It’s been nearly two years since Oleksandr Usyk and Daniel Dubois first met in the ring, on a night that tested both men differently. Since then, both have elevated their positions in the heavyweight division. Usyk, already a generational talent, cemented his legacy with back-to-back wins over Tyson Fury, outlasting and outsmarting the “Gypsy King.” Dubois has gone on a tear of his own, knocking out three top-tier heavyweights (Anthony Joshua, Filip Hrgovic and Jarrell Miller) who have a combined record of 71-3-1. He was the clear underdog in two of those fights (against Joshua and Hrgovic), yet he delivered under pressure.
Usyk and Dubois will run it again on Saturday, this time for the undisputed heavyweight championship, at London’s Wembley Stadium (DAZN PPV, 2 p.m. ET). Usyk won the first fight in 2023 by ninth-round KO. That fight played out like a high-speed chess match at first, but quickly ended in a surrender flooded by controversy.
Let’s get this out of the way early: Dubois landed what appeared to be a legal body punch that sent Usyk to the canvas in pain in Round 5, only for referee Luis Pabon to rule it a low blow. And almost two years later, the question for some remains: Was it a low blow or a legal punch? Regardless, Dubois lost the battle for ring positioning and lacked the tactical knowledge to navigate the intricate, spiderweb-like strategies I call being “Usyk’ed.”
In that first fight, Usyk, the southpaw technician, immediately exposed Dubois’ inability to react to feints. This weakness left Dubois struggling to anticipate Usyk’s jab and other offense from the outset. Usyk’s lead hand was a magic wand throughout the fight, constantly probing, measuring, clogging punching lanes and disrupting Dubois’ rhythm. It wasn’t just about landing punches for Usyk but also about getting past Dubois’ long arms and reactive defensive system. Dubois insisted on using his reflexes to parry or catch shots, and Usyk exploited the small openings left open by this defense.
Let’s look at that first fight, how both Usyk and Dubois have evolved since and anticipate how the rematch could play out.
Southpaw vs. orthodox: The battle for the lead hand is key
With both fighters’ lead hands aligned on the same side (Usyk is a southpaw and Dubois fights out of an orthodox stance), the struggle for control becomes constant. A guard in a higher position beats a lower-positioned hand nine times out of 10. Still, Usyk, who has the same reach as Dubois (78 inches) despite being two inches shorter, has a unique solution to land his jab. Lacking the natural size and physical strength of today’s giant heavyweights, Usyk, a longtime cruiserweight, has developed a jab that rises from a lower trajectory, almost shooting upward. He splits guards instead of just tapping them out of position. When fighters can land their jab consistently, they’ve found their timing. And with timing, they access an opponent’s rhythm — and can disrupt it.
Usyk found Dubois’ rhythm early in their fight and used his jab to quickly establish dominance, even taking control of the outside lead foot position, known as “lead foot dominance,” an edge sought out especially in a southpaw-orthodox battle.
Reading an opponent’s movement from outside punching range is a subtle art. A strategic fighter uses pre-engagement movements to sneak into mid-range, strike and exit safely. Usyk is a wizard in these transitions, using slips to evade the jab and left hand of Dubois, level changes and smart front foot pressure to repeatedly draw and offset Dubois’ pre-engagment movements. Conversely, Dubois lacked the know-how to enter the mid-range easily; at times, he would get timed on his way inside and out.
How Usyk changed the trajectory of the first fight
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Oleksandr Usyk drops Daniel Dubois to retain titles
Oleksandr Usyk knocks Daniel Dubois down a second time to finally finish the fight and retain his belts.
Dubois was routinely feinted out of position by Usyk in the first fight, forced into compromised positions. Usyk saw the patterns quickly: After Dubois would throw, he often would reset his position and stance with a subtle bounce in place, a rhythmic tell that became a green light signal for Usyk to counter.
Usyk made Dubois “dance,” controlling him like a puppet with strings pulled by feints, footwork and superior ring smarts. But momentum shifted briefly in the third round when Dubois adjusted his offense and focused on Usyk’s body, a long-known vulnerability. Even in the amateurs, Usyk had shown sensitivity to body shots, having once been dropped by then-amateur heavyweight phenom and former light heavyweight undisputed champion Artur Beterbiev in 2007.
Dubois began shoveling right hands to the midsection, forcing Usyk to retreat and make an adjustment, disrupting the champion’s flow and creating much-needed leverage that enabled Dubois to win a round. Dubois’s adjustment opened a new lane for his left hook, a punch underutilized against southpaws. The left hook from an orthodox stance can be challenging to pick up by a southpaw due to its peripheral path, appearing almost out of nowhere.
In an open stance battle, both fighters’ eyes are fixated on the back hand. As Dubois targeted the body, Usyk’s guards dropped slightly to protect his body, and Dubois’s left hook to the head landed occasionally, forcing Usyk to respect it in that third round. But Usyk made the proper adjustments. The tactical layers Usyk built in each round after the low blow proved too complex for Dubois to figure out. Usyk’s control of rhythm, timing, angles and pressure slowly suffocated Dubois’ intent to follow up his body attack. Usyk’s ability to read and manipulate shots, positioning and posture proved why he is one of boxing’s most cerebral and talented undisputed champions.
