NBA playoffs: Round 2 predictions! Who will advance in the West? And are the Cavs in trouble?

The second round of the NBA playoffs is already underway, and the Western Conference matchups are finally set. Who wins Thunder-Nuggets and Wolves-Warriors? And what should we make of the Pacers stealing Game 1 from the Cavaliers? Let’s break it down.

Biggest takeaway from Game 1 of Cavs-Pacers?

Vincent Goodwill: That the Cavs need Darius Garland back, in the words of Morgan Freeman as Joe Clark in “Lean on Me,” expeditiously! Their two-pronged attack works with two lead guards able to run pick-and-rolls on each side of the floor. Some of this is general variance, playing a tougher opponent and not hitting jumpers. But Donovan Mitchell is better when Garland is alongside him, and vice versa. The Pacers hit everything from 3, it probably won’t continue. But Garland being there helps tempo and enables Mitchell to be looser offensively.

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Tom Haberstroh: It’s a make-or-miss league. The Cavs outplayed the Pacers in just about every facet of the game except a big one: the 3-point column. The Pacers shot a blistering 19-of-36 (52.8 percent) from deep while the Cavs stunk up the joint at 9-of-38 (23.7 percent). When you lose the long-ball column by 30 points, that’s way too much for anyone to overcome. I wouldn’t change much if I’m the Cavs. Darius Garland could stem the tide there!

Ben Rohrbach: The Cavaliers, who were operating on a week’s rest after sweeping the Miami Heat, were not prepared for the swiftness with which the Pacers attack. Indiana got 13 shots up in the first six seconds of the shot clock, shooting 62%. It did not help that Cleveland could not buy a jump shot, contributing to those transition opportunities. Expect the Cavaliers to be better prepared for Indiana’s tempo in Game 2.

Dan Devine: Indiana’s going to make the Cavs prove it. When you see that Cleveland finished Game 1 with a 70-38 edge in points in the paint, you’d figure the favorites dominated; when you see that Cleveland went just 9-for-38 from 3-point range, it’s tempting to chalk the loss up to the vicissitudes of shooting variance. Look closer, though, and you’ll see that Cleveland got all those shots in the lane in part because the Pacers’ perimeter defenders refused to help off the arc.

Maybe if you give Donovan Mitchell, Ty Jerome, Sam Merrill, Max Strus and Co. the same diet of looks four more times, the Cavs would take all four games. But Indiana’s bet that the Cavs wouldn’t beat them trading 2s for 3s has already paid off once. If Cleveland can’t change the math — the status of Darius Garland’s toe looms large — the Pacers could be in excellent position to pull off the upset.

Celtics-Knicks, Round 2: Who wins?

Devine: Celtics in 5. This is the nightmare matchup for these Knicks — the bar they saw set last season and that they were very clearly attempting to reach with their offseason moves, but that they have proven all season long to remain incapable of reaching. (For the millionth time: New York went 0-10 against the Celtics, Cavs and Thunder during the regular season, and 51-21 against everybody else.) Respect for Jalen Brunson’s record of stellar postseason performances requires me to project one out-of-body-experience type of win. Beyond that, though? I expect the C’s to be gentlemen about moving on to yet another Eastern Conference finals.

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Rohrbach: Celtics in 6. It makes me nervous that consensus considers this an easy series for the Celtics. Jalen Brunson is incredible, and New York’s Villanova boys never quit. Boston is banged up, too. But I just cannot imagine a scenario in which the defensive combination of Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns does not get pick-and-rolled to death. This is what the Celtics have done to them in the past, and it has yielded 130.2 points per 100 possessions this season.

Goodwill: Celtics in 5. The Knicks will be lucky to get a game. Maybe if the C’s are more hurt than this week off allows, but they’re built to easily deconstruct the Knicks with size advantages across the board and nobody is guarding Jayson Tatum.

Haberstroh: Celtics in 5. As good as Jalen Brunson was in the clutch, the Knicks’ porous defense won’t be able to contain the Boston Celtics’ five-out offense. It will look alien compared to the Detroit Pistons’ offense that often had multiple non-shooters on the floor. Kristaps Porziņģis in Celtics green at MSG? Sign me up.

Thunder-Nuggets, Round 2: Who wins?

Haberstroh: Thunder in 6. I see the youthful Thunder winning the battle of the MVPs (I think Shai wins it in a landslide) with the rest advantage. The Nuggets handled a stiff Clippers defense, but the Thunder are a different beast now with Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein. The Thunder’s Big Four — with SGA, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren and Hartenstein — have shredded the Nuggets this season in two matchups (before JDub left a game early). I think we’ll see more of the same in this one.

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Goodwill: Thunder in 5. Game 7 was impressive for the Nuggets, but they scraped by a couple games against the Clippers. One thinks the Thunder will not suffer the same fate. Nikola Jokić will pull a game or two out on sheer will, but that’s too much to ask. If OKC is legit, then they’ll make sure it doesn’t go seven games here. There are too many defenders, too many combinations to make this work.

Devine: Thunder in 6. Oklahoma City is the fresher, younger, deeper, more balanced and flat-out better team, with a double-big look to throw at Nikola Jokić, an armada of point-of-attack defenders to sic on Jamal Murray, and an all-world scorer in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander capable of slicing Denver’s perimeter corps to ribbons. I’ve had OKC going to the Finals since before the season tipped off in October; as much respect as I have for the way Denver outlasted the Clippers, I see no reason to change up now.

Rohrbach: Thunder in 6. If it were just Nikola Jokić vs. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — a battle of the two leading MVP candidates — we could expect a knockdown, drag-out series, but Oklahoma City’s depth will wear out the Nuggets’ six-man rotation over the course of a seven-game set. The Thunder are relentless.

Wolves-Warriors, Round 2: Who wins?

Rohrbach: Wolves in 6. The Warriors, following a seven-game series against the Rockets, are seemingly running on fumes. Jimmy Butler is hobbled … and older, as are Stephen Curry and Draymond Green. And they are not getting enough help to keep pace with a younger and hungrier and deeper Minnesota team.

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Haberstroh: Warriors in 7. The last time Rudy Gobert faced Draymond Green in the playoffs, it resulted in Gobert’s team getting swept in 2017. That was a long time ago and Kevin Durant isn’t next to Green anymore. Still, I see Stephen Curry and the Warriors taking the Timberwolves just like they did in the regular season (3-1). I like Kevon Looney in this matchup, and boy do I trust the Warriors’ newcomer, Jimmy Butler, more in a playoff setting than I do the Wolves’ addition, Julius Randle.

Devine: Wolves in 6. The idea of picking against Stephen Curry against a team he torched during the regular season makes me feel queasy. But with Golden State coming off a seven-game war against Houston, with the Warriors’ mid-30s top guns all having put a ton of minutes and miles on their legs to knock off the Rockets, with just one off day before Game 1 tips off at Target Center, with Minnesota having both home-court advantage and a rest advantage, and with just one day between games through the first five affairs, everything seems lined up for the Wolves to eventually force the more experienced underdog to run out of gas.

Goodwill: Wolves in 7. Hard to see the Warriors going down on their home floor, at least not as meekly as the Lakers did in Round 1. This is a prideful group, an ornery one. Feels like fatigue will catch the Warriors playing every other day until Game 6 at home, which could give them new life if they’re still alive. But Anthony Edwards has skins on the wall, and it feels like Steph is next. (Wait, does this mean I’m betting against Steph?) Oy.