Florida State’s College Football Playoff outlook looks bleak after upset loss to Georgia Tech in season opener
The first game of the 2024 college football season provided what will stand as one of the most surprising results all year, as double-digit favorite No. 10 Florida State fell 24-21 to Georgia Tech in Dublin, Ireland. While this latest setback for the Seminoles doesn’t throw their season completely off the rails, it does re-contextualize expectations for a team that many saw making an impact on the national stage.
Florida State was picked to finish first in the ACC preseason media poll, garnering 81 of 170 votes for the top spot. By contrast, the Yellow Jackets came in at No. 9 — though one seemingly prescient voter did give them a nod for first place.
The Seminoles were a trendy projection to the College Football Playoff, an outlook backed by their preseason ranking as a consensus top-10 team. Georgia Tech didn’t receive any ballot consideration in either the Coaches Poll or AP Top 25.
This was supposed to be a moment Florida State flipped the page from last year’s disappointment and, in a television slot unburdened by any competing games, took its first step on a journey towards the 12-team playoff. Now there’s no margin for error.
That doesn’t necessarily bode well when taking a peak at what awaits on Florida State’s schedule. Week 1 doesn’t bring the sweet reprieve of a cupcake, tune-up game — they have to play ACC foe Boston College in a primetime slot on Labor Day.
Twelve days later, on Sept. 14, Florida State welcomes Memphis to Tallahassee. This being a Memphis team that’s fresh off a 10-win season, in which it nearly upset Missouri, with College Football Playoff hopes of its own.
Then the true conference slate begins in earnest. In fact, Florida State doesn’t play a non-FBS team until Nov. 23 against Charleston Southern. That’s sandwiched between a trip to No. 7 Notre Dame and the season finale against Florida.
In a month-long stretch from Sept. 28 to Oct. 26, Florida State has to play at SMU, vs. Clemson and at Miami. That’s one game against the reigning American Athletic Conference champion and a pair of games against the teams that placed No. 2 and No. 3 in the ACC preseason media poll, respectively.
To summarize, Florida State still has to play three preseason AP Top 25 teams, a 2023 conference champion and its in-state SEC rival. Here’s a full breakdown of Florida State’s remaining schedule:
- Sept. 2: Boston College
- Sept. 14: Memphis
- Sept. 21: California
- Sept. 28: at SMU
- Oct. 5: Clemson
- Oct. 18: at Duke
- Oct. 26: at Miami
- Nov. 2: North Carolina
- Nov. 9: at Notre Dame
- Nov. 23: Charleston Southern
- Nov. 30: Florida
Win out and the Seminoles are headed to the ACC Championship Game and, likely, the playoff.
But that’s the problem. Florida State can’t afford another slip-up on a slate that seems to be filled with pitfalls. And if Saturday is any indication, this doesn’t look like a team that’s built to win 11-straight games.
Entering the year, Florida State could look at the lines of scrimmage as sources of strength. The loss to Georgia Tech completely wiped that veneer away. The Seminoles defensive tackle tandem of Joshua Farmer and Darrell Jackson Jr. were moved off the ball a little too easily as Georgia Tech rushed for 190 yards on 5.3 yards per carry.
Edge rushers Patrick Payton and Marvin Jones Jr. felt completely absent as Florida State went without a sack. The offensive line, which returned three starters — including a pair of first team preseason All-ACC selections in tackle Darius Washington and Maurice Smith — and supplemented any losses with power conference transfers, looked wildly inconsistent after FSU’s dominant (and likely scripted) opening drive.
Georgia Tech recorded seven tackles for loss. Florida State managed less than 100 net yards rushing, 58 of which came on that opening drive.
This is with the healthiest lineup that Florida State is going to have all year. As the seasons wears on, players are bound to pick up myriad injuries and ailments with varying significance.
If the Seminoles’ starters struggled that much, it’s hard to believe that they have the depth to carry an 11-1 record. Even 10-2, which would land Florida State within earshot of the College Football Playoff, seems like a hard result to predict at this point.
Of course, it’s never wise to make blanket statements after one game — especially a Week 0 game. Plenty of teams have taken a disastrous start and turned it into a strong late-season run to college football’s postseason. Florida State knows better than most that the timing of a peak is much more important than the peak itself.
It’s going to be a steep climb to get anywhere near the top, though.
