Morel, Amaya Among Keys To Counsell’s First Camp With Cubs

Craig Counsell wasn’t hired to work miracles with the Cubs. They are paying him record money to continue the improvement that had already begun to happen the last couple of years under David Ross, with one clear mandate — to sustain consistent success into October.

Ross and the front office led by Jed Hoyer and Carter Hawkins had the Cubs pointed in the right direction before ending last season with a whimper, not a bang. Ross would very likely still be on the job if not for a 12-19 stumble to the finish line last season, which played a big role in the decision to swipe Counsell from the rival Milwaukee Brewers.

The 53-year-old Counsell must have played hard to get, as it took a precedent-setting contract of five years, $40 million to get him on board. His calling card, in large part, is having figured out how to keep a team fresh for the finish.

Milwaukee went to the postseason in five of the last six seasons and compiled a .580 winning percentage after July 31 in six of its last seven seasons (excluding the pandemic-shortened 2020 season). Priority No. 1 for Counsell as spring training begins is building the depth, discipline and mental toughness that will position the Cubs to get better as they head into what should be a tight National League Central race.

Counsell knows how to get the most bang for his buck. His Milwaukee team never ended a season ranked higher than 17th in the majors in payroll, with some of his best work done in 2018.

That team won 96 games and came within one win of the World Series, losing Game 7 of the NLCS to a Dodgers team that pitched Walker Buehler Julio Urias, Kenley Jansen and Clayton Kershaw. The Brewers ranked 26th in payroll entering the season but won with incredible teamwork as much as individual skills. It wasted few of the runs provided by hitters, with an incredible 20 players (including five pitchers) delivering at least +2 Defensive Runs Saved, per Fangraphs.

With Gold Glovers Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner in the middle of the infield, the Cubs have a chance to be that kind of team. The challenge for Counsell and his coaching staff — especially holdover pitching coach Tommy Hottovy and new bench coach Ryan Flaherty — is to approach the level of stinginess that was so often behind success in Milwaukee.

It’s not clear if he’s been given the roster to do that in his first year at Wrigley Field. But he’s getting a fighting chance, which is all he’s ever wanted. Here’s what to watch for in Arizona:

Finding the best fit for his best young hitter: Christopher Morel is 24 and coming off a 26-homer season when he was rarely an everyday player. He was signed as a shortstop but has mostly been a utility man since 2019, when he was a regular third baseman at low-A South Bend. The metrics love his bat (50 percent hard-hit rate with 91.2 mph average exit velocity), his base running (94th percentile base-running value, per Statcast) and his arm strength (97th percentile) but not his glove.

Morel strikes out a lot too. The job for Counsell is how to make him more than just the next Mark Reynolds. He seems too young to relegate to the DH role and the Cubs have openings at the infield corners and, until Pete Crow-Armstrong takes over, possibly center field. How will Counsell use him?

There’s money burning a hole in fan’s pocket: Hoyer seemingly has money to spend thanks to Marcus Stroman, who turned down a $25-million option for 2024, and Cody Bellinger, who rejected a $20.325 million Qualifying Offer to return for a second season.

The biggest signings, to date, have been Japanese lefty Shoto Imanaga and set-up man Hector Neris. Bellinger remains available, as you’ve probably heard, but it’s not clear whether he’d return value with Crow-Armstrong as the long-term center fielder, relegating Bellinger to first base/DH. Third baseman Matt Chapman remains unsigned after a 4.4 WAR season in Toronto — but would block rising prospect Matt Shaw — and there’s no shortage of interesting pitchers lingering on the market. Will Hoyer invest or maintain maximum flexibility for mid-season trades?

Giving the top prospect a mulligan: Crow-Armstrong barely made any footprints in the Wrigley Field dirt last year but his 0-for-14 showing at the plate came in September, clouding his outlook more than it would have in May or June. His .892 career OPS in the minors would seem a better barometer.

Given Crow-Armstrong’s reputation as one of the best fielders around, he can’t be far away from replacing veteran Michael Tauchman in center field. He’ll be a focus for hitting coaches Dustin Kelly, Jim Adduci, Juan Cabreja and John Mallee, as well as Counsell. A strong spring from Crow-Armstrong would be a vote of confidence for the new staff.

Finding a future ace among the arms throwing bullpens at Sloan Park: Forgive Counsell if he doesn’t spend much time stressing about a veteran rotation that includes Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon, Kyle Hendricks and Imanaga. He was spoiled by entry-level studs like Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta, Josh Hader and Devin Williams in Milwaukee.

Little would set up more success for his time in Chicago than finding some impact arms to place alongside Steele. The cast of candidates includes left-hander Jordan Wicks (the most likely fifth starter) and right-handers Cade Horton, Hayden Wesneski, Ben Brown, Porter Hodge and Michael Arias. Horton, who struck out one-third of the batters he faced last season, seems to offer the highest ceiling.

Trusting the catcher with staying power: You can argue Yan Gomes has earned his playing time as a Cub but it’s time to step aside for Miguel Amaya. The long-time prospect took a major step forward in the minors last season — .996 OPS with a .431 on-base percentage in 28 games — and, per Statcast metrics, has surpassed Gomes as a framer and receiver. Counsell and new first-base/catching coach Mike Napoli need to help Amaya find his swagger.