NCAA Tournament 2025 bracket: Unbiased simulation predicts surprising upsets, March Madness picks, sleepers
Longtime Kentucky head coach John Calipari left for Arkansas last offseason, but the program acted quickly to hire BYU head coach and former Kentucky star Mark Pope. He had to build a Kentucky basketball roster from scratch, but the Wildcats still managed to earn a No. 3 seed in the 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket. Kentucky will begin its NCAA Tournament 2025 against No. 14 seed Troy on Friday in a Midwest Region matchup that tips off at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Wildcats were the 21st No. 3 seed in history to be eliminated by a No. 14 seed in the first round last season when they lost to Oakland, but can they rebound under Pope to make a deep run in the 2025 March Madness bracket? Before you make your 2025 NCAA Tournament predictions, see the March Madness bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
Last year, SportsLine’s computer simulation nailed massive upsets, including huge wins by No. 11 Oregon over No. 6 South Carolina, No. 11 NC State over No. 6 Texas Tech, No. 10 Colorado over No. 7 Florida, and No. 12 James Madison over No. 5 Wisconsin last year. The model has beaten over 91 percent of all CBS Sports bracket players in four of the past six tournaments.
This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has nailed 24 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016 and nailed UConn’s championship run last year. It nailed 13 teams in the Sweet 16 and was all over Alabama’s Cinderella run to the Final Four as a 4-seed.
Now, SportsLine’s advanced computer model has simulated the entire 2025 March Madness bracket 10,000 times to come up with the perfect 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket and find out which teams will pull off the biggest upsets. You shouldn’t even think about making a pick without seeing what their model has to say.
Top 2025 March Madness bracket upset picks
One South Region surprise the model has identified: First Four winner North Carolina knocks off No. 6 Ole Miss in the first round. Playing in the First Four makes for a longer NCAA Tournament grind, but we’ve seen on multiple occasions that playing on Tuesday or Wednesday as one of the last four teams in can also help build momentum. VCU (2011) and UCLA (2021) both managed to stage Final Four runs after winning their First Four games and a First Four team has gone on to win at least one additional NCAA Tournament game every year but one since the field expanded to 68 teams in 2011.
The Tar Heels looked dynamic offensively against one of the best defensive teams in the country on Tuesday, beating San Diego State, 95-68, while shooting 52.6% from the floor and going 14-of-24 from the 3-point line. Ole Miss ranks 23rd in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency this season, but has given up at least 76 points in eight of its last nine games. RJ Davis scored 26 points in the win over SDSU and the model expects him to be a big reason why the Tar Heels keep it rolling with an upset in the first round.
Another South Region surprise the model has identified: Creighton beats Louisville in the all-important 8-9 matchup. The Cardinals are amid one of the biggest college basketball turnarounds of the century, going from 4-28 in 2023 and 8-24 in 2024 to winning 27 games this season. They finished one game behind Duke in the ACC standings, but they only faced one ranked opponent during regular-season conference play, which was a 76-65 loss to Duke in December. Their non-conference schedule featured four ranked opponents, with three of those games resulting in losses.
Creighton played against seven ranked teams during the regular season, and it won three of those outings to go along with four single-digit losses. The Bluejays are led by four-time Big East Defensive Player of the Year Ryan Kalkbrenner, who led the conference in rebounding (8.8), blocks (2.7) and field-goal percentage (65.6). Louisville is going to have trouble containing him on Thursday afternoon, which is one reason why the model has Creighton advancing. See which other 2025 March Madness matchups to target here.
How to make 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket predictions
Who wins every tournament-defining matchup? And which teams will make surprising runs through the 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket? With the model’s track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you’ll want to see which stunners it’s calling this year before locking in any 2025 NCAA bracket picks.
So what’s the optimal NCAA Tournament 2025 bracket? And which NCAA Tournament Cinderella teams will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine now to see which region features two mammoth upsets in the first round, including one by a team that’s only ever won a single tournament game, and see which 6-seed makes the Sweet 16, all from the model that’s nailed 24 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds.
