Cubs Make Low-Risk, High-Reward Trade For Ryan Pressly

Ryan Pressly is fifth all-time in postseason saves. He’s got a chance to move into the top three in 2025, and that probably wasn’t going to happen without him approving the trade sending him to the Cubs.

Pressly, a big part of Houston teams that went to the ALCS seven years in a row, had fallen into a set-up role after the Astros invested $95 million in Josh Hader. He should get the ninth inning at Wrigley Field, and the Cubs have a good shot to end their four-year postseason drought.

While the Cubs had intriguing internal options in Porter Hodge, Tyson Miller and Nate Pearson, the addition of Pressly makes sense, especially on the financial terms. He’ll cost only $8.5 million, with the Astros agreeing to send $5.5 million in the trade.

As a 10-and-5 player, Pressly had earned full no-trade rights. He reportedly could have signed off on a trade to Detroit, which would have reunited him with former Astros manager A.J. Hinch, but opted for the Cubs instead. You wonder if it was Hinch’s “pitching chaos” bullpen usage that steered him toward Wrigley Field.

The Cubs had pursued left-hander Tanner Scott, reportedly finishing as the runner-up to the Dodgers’ four-year, $72-million offer. They have no commitment to Pressly beyond the upcoming season, although they could sending 20-year-old, right-handed lottery ticket Juan Bello to Houston in the trade.

Pressly is entering his age-36 season, and converted 31 of 37 saves in 2023. But he does present something of a challenge for manager Craig Counsell, pitching coach Tommy Hottovy and the analysts in the pitching lab, as this master of high-spin pitches has fallen into a rut with the loss of velocity on his fastball.

While Pressly’s four-seamer clocked in at 96 mph in 20-18, he has been something of an outlier as a closer because he favored breaking pitches over his heater. Both his slider and curveball have been effective pitches, giving him the chance to attack hitters with a rare pitch sequence in the late innings, all thrown from an unusually high, over-the-top arm angle.

Pressly hasn’t thrown 50 percent fastballs since 2017, and two years held opponents to a .178 batting average while throwing breaking pitches two-thirds of the time. But his trademark slider and curveball have shown slippage the last two seasons, which contributed to his four-seamer being used as his primary pitch in 2024. He threw only 33 percent sliders, down from 40 in 2023. The whiff rate on it has fallen to 31 percent from 52 as recently as 2022, perhaps because he isn’t getting as much extension in his delivery as he once did.

Hitters adjusted quickly. They hit .313 off his four-seamer, the highest over a full season since he was getting established a decade earlier. The odd part about him leaning into it was the average velocity was down to 93.7, almost a full mile per hour from 2023. While he retained the same elite spin rate, the pitch seemed to lack ride to the top of the strike zone and run into the hands of right-handers, with too many four-seamers winding up waist-high, over the middle of the plate.

One plus for the Cubs is he remains a ground-ball pitcher, which should work well with 2023 Gold Glove winners Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner covering the middle of the infield. But there’s clearly risk that Pressly’s recent regression could continue.

The upside is huge if Hottovy and his pitching assistants can help Pressly, as they did mid-career relievers Miller and Pearson last season. He has pitched well in October, compiling a 2.78 ERA in 47 postseason appearances, with 14 saves in 15 chances. He had six postseason saves for Houston in 2022, including the clinching game of the World Series.

Only Mariano Rivera (42), Kenley Jansen (20), Brad Lidge (18) and Dennis Eckersley (15) have more postseason saves. The Cubs would love to give him a chance to climb that list in October.