In The Chaos Of the Kursk Invasion, Fast-Moving Ukrainians Captured Seven Russian Tanks—And Gave Up 10 Infantry Vehicles

More than three weeks into Ukraine’s surprise invasion of Russia’s Kursk Oblast, the Ukrainian advance is slowing as Ukrainian battalions reach the end of their supply lines and dig in—and more Russian reinforcements arrive along the increasingly entrenched front line.

There’s a good chance that, in the coming weeks, the line of contact around Ukraine’s Kursk salient will begin to look like the front line along the edge of most of Russian-occupied Ukraine: fortified and static and deadly to any force that dares to leave its positions.

The Pokrovsk sector in eastern Ukraine is the exception to the overall calcification of the front, of course. There, the Russians continue to advance against disorganized Ukrainian defenders at a rate that has caused a lot of hand-wringing and finger-pointing in Kyiv and allied capitals.

The hardening of the Kursk front line belies how fluid it was just two weeks ago, in the early days of the surprise Ukrainian assault. To understand the chaos, look at the list of captured armored vehicles on both sides. As Ukrainian units raced into Kursk, and surprised Russian units counterattacked when and where they could, both sides abandoned vehicles—and both sides captured some of these vehicles from the enemy.

Between the initial Ukrainian breach of Russian defenses along the border on Aug. 6 and Aug. 27, the Russians captured 10 Ukrainian vehicles just in Kursk. The Ukrainians captured 11 Russian vehicles plus a howitzer and a drone. The analysts at Oryx carefully track these losses.

This represents a huge spike in captures. By comparison, in the same three-week period in July, the Ukrainians captured eight Russian vehicles all along the 700-mile front line of Russia’s 30-month wider war on Ukraine; the Russians captured 10 Ukrainian vehicles all along the front.

What each side gave up to the other is telling. The Ukrainians aimed to move fast. So infantry battalions found themselves deep inside Russian lines in their armored personnel carriers without all the support they usually enjoy from drones and artillery.

It’s not for no reason that all the Ukrainian vehicles the Russians have captured are APCs or armored assault trucks: two BMPs, two BTR-4s, two Strykers and four trucks. The Ukrainians have captured a heavier mix of Russian vehicles from surprised Russian units, including seven T-72, T-80 and T-90 tanks and four unarmored supply trucks.

Of the eight or so Ukrainian brigades that have contributed significant forces to the invasion, the 82nd Air Assault Brigade and 92nd Assault Brigade seem to have lost the most vehicles. That’s unsurprising considering how aggressive these brigades are on the battlefield.

Of the defending Russian units, the 4th Tank Division seems to have given up the most vehicles—including three T-80s that are almost certain to wind up in Ukrainian service.

Unsurprisingly, the wholesale vehicle exchange in Kursk is slowing as the fighting slows, too. After quickly seizing as much as 420 square miles of Kursk in the first couple of weeks, the Ukrainians gained just 40 additional miles in the most recent week of their attack.

We still don’t know for sure what the Ukrainians aim to achieve in Kursk—and whether their gains in the Russian oblast are worth the territory they’re losing around Pokrovsk as they continue prioritizing attack over defense.

The strategic implications of the invasion aren’t yet clear. But in material terms, the fighting in Kursk is pretty much a wash. Both sides have captured around the same amount of enemy weaponry. Other losses are roughly similar, as well: as of Aug. 27, the Ukrainians had written off 87 pieces of heavy equipment; the Russians had written off 59.

Sources:

1. Deep State: https://deepstatemap.live/#10/51.3747808/35.0518799

2. Naalsio: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IkJH3PEIYFA0zX6JiJg8b5rKQZIZ91Hrli1267OlQWY/edit?gid=1575765921#gid=1575765921

3. Oryx: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-ukrainian.html; https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html