Fantasy Baseball Trade Deadline Tracker: Erick Fedde, Tommy Edman, Miguel Vargas headline three-team deal
The trade deadline is Tuesday at 6 p.m. ET, and already the moves are coming in fast.
One of the latest is a wild three-team trade sending Tommy Edman and Michael Kopech to the Dodgers, Erick Fedde and Tommy Pham to the Cardinals, and Miguel Vargas and a pair of minor-leaguers to the White Sox.
There’s more to say about it, but then again, there’s more to say about many of the trades that have already taken place. So here it is, a convenient repository for all of our quick-hitting analysis during this frenetic time. Catch up on what’s already happened and then bookmark this page for what’s still to come.
The Blue Jays also received a pretty interesting infielder, Will Wagner, in the deal. From the Blue Jays’ perspective, it’s a nice return for an impending free agent who hasn’t actually pitched all that well this year. From the Astros’ perspective, Minute Maid Park wouldn’t seem like the best destination for a left-hander with some propensity for the long ball. Granted, Kikuchi’s strikeout-to-walk ratio, which ranks 15th among qualifiers, would suggest he’s underachieved so far — as would his 3.98 xERA, 3.64 FIP and 3.39 xFIP — so you could speculate that he’ll benefit from a change of scenery. You might have hoped for better scenery, though.
From a Fantasy perspective, Loperfido may seem like the big get here, but most real-world prospect lists actually rank Bloss higher. He’s made three starts for the Astros this year, having recently returned from a bout with shoulder inflammation, but he had a 1.64 ERA, 0.78 WHIP and 8.6 K/9 in 13 minor-league starts. It’s more of a pitch-to-contact profile but one that generally works, and it’s likely he slots into the Blue Jays rotation right away. Loperfido, meanwhile, could fill the lineup vacancy created by the Justin Turner trade. The left-handed hitter has strikeout issues but has seen his exit velocities spike in the minors this year, indicating real power potential. I’d be more inclined to pick him up than Bloss in a deeper Rotisserie league, but we’ll need to see how the playing time shakes out.
Montas’ disastrous stint with the Reds ends with a move up to the division-leading Brewers, who have had some success setting pitchers on the right path. Montas gives them something to work with, namely a splitter that still generates whiffs at a high rate, but after a year (mostly) lost to shoulder surgery, the command simply hasn’t been there. He doesn’t have much value now, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see him turn things around. Perhaps a change of scenery could trigger it. Going the other way in the deal are Joey Wiemer and Jake Junis, who have been on the fringes of mattering in the past. That’s especially true for Wiemer, but with three homers in 235 minor-league plate appearances this year, the 25-year-old isn’t of much interest right now.
For as productive as the Guardians offense has been this year, they’ve once again found themselves short-handed in the outfield. This move, in which they give up Alex Clemmey and a couple other prospects, addresses that need neatly enough. Thomas has remained a must-start Fantasy player after his breakout season a year ago, though the shape of his production has changed a bit. Last year, he had 28 homers and 20 steals over 156 games, but if you pace this year’s stats over the same number of games, he ends up with 16 homers and 56 steals. His increased willingness to run is part of the reason you can still feel confident in him even as he heads to a venue that’s not so good for right-handed power. Statcast estimates that Thomas would have 11 fewer home runs over the past three years if he played every game at Progressive Field.
With every opening the Nationals create in their outfield (because, remember, they already traded away Jesse Winker), the chances of a Dylan Crews promotion increase. The second pick in last year’s draft has a modest .263/.336/.436 slash line between Double- and Triple-A but with strong plate discipline and exit velocity readings underneath it.
Turner’s one season with the Blue Jays was a disappointment, and it seems unlikely that a move to the Mariners, who play in the worst park for hitters statistically, will be what rights him. The Mariners are desperate for offense, though, and will presumably hand full-time DH duties to him, bumping the disappointing Mitch Garver to a part-time role. This move opens up more at-bats in Toronto, though it’s not clear that anyone is deserving of them. Alejandro Kirk has already ascended to full-time duty with the Danny Jansen trade, and Joey Votto has yet to resume a rehab assignment after tweaking his ankle. Perhaps Davis Schneider could see more playing time, which might be enough to renew his sleeper appeal.
Tommy Edman, Michael Kopech traded to Dodgers.