How the rematch could play out
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Dubois ready to do ‘whatever it takes’ to beat Usyk
Daniel Dubois speaks ahead of his heavyweight unification fight with Oleksandr Usyk.
Expect Usyk to start faster, with more urgency and a clear intent to inflict pain. He’s a master of adjustments, and history has shown he’s even better in rematches. The greats seem to have photographic memories; they remember every punch, every angle and every mistake their opponents made in the first fight. Usyk has already downloaded Dubois’ movements and tendencies. And he has already taken Dubois’ best shots.
I believe the punch that dropped Usyk probably should not have been ruled illegal because it landed on the top part of his groin protector, which was high up on his stomach, above his navel.
This second time around, if Dubois were to stray low, Usyk might go eye for an eye and retaliate. Dubois will make it a point to hit the body of Usyk; however, I think Usyk will now angle himself off, stepping inside close to Dubois’ lead shoulder before front foot shuffling around him like a matador does against a bull. Expect offense to come from his repositioning as he gains an advantageous position.
I also think Dubois will be a lot more aggressive in his approach. Watching film of the first fight, he may have discovered that the less he telegraphed his punches and the more he varied them in combinations, the more frequently he landed. Dubois is more dangerous when attacking and coming forward with momentum, so I can see Usyk trying to deny him that, moving forward himself more often and pushing Dubois back, keeping him off-balance.
How can Dubois beat Usyk?
Dubois will enter this rematch with confidence in his knockout ability, and rightfully so. He has transformed into a top heavyweight when many doubted him. His defeats seemed to have shaped and hardened him, as he has used those losses as lessons rather than allowing them to break his fighting spirit. Dubois has enhanced his overall game, improving in some areas that make him more dangerous today than ever.
He now mixes up his rhythm and varies the speed of his attacks, making him less predictable and harder to time as he explodes into mid-range. He stands his ground more, showing better defensive awareness during pre-engagement, and he’s cut down on the unnecessary bouncing after throwing combinations. His fifth-round knockout win over Anthony Joshua last September showcased this evolution. A gifted athlete with heavy hands and exceptional speed for a heavyweight, Dubois now adds a deeper ring IQ gained through experience.
In this rematch against Usyk, his explosive combinations can be a serious factor. Heavy pressure and volume have long been the orthodox fighter’s answer to southpaws, an old-school boxing tactic. Usyk’s toughest test, outside of Fury, was Derek Chisora. Chisora didn’t play the technical you-go-I-go game with Usyk when they met in 2020; he didn’t apply that lead foot dominance or lead hand control strategy. He just tried to steamroll Usyk. And for stretches, it worked. Though Chisora ultimately lost, he exposed some cracks in Usyk’s system and earned respect by doing what few others could: make it a shoot-out dog fight.
Dubois can’t afford to be hesitant. A skittish approach will make it easier for Usyk to pick him apart. Yes, the more you throw, the more you risk being countered; however, the reverse is also true. Doubled offense can be defense. Volume can overload even the best defensive systems, especially that of Usyk, who leans heavily on a high guard and precise footwork to fade in and out of range. Dubois is going to get hit either way. Usyk is a sniper from range with pinpoint accuracy. But Dubois has a better chance by going after Usyk, letting his hands go and forcing the action than by sitting back, trying to outthink a master tactician. Trying to solve Usyk’s puzzle piece by piece only plays into his plan, which is designed to confuse, slow down and mentally exhaust his opponents. Better to go out swinging than play a game that’s orchestrated in Usyk’s favor.
Might Usyk suffer from lack of motivation in the rematch?
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Behind the scenes with Oleksandr Usyk ahead of Daniel Dubois clash
James Regan visits Oleksandr Usyk’s training camp for his heavyweight unification fight against Daniel Dubois.
What’s driving Usyk right now? It has to be more than just titles; perhaps it’s legacy. I’m sure he has heard the critics claiming the Dubois punch that dropped him was legal, not low. Some even go so far as to say Usyk was knocked out and saved by the referee. That kind of talk doesn’t sit well with any boxer. I believe Usyk wants to erase any shadow of doubt and silence every critic by making it crystal clear that he’s the best heavyweight of this generation.
Right now, Usyk is super confident. He beat Fury not once, but twice. Stopped Dubois once already. He’s reached his dream, an undisputed championship in two weight classes. A long time ago, many people didn’t think he could be one of the best heavyweight champions since Lennox Lewis, but he proved them wrong. But here’s something important to remember: Fighters lose their greatness when they get complacent and stop challenging themselves.
Also, Father Time eventually takes over. I felt it in my boxing career. When you start questioning yourself or fear and or laziness enter undetected, things go downhill. Winning over and over again is hard. To keep getting better, you must keep that fire going inside, where you’re always trying to be better than you were yesterday. That inner battle keeps you strong, focused, safe — and great. Without it, even the most talented fighters can lose.
Who wins?
Dubois will come in confident, but confidence alone isn’t enough. Usyk has solved the Dubois puzzle once. The rematch will be even more enthusiastic than their first battle, but Usyk’s ring smarts, fast combat pace and refusal to lose will ultimately overwhelm Dubois again. Only this time, the end will come a little sooner.
I have Usyk by stoppage inside eight rounds. Dubois, the underdog, will gain liftoff, but the king will bring him crashing back down to earth.
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