Rafael one of just three Cat2+ November hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico » Yale Climate Connections

Traveling northwest, Rafael passed about 30 miles (50 km) west of Havana, where top sustained winds of 44 mph (71 km/h), gusting to 71 mph (114 km/h), were measured at 3:50 p.m. EST. Rafael’s powerful winds caused major disruptions to Cuba’s electrical power grid, triggering an island-wide power failure just days after Cuba’s grid suffered a complete failure Oct. 18-22.

Rafael’s ascension to major hurricane status on Wednesday gave the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season 17 named storms, 11 hurricanes, five major hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 153 (31% above average). An average season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, three major hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 117. 

Rafael disrupted by passage over Cuba

Rafael’s two-hour passage over western Cuba before emerging into the Gulf of Mexico disrupted the hurricane’s inner core, reducing the storm to a Cat 2 with 105 mph winds. Nonetheless, Rafael is one of only six November hurricanes ever recorded in the Gulf (Fig. 1), and one of only three Cat 2+ storms. The others were Cat 2 Hurricane Ida of 2009 and Cat 3 Hurricane Kate of 1985.

At 10 a.m. EST Thursday, November 7, Rafael was located 200 miles (320 km) west-northwest of Havana, Cuba, headed west-northwest at 9 mph (15 km/h) with top sustained winds of 100 mph (160 km/h) and a central pressure of 971 mb. Key West radar showed that Rafael was bringing a few heavy rain showers to the coast of southwestern Florida and the Florida Keys, and to portions of western Cuba. As of 10 a.m. EST Thursday, Rafael had dumped 2-5 inches (50-125 mm) of the rain on the Lower Florida Keys. A 24-hour rainfall amount of 6.30 inches (160 mm) was reported at Jaguey Grande, Cuba. Moisture moving northwards in advance of Rafael brought localized rainfall amounts of up to a foot over South Carolina (see Bluesky post below).

Satellite images on Thursday showed Rafael was less impressive than on Wednesday. An eye was no longer prominent, and the eyewall thunderstorms had warmer cloud tops and were not as symmetric.

Rafael expected to weaken in the Gulf of Mexico

Steering currents for Rafael favor a mostly westward track over the next three days, keeping the core of the storm away from any land areas. Rafael is over warm waters of 28 degrees Celsius (82°F) associated with the Loop Current, which extends northward from the Western Caribbean into the central Gulf of Mexico. As the hurricane progresses to the west, it will encounter waters about 0.5 degree Celsius (0.9°F) cooler. Wind shear is predicted to be a moderate 10-20 knots, but Rafael will be entering an environment with increasingly dry air, with should cause significant weakening by early next week.

Early next week, there is considerable model uncertainty on Rafael’s track. The two bold black lines in Fig. 2 above show the European model (left) predicting a west-southwesterly track toward Mexico, but the GFS model (right) predicting a more northerly track toward Louisiana. Roughly half of the Euro ensemble members and nearly all of the GFS members favor the northward track, toward the central U.S. Gulf Coast. This more northerly track would take Rafael into a region with higher wind shear and drier air, resulting in rapid weakening, and none of the ensemble members were depicting a U.S. hurricane landfall.

Disturbance over the Leeward Islands unlikely to develop

A tropical disturbance located over the Leeward Islands on Thursday was headed west at about 15 mph, and will bring heavy rain showers of 1-2 inches to Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic on Thursday, and to the southeastern Bahamas on Friday. A few members of the 6Z Thursday European and GFS model ensembles show development of this disturbance into a tropical depression or weak tropical storm by early next week. In its Tropical Weather Outlook at 7 a.m. EDT Thursday, the National Hurricane Center gave this system 2-day and 7-day odds of development of 20%. The next name on the Atlantic list of storms is Sara.

Bob Henson contributed to this post.