2025 Indianapolis 500 odds, predictions, time, date, Indy 500 starting grid: Model gives surprising picks

The 2025 Indianapolis 500 will have a rookie on the pole, as Robert Schwartzman is preparing for the first oval race in his life. Schwartzman won the pole, but he is 8-1 in the 2025 Indianapolis 500 odds. Pato O’Ward is the 5-1 favorite atop the Indy 500 odds, followed by Alex Palou (11-2) and Scott Dixon (13-2). NASCAR star Kyle Larson, who is attempting the Indy 500-Coca-Cola 600 double, is an 18-1 longshot for Sunday’s race. Larson will begin his day at Indianapolis Motor Speedway at 12:45 p.m. ET, and his day will conclude at Charlotte Motor Speedway on Sunday night. Should you include Larson in your 2025 Indy 500 bets? Before scouring the 2025 Indy 500 starting grid and making any 2025 Indianapolis 500 predictions, be sure to see the latest 2025 Indianapolis 500 picks from SportsLine’s proven projection model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary auto racing prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

The model began the 2025 NASCAR season by calling Chase Elliott to win for a +300 payout at the Clash at Bowman Gray. Then it predicted Kyle Larson’s win in Miami for a +350 payout, and Christopher Bell’s (+600) All-Star victory. In 2024, it nailed Larson to win in Las Vegas for a 21-5 sports betting payout and predicted Denny Hamlin’s wins in Bristol at 5-1 and Richmond at 17-4. All told, the model has nailed a whopping 21 NASCAR winners since 2021.

It has been scorching hot when it comes to picking Formula 1 races dating back to 2021 as well. It nailed 10 victories across the 2021 and 2022 seasons and then forecasted Max Verstappen’s rise to prominence by calling all 19 of his wins during the 2023 season and each of his first seven wins in 2024. In all, it has called 32 of the last 51 Formula One winners dating back to 2023. Anyone who followed the model’s lead on those plays at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.

Now, the model simulated the 2025 Indianapolis 500 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected 2025 Indy 500 leaderboard.

Top 2025 Indianapolis 500 predictions

One surprise: the model is high on Alexander Rossi, even though he is an 18-1 longshot in the latest 2025 Indianapolis 500 odds. Rossi is with a new team (Ed Carpenter Racing) this season after spending two years with Arrow McLaren. The 2016 champion is seeking his second Indy 500 win after qualifying 14th with a speed of 231.701 mph over four laps on the 2.5-mile oval.

Rossi finished tenth in series points last year, but he has cracked the top five in five of his last seven Indy 500 appearances. He started and finished fourth last year, leading 12 laps. Given his experience at this track, Rossi should be higher on the Indy 500 odds board than he is, creating value as an 18-1 longshot. See who else to back at SportsLine.

And a massive shocker: Josef Newgarden, the two-time defending champion and one of the Vegas favorites, stumbles big-time and doesn’t crack the top five. Newgarden notched a podium in the season opener at St. Petersburg, but that’s just about the only success he’s experienced this year. He’s finished 10th or worse in every other race in 2025 and is on pace for his worst IndyCar finish in a decade. Newgarden sits 11th in the standings after being among the top eight in each of the last 10 years, which includes two championships and three second-place finishes.

Newgarden’s struggles are a microcosm of Team Penske’s struggles as a whole. Of its three drivers, multiple had top-5 IndyCar Series finishes each of the last three years, but Penske currently doesn’t have any driver in the top five of the standings this season. Not only does Penske not have any wins across 15 total starts this season, it doesn’t even have any runners-up. There’s also the fact that Newgarden is battling history as no one in the 108-year history of the Indianapolis 500 has ever three-peated, so the odds aren’t in has favor to do so on Sunday. See which other drivers to avoid at SportsLine.

How to make 2025 Indianapolis 500 picks

The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2025 Indy 500 odds longer than 10-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model’s Indy 500 projected leaderboard over at SportsLine.

So who wins the Indy 500 2025, and which long shots make a run at the checkered flag? Check out the latest 2025 Indianapolis 500 odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2025 Indianapolis 500 leaderboard, all from the model that correctly predicted 21 NASCAR winners since 2021 and 32 Formula One winners since 2021. 

2025 Indianapolis 500 odds (subject to change)

See full 2025 Indy 500 picks at SportsLine

Pato O’Ward 5-1
Alex Palou 11-2
Scott Dixon 13-2
Robert Shwartzman 8-1
Takuma Sato 9-1
Scott McLaughlin 9-1
Josef Newgarden 19-2
Felix Rosenqvist 12-1
Kyle Larson 18-1
David Malukas 18-1
Alexander Rossi 18-1
Christian Lundgaard 20-1
Marcus Ericsson 20-1
Kyle Kirkwood 25-1
Conor Daly 25-1
Colton Herta 25-1
Will Power 25-1
Santino Ferrucci 25-1
Helio Castroneves 30-1
Ed Carpenter 60-1
Graham Rahal 80-1
Sting Ray Robb 80-1
Ryan Hunter-Reay 80-1
Louis Foster 80-1
Kyffin Simpson 100-1
Jack Harvey 100-1
Devlin DeFrancesco 100-1
Christian Rasmussen 100-1
Callum Ilott 100-1
Rinus Veekay 100-1
Nolan Siegel 100-1
Marcus Armstrong 100-1
Marco Andretti 100-1

Indianapolis 500 starting grid