The Dodgers’ return in the three-team deal with the Cardinals and White Sox gives them some much-needed versatility. Playing Mookie Betts at shortstop was always a stretch, and there’s been talk during his absence for a fractured hand about shifting him back to second base once he returns. The acquisition of Edman allows for that, or it could instead bolster their outfield should Gavin Lux’s recent production continue. The simplest way to put it is that Edman’s versatility and all-around defense prowess is a huge asset for a team that’s had a difficult time filling holes across the diamond.
The Dodgers’ interest is also a pretty strong indication that reports on Edman’s wrist are good. The 29-year-old has yet to play in a big-league game this season because of a slow recovery from offseason surgery, but he’s been on a rehab assignment for much of July. He’s been a valued speedster in Fantasy for several years now, contributing mainly to the stolen base category but with modest contributions in batting average and home runs, and his standing only improves in the Dodgers lineup if he’s indeed back to full health. You should probably be stashing him in all but the shallowest of leagues.
As for Kopech, it’s hard to imagine the Dodgers would include him in their closer committee, at least to start out, so his limited Fantasy appeal is effectively zapped for now. He’s still brimming with potential, though, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Dodgers extract more of it, potentially moving him into a more prominent role. As for who replaces him as White Sox closer, I would guess it’s a combination of not-so-appealing options.
Erick Fedde, Tommy Pham traded to Cardinals
Erick Fedde has been a surprise performer this year, not only because he was totally off the Fantasy radar prior to his year spent in Korea but also because it’s difficult to pin down exactly what makes him successful. His control is merely decent, his ground-ball rate close to average and his swinging-strike rate among the worst in the league. Nevertheless, he’s been reliable enough for a contender to covet him, with the Cardinals acquiring him in a three-team deal with the Dodgers and White Sox. He’s actually won games at a decent clip with the White Sox, but the chances of it continuing of course improve with the Cardinals. I would still think it’s more likely he takes a step back than forward, though, judging by his 3.77 xERA, 3.76 FIP and 3.96 xFIP.
The Cardinals are already well acquainted with Tommy Pham, seeing as they’re the team that first brought him to the majors, and he presents an immediate upgrade in the outfield over a placeholder like Michael Siani. He’ll essentially fill the seat that was being kept warm for Tommy Edman (who now belongs to the Dodgers via this same deal), and the improved lineup should make him viable in five-outfielder leagues again.
Miguel Vargas traded to White Sox
Vargas never quite measured up to the Dodgers’ defensive standards at any of the positions he tried (namely third base, second base and outfield). Even with the myriad of holes that developed in their lineup this year, they couldn’t bring themselves to install him anywhere. The depleted White Sox won’t have that trouble, and while it’s not yet clear which of their many holes he’s in line to fill, you can be certain that Vargas will have every opportunity to contribute offensively.
That’s the part of his game that’s so intriguing for Fantasy. In 41 games at Triple-A this year, the 24-year-old slashed .290/.440/.566 with eight home runs, eight stolen bases and more walks (38) than strikeouts (33), and that’s basically how his minor-league career has always gone. Judging by the exit velocity readings, his power will more likely be in the 20-homer range than the 30-homer range, but with a good batting average to accompany it. This move makes him a priority pickup in deeper leagues, and he at least bears watching in the shallower ones.
The Rangers aren’t thought to be sellers, but they apparently like the upside of Walter Pennington, a left-handed reliever who they acquired in the deal. They also possibly wanted to clear a rotation spot for Tyler Mahle, who just went four innings in his latest rehab outing and is nearing a return from Tommy John surgery. The Royals will presumably install Lorenzen in place of Alec Marsh, but it’s unclear whether that’s actually an upgrade. Lorenzen has done a reasonably good job limiting damage (and pitching half his games at Kauffman Stadium should help with that) but he’s a low-strikeout, high-walk pitcher whose ERA estimators are all verging on 5.00. This trade keeps his Fantasy appeal firmly in the “streamer” category.
The Rays continued their sell-off with a move that brings back some major-league talent. In fact, it’s almost more of a challenge trade given that Paredes is under control through 2028 and Morel through 2029. Paredes gives the Cubs a more sure-handed defender at third base and a steadier performer at the plate — in theory, anyway. His power only plays down the left-field line, though, and while he’s an expert at delivering the ball there, the outline of Wrigley Field doesn’t work in his favor, measuring 355 feet deep at the foul pole. I would expect his production to slip with this move, with a chance of it outright ruining him. Statcast estimates that Paredes would have lost 13 homers the past three years if he had played every game at Wrigley Field.
