Sales Worries Drive Small Business Optimism to Lowest Levels Since 2012

With inflation pressures continuing to mount, small business owners’ sentiment about the economy in March was at its lowest levels in more than a decade, the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) monthly survey showed Tuesday. 

The NFIB’s Optimism Index fell almost a full point to 88.5 in March, its lowest level since December 2012 and the 27th straight month the index came in below its 50-year average.

“The small business sector is showing signs of a potential slowdown in economic activity with net sales expectations falling eight points, the main contributor to the decline in last month’s Index,” said the NFIB report from Chief Economists William C. Dunkelberg and Holly Wade, executive director of the group’s research center.

Inflation Remains Top Concern for Small Businesses

Small businesses still see inflation as their top challenge, with 25% pointing to it being the most important problem. Similarly, the number of owners raising their average selling prices jumped seven percentage points to 28%. 

With higher prices continuing to frustrate small businesses, the NFIB said it was unlikely the Federal Reserve would move to cut inflation-fighting interest rates from their 23-year high at its next two meetings. Only 4% of respondents to the survey said financing and interest rates were the biggest problems in their small business. 

“Small business optimism will likely remain suppressed going forward as firms continue to face difficulties stemming from rising prices, a strong labor market and uncertain demand outlook,” Wells Fargo economists Sam Bullard and Patrick Barley wrote in a commentary.