F1 futures odds: Will McLaren favor Oscar Piastri or Lando Norris? Can Max Verstappen catch up?
In the final episode of the latest season of Netflix’s hit show “Formula 1: Drive to Survive,” McLaren’s Lando Norris gave the following quote after being asked if he could be a champion: “I believe I got what it takes, so I’m excited for next year.”
The question was indirectly asking if Norris could contend with four-time reigning champion Max Verstappen, who secured the 2024 driver’s title thanks to wins at the Brazilian Grand Prix and Qatar Grand Prix late in the campaign. However, Norris’ biggest competition in 2025 is actually from within his own McLaren team.
Oscar Piastri has made his ninth-place finish in the Australian Grand Prix feel like it happened a decade ago, winning five of the next eight races. That includes a victory at Sunday’s Spanish Grand Prix, which puts Piastri 10 points ahead of Norris in the driver’s championship standings. At FanDuel, Piastri is the -155 favorite to win the driver’s championship with Norris right behind him at +195. Verstappen, who is looking for his fifth championship in a row, is +850. George Russell (+900) and Charles Leclerc (+950) round out the top five contenders.
Piastri vs. Norris: Will McLaren choose a lead driver?
Driver dynamics in F1 are tricky. Piastri and Norris need each other for the overall success of McLaren, but they also know how cutthroat this sport is. They also recognize they are each other’s best comparison point, as they are being given the exact same resources for every race. That can be a significant mental hurdle, especially if the driver’s title comes down to the two McLarens. Thankfully, there’s not a contract situation hanging over everyone’s head. Piastri is under contract through the 2028 season and Norris is locked up through 2027.
McLaren needs both drivers to consistently score points to ensure a win in the constructor’s title. That doesn’t look like it’ll be an issue this season, with McLaren 197 points ahead of second-place Ferrari with the Canadian Grand Prix up next in two weeks. There’s still plenty of racing left, but short of both McLaren cars being disqualified in multiple races, it’s unlikely the team has to worry about being caught here.
That brings team rules into the conversation. Known at McLaren as “Papaya Rules” due to the car’s distinct orange color, team rules are instructions in place for both drivers to attempt to ensure a particular result. These usually come into greater focus if one driver is well ahead of the other and in contention for the title. That’s likely not going to be the case here. McLaren haven’t made any comment about prioritizing one driver over the other and so far, the team has allowed Piastri and Norris to race each other without interference. As long as the two don’t make contact with each other on the track and cost the team points in the constructor’s standings, it’s unlikely McLaren will choose to prioritize one driver over the other. That could potentially lead to a situation later in the year with Piastri and Norris strategizing individually during race week, even if they share the same management group and pit crew.
The Verstappen factor
The reigning champion’s hopes to get back into the driver’s championship took a big hit at the Spanish Grand Prix. Verstappen was hit with a 10-second penalty after he refused to concede a position to Russell, sending the Red Bull star from fifth place to 10th, a nine-point difference. Verstappen is now 39 points behind Norris and 49 behind Piastri, but there’s a bit of a silver lining in this. Red Bull have been vocal about their focus on winning yet another driver’s championship, which means the constructor’s title is somewhat irrelevant. The priority is Verstappen. That gives Red Bull more leeway with its second driver when it comes to racing strategy. At the moment, the second driver is Yuki Tsonuda, but Red Bull could call up one of Liam Lawson or Isack Hadjar from Racing Bulls if needed.
Red Bull’s second driver can create slip screens during qualifying to give Verstappen a chance at better times and pole position. The second driver can strategically be used for pit stops and racing maneuvers. Of course, this driver cannot intentionally crash into someone else or hang at the back of the pack to hold up everyone else, but there are ways to manipulate positions in Verstappen’s favor. The gap is substantial, but there are still 15 races to go.
Canadian Grand Prix odds, best bets
Norris and Piastri finished second and fifth, respectively, at the 2024 Canadian Grand Prix and should feel confident given McLaren’s superiority this season. However, this has historically not been a strong track for either driver. Piastri finished 11th at the 2023 race, while Norris ended up in 13th place. He was 15th in 2022. Norris famously had to retire his car at the 2019 Canadian Grand Prix due to a brake malfunction, his first race at the Montreal track. Meanwhile, Verstappen is the three-time defending champion at this event and will have a two-week break to reset his focus.
Piastri is a slight +130 favorite to win the Canadian Grand Prix at DraftKings while Norris is just behind him at +150. Verstappen is priced at +700. These lines will shift after qualifying, but the oddsmakers view this as a two-driver race at the moment. Thanks to his letdown at the Spanish Grand Prix, Verstappen probably has to win in Montreal to have a real shot at catching both McLaren drivers. This is a track he has dominated of late while both Piastri and Norris have had their issues here. It’s hard to enough to win a driver’s championship on its own, but it’s nearly impossible when you are in contention with two other drivers who are on the same team.
The Canadian Grand Prix could be the biggest turning point of the 2025 F1 season. It will either cement this year’s championship as a two-driver affair or give the defending champion the opening he needs to mount a comeback.
If Verstappen is able to take pole in qualifying at Montreal, he’s worth backing as a longshot to win this race. When it comes to the overall championship though, taking Piastri or Norris is the wiser move. Only 10 points separate the two drivers and Norris has more experience, so he’s offering more value at +195 than Piastri at -155 ahead of the Canadian Grand Prix.