Morel remains more of an upside play at this point, having cut his strikeout rate from 31.0 percent last year to 24.5 percent this year but for some reason failing to live up to his .242 xBA and .451 xSLG. You don’t have to squint too hard to see another Randy Arozarena, who the Rays recently traded away, and maybe Morel winds up back in the outfield given his deficiencies at third base. It’s possible the Rays just confine him to DH for the time being, but then again, this is the Rays we’re talking about. I’d worry about some disruption to Morel’s playing time just because that’s what they do.
So nothing but bad news? Well, the removal of a third base staple clears a path for Junior Caminero, arguably the top prospect in baseball. It’s not clear that the Rays are ready to make that move — they might prefer to wait until September to keep his rookie status intact for next year — but the 21-year-old is batting .321 (9 for 28) with two homers and two doubles in seven games back at Triple-A after contending with a strained quadriceps. In addition to Morel, the Rays also acquired an up-and-coming reliever named Hunter Bigge, who could go on to play a critical bullpen role if Pete Fairbanks follows Jason Adam out the door.
Lately, the Mets had been forced to play Jeff McNeil in the outfield because that’s where the need was with the injury to Starling Marte. This trade makes for a more elegant solution. Winker has been a surprisingly useful player this season, not only regaining some of his former hitting (and particularly on-base) prowess after two seasons wrecked by injury but also becoming the unlikeliest of base-stealers. The Nationals had recently taken to sitting him against left-handed pitchers — a decision supported by the splits — and you have to figure the Mets will do the same, perhaps even more reliably with them having so much more to play for. He probably loses some value in Fantasy if for no other reason than that, putting him on the fringes in three-outfielder leagues.
On the Nationals side, does this move open the door to a Dylan Crews call-up? Probably not immediately, but some on the Nationals beat have been floating that possibility for a while now. The second pick in last year’s draft has a modest .266/.339/.438 slash line between Double- and Triple-A but with strong plate discipline and exit velocity readings underneath it.
If you thought Estevez was a big closer simply because the Angels had no better options, think again. This move unfortunately means that Jeff Hoffman, who has arguably been the best reliever in baseball this year, has even more competition for saves. That’s not me saying it but Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski. “It wouldn’t surprise me if he gets a lot of ninth innings,” Dombrowski said.
In fairness, Estevez has been better this year than most Fantasy Baseballers probably realize. He’s become an elite strike-thrower, which is in stark contrast to the rest of his career. Still, it’s hard to see this trade as anything other than a net loss for Fantasy because of what it likely means for Hoffman. And it probably brings down Estevez’s stock, too, given that manager Rob Thomson has shied away from conventional bullpen roles all year.
The Angels’ side of this deal is just as interesting because one of the pitching prospects they’re getting back, George Klassen, has generated a fair amount of buzz in the lower minors, going from being a reliever who didn’t know where the ball was going in college to a starter with at least some command over his 100 mph heat. The Angels also have to settle on a new closer, and while Ben Joyce would be the most interesting choice with a fastball that peaks at 104, I could see manager Ron Washington leaning toward veteran Luis Garcia, at least until he’s traded.
Some trades that send shock waves through the real baseball world are basically of no consequence to Fantasy Baseball, but this one has a chance to matter in both because it represents a night-and-day shift in Chisholm’s circumstances. OK, so his playing time is unaffected, but he goes from one of the worst lineups in baseball to one of the best and one of the worst parks for home runs to one that’s particularly suited for his left-handed stroke. In fact, Statcast estimates that if he had played every game at Yankee Stadium this year, he’d have 19 home runs instead of his actual 13.
Of course, his combined home run and stolen base output is impressive as it is and might lead you to believe he ranks higher than he does, but that’s where the supporting cast comes in. For as healthy as Chisholm has been this year (a welcome change from years past), he’s on pace for just 72 runs and 78 RBI. Those paces might be 20 higher if he was batting among the Yankees top three all year. The downside for Fantasy is that Chisholm’s arrival might forestall Jasson Dominguez’s return to the majors, but then again, should Gleyber Torres continue to struggle, it’s possible Chisholm could take his place at second base rather than staying in the outfield. His versatility was among the qualities touted by the Yankees brass.
