What should Patriots fans be watching in Week 16 as it relates to the team’s draft order position and scenarios?
Let’s break it down.
Patriots have good chance to move up to No. 2
The easiest way for the Patriots to move up from No. 3 to No. 2 in the first round draft order is by losing to the Buffalo Bills on the road Sunday and having the Las Vegas Raiders beat the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday.
The Patriots are heavy underdogs to the Bills, and given how amazing Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen has been playing, it would be pretty shocking if New England pulled off the upset. The Raiders aren’t very good, but they have a favorable matchup versus Mac Jones and the Jaguars. ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) model gives the Raiders a 55.9 percent chance of beating the Jaguars.
The Patriots could also move up to No. 2 if the Raiders lost but the Giants won their game against the Falcons. Even though the Falcons are giving rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. his first career start, ESPN’s FPI still gives Atlanta a 63.4 percent chance of defeating New York.
It’s possible for the Patriots to move up to the No. 1 pick, but that would require them losing to the Bills, combined with the Raiders and Giants both winning.
Giants at Falcons: Sunday at 1 p.m. ET on FOX
Patriots at Bills: Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS
Jaguars at Raiders: Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS
Why a top-two pick is important
There could be a pretty big difference in the value between the No. 2 and No. 3 picks this year, and that’s because the 2025 class only has two quarterback prospects — Miami’s Cam Ward and Colorado’s Shadeur Sanders — worth taking with a top-five pick. That could change in the coming months, but right now, it’s a pretty weak QB class.
The Patriots don’t need a quarterback because it appears they’ve already hit a home run with the Maye pick. But in terms of trade value, it’s much better to have one of those two picks and be able to offer another team a chance at a franchise QB. The No. 3 pick will still have value, especially if teams covet Colorado WR/CB and reigning Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter, but it won’t have the same value as the top two picks because of the quarterbacks.
Teams are more likely to trade up for a potential star quarterback than a highly rated wide receiver or cornerback. Case in point: In the last 10 drafts, zero wide receivers and only two cornerbacks were taken with a top-three selection.
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This is why it would be great for the Patriots if the Raiders and/or Giants won at least one more game. If all three of these teams lose out, the highest the Patriots can draft is No. 3. One more win by the Giants or Raiders is required for the Patriots to move up.
What are the chances of the Patriots moving up to No. 2 or higher? Pretty good, according to ESPN’s FPI, which projects the Patriots will wind up earning the No. 2 pick, along with a 23.6 percent chance of moving all the way to the No. 1 spot.
Updated No. 1 pick forecast!
Raiders fans have been asking why their chances are so low.
The big reason why is FPI thinks it is much more likely the Giants lose out (36%) than the Raiders (11%). This is because it sees the Giants as substantially worse than Las Vegas and also… pic.twitter.com/QynBDFYLwM
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) December 17, 2024
The last time the Patriots had a top-three pick in back-to-back drafts was in 1993 (Drew Bledsoe, No. 1) and 1994 (Willie McGinest, No. 4).
Summary
The best-case scenario for the Patriots on Sunday is a close loss to the Bills.
It’s important for Maye to play well and for the team as a whole to show improvement in key areas. New England has to force more turnovers, cut down on the penalties, protect Maye better, generate a more consistent pass rush, etc.
But the scoreboard is what really matters. One more win over the final three games has the potential to move the Patriots down a couple spots in the draft order, and that could have a really negative impact on the team’s offseason.
If you’re a Patriots fan who wants to see the team’s draft pick position improve this weekend, here’s what you’re rooting for:
