Given they have won six of the past seven Premier League titles and have a seemingly never-ending pipeline of talent, Manchester City sitting atop odds boards and garnering significant action to win the league once again should come as little surprise. But what might be surprising is that the Sky Blues are also one of the action leaders in the relegation market.
Manchester City lead the “League Winner” field with +120 odds, followed closely by Arsenal at +180 and less closely by Liverpool at +700.
The odds see a significant dropoff from there, with Chelsea and Manchester United tied at +2200, per ESPN BET.
Much of the public is counting on City winning their fifth consecutive title this season, as they have grabbed 26% of the tickets at ESPN BET, 18.2% at BetMGM and 50% at DraftKings, the latter two of which lead the field.
However, it’s Arsenal that are getting most of the handle, taking a leading 54% at ESPN, 37% at DraftKings and 31% at FanDuel, with Liverpool also making noise at ESPN BET with 18% of the money.
By contrast, Man City have just 8% of the handle at ESPN BET.
The club is projected to be as dominant as it has been over the past several seasons, but its odds to win it all have dropped from -120 at open in mid-May to their current position.
The line moves and the betting action against City are the result of pending financial regulation charges against them, with a verdict, including appeal, expected to be reached by the end of the season.
Should the Premier League find Manchester City guilty of some or all of the violations, the club could be facing a massive season points reduction or even expulsion from the league. What that means for futures bettors will come down to sportsbooks’ house rules.
At ESPN BET and most major books, if a team is relegated as the result of a points reduction that puts them in the relegation zone at season’s end, relevant wagers in the relegation market will be graded as winners.
However, if a team is expelled from the league by its governing body before the end of the season, regardless of points, those wagers will be deemed void and refunded.
As a result, many bettors are flocking to Manchester City’s “To Be Relegated” market, anticipating the points reduction route: At +1500 odds, the club has a leading 27% of bets and 45% of handle at ESPN BET.
Same goes at BetMGM, which has 24.2% of its relegation tickets on Man City to be its biggest liability for that market; the book accordingly moved the team’s relegation odds from +1600 at open to +1000.
The money on the line isn’t insignificant for the sportsbooks, either, as the Premier League has proven to be a robust betting market in the United States.
“When it comes to domestic soccer, the Premier League is far and away the most popular league, with storied clubs and the biggest stars in the sport. We expect the new season to build on strong momentum from the Champions League, Copa América and Euros, where top matches were attracting more handle than most MLB games on a given day,” ESPN BET head of sportsbook Patrick Jay told ESPN.
“The time difference between Europe and the U.S. also creates favorable viewing windows and opportunities to engage our customers without competing head-to-head with American sports.”
The Premier League season kicks off Friday with Manchester United (-200) against Fulham (+450). Manchester City (-125) begins their title defense Sunday against Chelsea (+280).
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