As successful as Eflin’s first season with the Rays was, it’s hard to view this year as anything more than a failure. And because of that, the Rays decided to cut bait on their biggest free-agent signing in history, dealing him for their usual bounty of interesting-but-not-high-end prospects (with the versatile Mac Horvath probably being the most notable). It’s a positive development for Eflin, who’ll now be backed by a top-five offense rather than a bottom-five offense, but whether the Orioles can help him recapture his 2023 form is the bigger question.
On the one hand, he’s still an elite strike-thrower, and his 3.37 xERA isn’t so different from last year’s 3.02 mark. On the other hand, the Rays are one of the organizations most known for maximizing player outcomes, and they just sold low on him. If nothing else, this move should make you think twice about discarding Eflin in shallower leagues, and if you see him throw his curveball more in an Orioles uniform, you have even more hope for his stock to rise.
Before Garcia even had a chance to reclaim the closer role following his month-long absence for elbow neuritis, the Blue Jays dealt him to the Mariners, who of course already have a closer — or at least as close as they can come to having one with Scott Servais as their manager. On that note, Garcia likely takes over the uniquely Mariners role of occasional saves vulture, recently vacated by the since-traded Ryne Stanek, but for the most part, this trade ruins Garcia’s Fantasy value. It does bring some clarity to the Blue Jays bullpen, with Chad Green no longer facing competition for saves, but it sounds like he could be on the move as well. Stay tuned.
The Orioles finally dealt from their outfield excess, trading one of their less-interesting options for right-handed reliever Seranthony Dominguez. The move does have a chance to resuscitate Hays’ value for a couple reasons. The biggest is that he’s expected to play every day for the Phillies, shifting Brandon Marsh to center field and bumping the offensively-challenged Johan Rojas from the lineup altogether, but there’s also the not-so-small matter of Camden Yards crushing Hays’ power the past three years.
In his 65 games there in 2021, the year before they reconfigured it with the deepest left-field fence in baseball, Hays hit .270 with 13 home runs and an .852 OPS. His home OPS in the three years since isn’t even within 100 points. It’s hard to make much of the data this year with as little as he’s played, but if he had played every game last year at the Phillies’ home venue of Citizens Bank Park, he would have hit 23 homers as opposed to the 16 he actually hit, according to Statcast. That pace, presuming it holds, would likely make him just a fourth or fifth outfielder in Fantasy, but that’s still a big improvement.
This move has the added effect of freeing up more at-bats for up-and-comers Colton Cowser and Heston Kjerstad. The presence of Anthony Santander, Cedric Mullins and Ryan O’Hearn still leave the duo fighting for at-bats, but now if one catches fire, he’s more likely to seize a job for himself. It may already be happening for Cowser.
The first high-profile move of trade deadline season sent one of the hottest hitters of the past two months to one of the coldest lineups. Between that and T-Mobile Park having the worst overall park factor for hitters, this trade may seem like nothing but bad news for Arozarena. And it’s not good news — don’t get me wrong — but the most likely outcome is that his stock remains the same. Tropicana Field is also one of the worst places to hit, and the Rays lineup has also been among the worst in baseball.
The real change for Arozarena is that after hitting .158 through May 31 and seeming to be in premature decline at age 29, he’s hit .283 (43 for 152) with seven homers, nine steals and an OPS near .900 in 44 games since. That’s more like the Arozarena we’ve always known and likely why the Mariners saw fit to acquire him. And as for T-Mobile Park, he’s hit .289 (13 for 45) with three home runs and just three strikeouts in 11 career games there.
Puk’s name had been bandied around as a possible stash in deeper leagues should the Marlins trade closer Tanner Scott, but it turns out Puk was the first of the two lefties out the door. He gives the Diamondbacks a nice late-inning bullpen weapon, having recovered from his disastrous stint in the starting rotation to throw 16 consecutive scoreless while striking out 23 and allowing just seven total baserunners, but it’s unlikely he’ll overtake Paul Sewald for the ninth-inning role.
Mostly, this trade is worth mentioning for one of the prospects the Marlins acquired in return, first baseman Deyvison De Los Santos, who has been one of the minor leagues’ top performers with a .325 batting average, 28 homers and 1.011 OPS between Double- and Triple-A this year. The power is legitimate, but the numbers conceal a concerningly high chase rate and are inflated by favorable hitting environments. Still, De Los Santos will have a better chance of breaking through for the Marlins than he did for the Diamondbacks.
