Will Macron Have A Crisis For Christmas?

The French budget deliberations have been dragging on for some time, with intense debate around the various elements that the government has proposed. Prime minister Michel Barnier’s latest communication is that a vote will be held between 18-20 December, and that he does not rule out the use of article 49.3 in order to pass the budget. Our sense is that this approach is an attempt to ‘bury’ the budget as a political issue in a quiet period.

Between now and then the crucial task for prime minister Barnier is to appease the Rassemblement (old ‘Front National’) on elements of the budget that pertain to the cost of living. there is growing rancour on the Rassemblement side and they have made threats to collapse the government.

The other issue to watch is the beginning of the Marine le Pen corruption trial. Whilst many in the media believe that the trial is politically motivated – arguably like the case that brought down former prime minister Francois Fillon, the performance of the Rassemblement staffers during the trial (for mis-use of EU funds) has not been credible, and to a layman’s eye, it looks like there may be grounds for the verdict to go against her. The hearings last till the end of November and a verdict is due early in the new year.

If the verdict goes against Le Pen she can face jail, a fine and importantly exclusion from political life. It would be a huge event in French and European public life – and would likely see the remaking of the right/far-right in France (our view is that right leaning members of the Republicans would try to take ground from the Rassemblement), and potentially far-right protests across France. If she ‘escapes’, she will be both emboldened and energised – though our sense is that the verdict could go against her.

As such it is a critical time for Emmanuel Macron. With France now actively engaged with Ukraine (2000 Ukrainian commandos are training in France and it has granted heavy weaponry to Ukraine), France is a key player in the crisis – President Macron has reiterated support for Ukraine and declared that he will not enter into a bi-lateral dialogue with the Russian president. A foreign affairs crisis, and the return of Donald Trump will test Macron at a time when he has not been ‘performing’.