Detroit Lions tight end Sam LaPorta (87) runs from Minnesota Vikings safety Josh Metellus (44) after … [+]
The NFL Week 7 schedule has three division games including the big NFC North first place showdown between the Detroit Lions (4-1) and Minnesota Vikings (5-0) in Minneapolis. Then the late afternoon feature is a Super Bowl rematch between the Kansas City Chiefs (5-0) and San Francisco 49ers (3-3) in Santa Clara.
Beyond those two most watched and wagered games on Sunday, Oct. 20 is the Houston Texans (5-1) at Green Bay Packers (4-2). The NFC North has been the best division in footall with all teams sporting a winning record including the Chicago Bears (4-2), who have a bye week along with the Dallas Cowboys in Week 7.
NFL Betting Trends – Latest Bet And Money Percentages
Betting in New York is booming, and the trade this week of WR Davante Adams from the Las Vegas Raiders to New York Jets has added to the watch and wager action in New York and across the country. FanDuel reported the interest this week.
“The biggest storylines from the past week were the wide receiver trades to the AFC East with Davonte Adams reuniting with his buddy Aaron Rodgers and Amari Cooper being traded to the Bills after the two rivals played on Monday Night Football. So far, Davante Adams to have 30+ receiving yards in each half has been our most popular weekly special with more than double the number of bets as the second most bet selection. The selection for Adams and Cooper to combine for 200+ yards has also been very popular so far. Off the back of these trades, the Jets have been our most bet team to win the Super Bowl this week.”
NFL Week 7 Odds
Pro football odds from FanDuel Sportsbook refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting. Bet types, odds and terms with listed point spreads on favorites.
Another game in London kicks off the Sunday slate between the New England Patriots (1-5) and Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5), who are tied with the Cleveland Browns and Carolina Panthers for the worst record in pro football.
Following Sunday’s late afternoon Chiefs-49ers game is the Sunday Night Football feature New York Jets (2-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2). Then another Monday Night Football doubleheader with a pair of interconference clashes between the Baltimore Ravens (4-2) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-2), and the Los Angeles Chargers (3-2) vs. the Arizona Cardinals (2-4). Check back Monday as we chip-in more Monday Night Football picks and props, which have been providing payoffs and profits for football fans.
NFL Week 7 Injury Reports
BetMGM reports that the Lions and Chiefs are the most bet teams in NFL Week 7 action and the most bet games and largest handle on the Lions-Vikings and Chiefs-49ers. The most bet over/under game totals are Under 50.5 points Lions-Vikings and Over 49.5 points Ravens-Buccaneers on Monday Night Football. The leading online sportsbooks are projecting big live betting action in those two contests this week.
Lions-Vikings
Respected sports handicapper and advanced model statistics guru Dr. Bob Sports provided additional stats and notes on the Lions-Vikings matchup with information you can bet on from Pro Football Focus (PFF) as well.
The loss of DE Aidan Hutchinson is immeasurable loss for the Lions’ defensive front, but their interior pass rush has been a bright spot and will be even more crucial going forward.
Prop Bet: Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 74.5 receiving yards and Over 6.5 receptions. Those two yards and receptions props both cashed as winners on WR CeeDee Lamb in the Week 6 loss to the Lions.
St. Brown had a season-low 15% target share vs. the Dallas Cowboys last week in the Lions 49-9 road route over the Cowboys. But he’ll be a major aspect of the game plan vs. the Vikings. Vikings nickel backs are allowing .41 more yards per cover snap in the slot than Dallas defensive backs. Lions QB Jared Goff was 6-for-7 for 178 passing yards under pressure vs. the Cowboys, and over his last two games, Goff has excelled against the blitz, completing 17 of 18 passes for 380 yards, 3 TD’s, and zero interceptions. This brings his season totals to a league-leading 701 passing yards and 12.1 yards per attempt against the blitz. The Vikings have a league-high 52% blitz rate. The Lions yards per attempt vs. the blitz is a league-high 35% more than vs. a standard pass rush. Heavy usage of St. Brown in the Lions passing game is projected.
San Francisco 49ers teammates celebrate scoring a touchdown against the Kansas City Chiefs during … [+]
Chiefs-49ers
- Here we are just over 6 months after the Super Bowl and the 49ers remain a short favorite over the Chiefs. San Francisco is down S Talanoa Hufanga and All-Pro RB Christian McCaffrey while Kansas City is missing WR Rashee Rice and the defense doesn’t have All-Pro CB L’Jarius Sneed like they did last February.
- Going unnoticed because of the 49ers record is Brock Purdy’s improvement this year. Purdy has increased his air yards per attempt from 8.3 to 10.0 while lowering his turnover-worthy play percentage from 3.2% to 1.8%.
- Purdy is the 3rd-highest graded quarterback in the NFL by our metrics and Purdy’s 1.33 WAR is 2nd in the NFL according to PFF.
- San Francisco’s ground game has remained steady without McCaffrey. Running back Jordan Mason has a league-high 32 forced missed tackles and the 49ers averaged 6.9 yards per rush last week. However, the Chiefs are allowing -0.16 EPA/rush (7th) and they will slow down the run game.
- Kansas City’s offense is targeting tight ends at a league-high 30% of passes and it was 38% in Week 5 during the first game without WR Rashee Rice. Chiefs TE Travis Kelce has a 65% success rate (3rd) and he has a favorable matchup with Hufanga sidelined.
- The Chiefs led the NFL with a 17% screen pass attempt rate last season, and this year, they have increased that number to 21% of their pass plays. The loss of Rashee Rice could potentially decrease this percentage, as his 32 targets on screens rank as the third-most among wide receivers since he entered the league last year. However, in Week 5, the Chiefs still called screens on 22% of their pass plays despite Rice’s absence.
- San Francisco edge defender Nick Bosa’s 14 pressures last week tied for most in a game over the last four years, but it was against a third-string tackle in Stone Forsythe. Bosa will be contained more often this week across from Kansas City RT Jawaan Taylor, who ranks 15th in pass-blocking efficiency.
- Kansas City coach Andy Reid is 33-8 straight up in games off a bye week as a head coach and his teams are 13-4-1 ATS as an underdog with extra time to prepare (week 1 or off a bye week), including 5-0 straight up the last 9 years.
- Our model favors the 49ers by 0.6 points, with a predicted total of 46.6 points, and Patrick Mahomes is now 16-2 ATS and 14-4 straight up in games when his team is an underdog or favored up to 2 points. In other words, Mahomes and the Chiefs play their best when challenged.
Dr. Bob Sports also sent out the LA Rams (-5.5) over the Las Vegas Raiders and the line has since moved to Rams -6.5 point favorite, and also New York Jets -1.5 on the road over the Pittsburgh Steelers in Sunday Night Football.
Follow more NFL teams and betting news with Week 7 picks, props and popular same game parlays, which includes player props and SGP in another engaging and entertaining higher-scoring game between the Commanders and Ravens.
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