The good news is it’s a new line and logic dictates it should improve as the season goes on. If it does, I’d bet Michigan’s passing attack will improve, too.
Excuse me?
Quick word on Oregon
I was not expecting to watch much of Oregon’s game against Idaho on Saturday, but I found myself forced to flip over when I saw Idaho was within a score during the third quarter and closed the gap to three points with just under 10 minutes left in the fourth.
Upon rewatching the entire game, I feel confident saying that while it was an uninspiring performance from the Ducks, I’m not overly concerned. Though, I do have some concerns.
The offensive line was banged up and not at full health in the game, and it showed. The other part that showed was how different life could be with Dillon Gabriel than it was with Bo Nix. Gabriel is a good college quarterback, but there’s a reason he’s still in college.
Oregon’s passing attack with Gabriel featured a lot of short passes (he averaged 4.2 air yards per attempt), with 13 of Gabriel’s 49 pass attempts being behind the line of scrimmage. Furthermore, 37 of those attempts were either between the hashmarks or to the left side of the field. This is nothing new for Gabriel; he’s always been better to his left than to his right. However, I fear it could become a problem against the better defenses the Ducks will face. Bo Nix threw a lot of short passes in this offense, too, but he was more effective pushing the ball downfield when asked than what I’ve seen from Gabriel in his career, and he was able to use all parts of the field.
Fun fact of the week
Athan Kaliakmanis made his Rutgers debut Thursday night after transferring from Minnesota, and it was a successful one. Kaliakmanis threw for 147 yards and three touchdowns, but as you can see from the post above, they weren’t the most stressful touchdown throws!
The longest score was a 34-yard touchdown pass to Samuel Browne that included 33 yards after the catch. Of course, while the stat is comical, it was an impressive debut for the Knights, and they don’t need Kaliakmanis to be Patrick Mahomes. They need him to do what he did: give them a credible passing threat.
Thoughts on Max Brosmer and the Gophers
Minnesota lost 19-17 to North Carolina Thursday night when Dragan Kesich’s 47-yard field goal drifted wide right as time expired, ending a frustrating game for any fan of offensive football. I went into the game interested in seeing how new Minnesota QB Max Brosmer would fare in this offense.
Brosmer is the replacement for Athan Kaliakmanis, and the thought was that Brosmer, who set records at New Hampshire, would bring a more dynamic passing attack to Dinkytown. Early returns are murky at best.
Brosmer finished 13 of 21 for 166 yards through the air and was sacked five times. While he didn’t throw any interceptions, he did have a costly fumble in the fourth quarter that led to a North Carolina field goal.
Upon rewatch, it became clear to me that Brosmer looked very much the part of a new QB learning a new playbook whose first game with his new team came against a Power Four opponent. In an ideal world, Minnesota was starting the season with an FCS opponent. But that wasn’t the case, and it was a tough start. While the Minnesota offensive line didn’t have a great night pass-blocking, part of the trouble was Brosmer’s lack of anticipation early and the overall inability of Minnesota receivers to get open.
Brosmer’s anticipation improved as the game went on, but his accuracy was spotty at best. A lot of his completions were thrown behind receivers, costing them valuable yards after the catch opportunities. The scouting reports I heard on Brosmer all talked about his accuracy being a strength, so perhaps that’s something that’ll improve as he gets more comfortable in the offense.
My two favorite throws were not spectacular plays. In fact, one was an incompletion. With Minnesota ahead 14-10 and facing a third-and-9 at its 26 in the third quarter, Brosmer made a nice throw on a deep out route from the slot. He showed good anticipation, getting rid of the ball before his target got out of his break, but Cristian Driver rounded out his route far too much, causing him to be late to the sideline, which was where the ball was thrown. It goes as an incompletion for Brosmer, but a better route leads to a catch and a first down.
The next play came during Minnesota’s crucial final possession. With 44 seconds left, trailing 19-17 and not in field goal range, Minnesota faced a second-and-12. Brosmer gives his first read(s) to the right time, but not too much, scans back across the middle of the field and immediately recognizes tight end Jameson Geers has his man beat. Brosmer does not hesitate and fires a dart over the middle to Geers. It doesn’t convert for a first, but it puts the Gophers closer to field goal range and in a makeable third-down spot.
Then Minnesota runs the ball twice to settle for a long field goal attempt, and we know how it goes. I wasn’t a fan of those decisions, but I’ll get to them in a bit because there was another good play Brosmer made that didn’t work out and led to more frustrating playcalls.
With five minutes to play, the Gophers had a first-and-goal from the 10 while trailing 16-14. Brosmer showed excellent anticipation, delivering a ball to Elijah Spencer in the end zone when he saw the defender covering Spencer turn his back to the ball. The throw wasn’t incredible, but it was catchable, and you’d like to see Spencer reel it in.
After it fell incomplete, the Gophers ran the most predictable run on Earth on second down and threw a short pass to Jordan Nubin in the flat on third down. They were both “don’t screw this up” playcalls that saw the Gophers playing for a field goal rather than a touchdown. They got the field goal this time, but North Carolina answered with a field goal of its own, which led to the final possession and the Minnesota coaching staff once again getting too conservative in crunch time.
On the one hand, it’s hard to blame the Gophers staff. Not having Darius Taylor available was a big loss to overcome, and in the passing game, outside of Daniel Jackson, I didn’t see many Gopher targets winning battles against a North Carolina defense that has been very gettable in recent seasons. On the other hand, if you’re going to go into the portal to find a veteran quarterback whom you believe will give you a better chance in the passing game, give him the chance to make you look smart in crucial moments.
The good news is this is only one game, and it’s a nonconference game at that. The next two games against Rhode Island and Nevada should give everybody a chance to get some of the kinks ironed out, but the Gophers will have to do it quickly. After those two games, it’s Iowa, Michigan and USC.
Name to learn
What if I told you there was a Bret Bielema team with a running back listed at 6-foot-3, 250 pounds, who has hit speeds of over 20 mph in games before? Would that be of interest to you?
Kaden Feagin rushed for 438 yards as a freshman at Illinois last year and got the 2024 season started with a 108-yard performance against Eastern Illinois. It’s a name you’ll probably hear more often in the coming months.
Going With My Gut
Every week I pick the Big Ten games against the spread based on nothing but my gut reaction to the number. No digging into numbers — just vibes, baby. I even track my record to embarrass myself publicly. Odds via SportsLine consensus.
Texas at Michigan: A huge game for both teams and their respective leagues. Texas looked very good last week in a 52-0 win over Colorado State, but a road game against Michigan’s defense will prove to be far more difficult. The question is, how much do you trust Michigan to put points on the board after what we saw against Fresno State? This doesn’t strike me as the kind of game the Wolverines can hope to win 13-10 because the Longhorns have one of the few offensive lines in the country you can expect to hold their own against Michigan’s front seven. I can’t say I’m excited about taking the Longhorns as a touchdown favorite in The Big House, but I’d be less comfortable siding with the Michigan offense. Texas -7
Duke at Northwestern — Duke +3
Bowling Green at Penn State — Bowling Green +35
Akron at Rutgers — Rutgers -23
Iowa State at Iowa — Iowa -2.5
Michigan State at Maryland — Michigan State +9.5
Eastern Michigan at Washington — Washington -27
Kansas at Illinois — Illinois +6
Western Michigan at Ohio State — Ohio State -38.5
Colorado at Nebraska — Nebraska -7
Boise State at Oregon — Oregon -18.5
Utah State at USC — Utah State +28.5
There are no lines for Big Ten games against FCS competition as of publication.
Last Week: 10-7
2024 Season: 10-7
