Fitch Cuts China’s Outlook as Real Estate Downturn Hurts Public Finances

Fitch Ratings downgraded its outlook for China to “negative” from “stable,” citing increasing risks to the country’s public finances as it moves away from an economy reliant on property.

The economy has been suffering from a prolonged real estate slump and a rising fiscal deficit, the ratings agency said.

“Wide fiscal deficits and rising government debt in recent years have eroded fiscal buffers from a ratings perspective,” Fitch said.

The downgraded view follows a similar move by ratings agency Moody’s Investors Service in December, which also cut its outlook on China’s sovereign credit rating to “negative” from “stable.”

China’s Finance Ministry reportedly said it was “disappointed” by Fitch’s decision, arguing that it didn’t reflect the fiscal benefits of Beijing’s attempts to spur economic growth.

Earlier this year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said it expects China’s GDP growth to slow to 4.6% in 2024 from around 5% last year, with weak exports and real estate problems dragging down activity. China’s GDP growth could fall to about 3.5% in 2028, according to the IMF.

Some American companies are beginning to feel the impact of China’s decelerating economy, with Apple (AAPL) and Starbucks (SBUX) posting drops in revenue in the final quarter of 2023, in part because of lagging sales in China.