If the pollsters have it right, the Conservatives need a miracle in five weeks | General election 2024

“Nothing has changed”: those were the ill-fated words during Theresa May’s 2017 campaign. Things certainly did change, though – a large polling lead almost evaporated by polling day and a hung parliament was returned.

In 2024, Rishi Sunak desperately needs a similar shift. But so far the British public seem unmoved. Voting intention, as measured by the opinion polls, remains much as it was when the election was called. Those intentions would see Sunak falling to something ranging between a significant and a historic defeat.

This is set to be the most polled election ever. Most of the polling companies have now released both their initial poll and their first look at how it is all going. Only one company has so far shown any change of note (or as statisticians call it, outside the margin of error – any change that might be explained purely by variation in the sample). A poll on Tuesday night by JL Partners showed a slight narrowing of the Labour lead – to its smallest since February – of 12 percentage points, and well beyond that estimated to be needed for a Labour majority. Others showed leads ranging from 27 percentage points to 14.

Few people expect the Conservatives still to be in government in five weeks’ time. Data from Ipsos UK showed that just 8% of the public expected a Conservative majority government, while 7% thought the Conservatives might be the largest party in a hung parliament. In contrast, more than 4 in 10 thought Labour would have a majority, rising to almost 7 in 10 who thought Labour would either have a majority or be the largest party.

This may prove a setback for Labour later in the campaign. If it looks as if Labour is set to win comfortably, people may feel less pressure to vote tactically, and turnout may fall.

Perhaps more encouraging for the party in the long run is that expectations of a Labour government don’t seem to be especially high – perhaps offering some breathing space for a new government to make the changes the public want to see.

Polling has looked at what people expect to get better or worse under a Labour government. It might be best summarised as “things can only get better, but perhaps not much”. The area where expectations are highest is the NHS.

YouGov found that more than four in 10 people thought the health service would get better if Labour won. But while 35% thought the cost of living would improve, a significant proportion thought it would make no difference. The key message from this polling is that few voters think Labour would make things worse.

A notable exception is on immigration, where voters do tend to think there would be more small boat crossings and higher immigration under a Labour government. But for most voters, and critically, those switching from the Conservatives to Labour, immigration is not a key priority.

There may be some crumbs of comfort for the Conservatives on their recent policy announcements. YouGov found the public split slightly in favour of national service, with 47% in favour and 45% opposed. Though, as elsewhere in British politics, there was a significant age divide; support among 18-24-year-olds was at just 27%, compared with 63% among the over-65s.

The Conservatives seem able to find policy options that resonate with the public – or at least the parts of it they want to win over. But caution is needed here too. In 2019, the Labour party’s policies often polled well, but they weren’t seen as capable of delivering them. In 2024, it seems possible that the desire to remove the Conservative government is too strong to be negated by any one policy. The government may come up with popular ideas, but the public simply don’t want them to be in power any more.

The polls suggest a Labour government, the public expect a Labour government – and they expect life to be at least a little less bad under one.