How Recent Events Will Affect The Future Of Turkey And The Region

As domestic stability gets wobbly in Turkey the destabilizing effect will radiate out to the neighboring countries, to the region and beyond. Such is the international role President Erdogan has forged for the country over the years. The recent arrest of his prominent challenger – Ekrem Imamoglu, the popular mayor of Istanbul – has stirred deep unrest, demonstrations, mass arrests, and the like with estimates as high as two million protestors on the streets of the city. This is no small matter as Erdogan is faced with having to change the Constitution if he is to run for President a third time and that will require a national ballot and minimal opposition.

But this column is about the transnational implications of possible internal chaos in Türkiye – amid a very complicated balance of power in the region. Syria, for example. The current administration in Damascus depends hugely on backing from the Turks, as leading external sponsors, while it negotiates a path to acceptance and stability. Any weakness there and it won’t be long before Iran (or Russia) starts leveraging a way back into the influence lost with Assad’s abdication. Meanwhile, Israel is not happy with Ankara for seemingly taking Iran’s role of harboring top Hamas officials and inciting anti-Israeli feeling. Erdogan recently fired up his rhetoric in this regard, by publicly calling for destruction of the ‘Zionist Israeli state’.

While the rivalry between Iran and Turkey plays out in the region, there are accusations that the two countries collude in other ways such as permitting Iranian overflights that supply Hezbollah. Here is a penetrating article from January titled “Turkey replacing Syria as air corridor to Hezbollah’. There are potential domestic populist benefits for Erdogan in publicly provocative gestures against Israel as a way of inciting demonstrations in his own favor at a time when sentiment on the street is largely against him. Meanwhile, it’s not at all clear that the two countries are at daggers drawn geostrategically. They are, after all, solid allies in Azerbaijan, albeit for different reasons.

Israel has close ties to Azerbaijan, providing the Azeris with weapons and training. A strong and prosperous Azerbaijan threatens Iran from behind, not least by encouraging Azeris in Iran to secede and join their own country. The Turks are in the same game but with a different long-term goal. They want Azerbaijan to act as a land-bridge to Central Asia thereby creating a Turkic continuum for the first time since Moscow conquered that area centuries ago. To that end, Türkiye has signed security agreements with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan for military co-operation thereby displacing Russia’s role.

Until recently, that continuum was blocked geographically by the combined policy of Iran, Armenia and Russia. But the Armenians lost the 2022 Nagorno-Karabakh region to Azerbaijan in 2022 and blamed the Russians for not helping. The Iranians equally blame Moscow for abandoning Syria. That triple-alliance is fading and with it the blockage of Central Asia. So the pan-Turkic dream draws ever closer. Should the ‘Stans get access to world markets in this way, the balance of power in their region would shift away from Moscow’s influence, even Beijing’s, substantially.

All this has been happening under Erdogan. His tight hold on domestic affairs has allowed him to project power and funds unhindered gradually over the former Ottoman space abroad. The Turks, for example, also have a stake in both the Libyan and Somali civil wars through proxies. But with the internal pressure building against Erdogan’s leadership, the picture could change dramatically with implications for the regional realignments effected by him. As if all that weren’t complicated enough, there’s another incalculable factor impending: the intensive American military build-up in recent days. Many observers believe that the American sea and air power now collecting in the Mideast is aimed not just at the Houthis but at Iran and its military assets, most particularly at the nuclear projects within the country. Possibly in open co-ordination with Israel.

The full implications of such a development are for another column. It would almost certainly consolidate rather than shake the Tehran regime’s hold on power, at least for now, by giving it an added nationalistic excuse for cracking down on dissent. But what about the effect on Türkiye? There, too, the ruling regime will surely incite anti-American and anti-Israeli sentiments to consolidate power by spurring massive street demonstrations in its own favor. With the anti-Erdogan and pro-Erdogan protesters fully mobilized, the country is in for a very shaky time. The most likely outcome? It will cow the opposition’s support long enough for Erdogan to change the Constitution to allow him another run at the Presidency.