Rodriguez profile: 2025 Kentucky Derby odds, post position, history and more to know

Famously suspended by Churchill Downs for the past three years, trainer Bob Baffert is back in the Kentucky Derby and is looking for his seventh win in the Run for the Roses. His best chance to return to the winner’s circle will come from the speedy Rodriguez, who’s coming off a gate-to-wire win in the Wood Memorial. 

4 Rodriguez (12-1)

• Trainer: Bob Baffert
• Jockey: Mike Smith
• Last race: First in the Wood Memorial by 3½ lengths
• Career record: 5 starts: 2 wins, 2 seconds, 1 third
• Career earnings: $522,800
• Best career Beyer Speed Figure: 101 (2025 Wood Memorial)
• Sire: Authentic

Below, we’ll dig further into Rodriguez as part of our series profiling all the horses competing in the 151st Kentucky Derby on Saturday, May 3. We’ll look back into his past performances, what questions need to be answered on Saturday, and analyze how the post draw affects his chances.

Kentucky Derby profiles 1 Citizen Bull | 2 Neoequos | 3 Final Gambit | 4 Rodriguez | 5 American Promise | 6 Admire Daytona | 7 Luxor Cafe | 8 Journalism | 9 Burnham Square | 10 Grande | 11 Flying Mohawk | 12 East Avenue | 13 Publisher | 14 Tiztastic | 15 Render Judgment | 16 Coal Battle | 17 Sandman | 18 Sovereignty | 19 Chunk of Gold | 20 Owen Almighty

Kentucky Derby picks Michelle Yu | Gene Menez | Jody Demling

What to know about Rodriguez

In his second career start, Rodriguez blitzed a maiden special field that included eventual Santa Anita Derby runner-up Baeza by seven lengths, earned a big 100 Beyer Speed Figure, and stamped himself as one of the main contenders for the Kentucky Derby. But a funny thing happened on the way to Louisville, Ky. He finished second to stablemate Citizen Bull in his next start and finished third to Journalism and stablemate Barnes in the start after that, and suddenly the Derby dream seemed dashed.

But down to his last strike in the Wood Memorial, Hay Rod hit a home run, going gate-to-wire at 7-2 at TwinSpires and 1/ST BET, winning by 3½ lengths and earning a career-best 101 Beyer Speed Figure. (He and Journalism are the only two horses in the Derby with two triple-digit Beyers.) 

There is a strong case to like Rodriguez on Saturday. Baffert famously has had his issues, but he knows how to get a horse ready to run on the first Saturday in May, with six wins (excluding 2021, when his Medina Spirit finished first but was later disqualified). Baffert also is dangerous with under-the-radar speed horses: War Emblem (2002), Authentic (2020) and Medina Spirit.

Jockey Mike Smith also has won this race multiple times, with Giacomo in 2005 and Justify in 2018.

Rodriguez also is as fast or faster than anyone in this field not named Journalism, and he still has much growing to do. He’s a late foal (May 20), and his sire, 2020 Kentucky Derby winner Authentic, didn’t get good until late in his 3-year-old year. Baffert has said all spring that he expects Rodriguez’s best days are well in front of him.

Even the horse’s losses in the Robert B. Lewis and San Felipe Stakes can be explained. In both races he was facing more heralded stablemates who also liked to set the pace, so Rodriguez was not allowed to stretch his legs. When he finally got back to his frontrunning style in the Wood Memorial, he returned to the winner’s circle.

So the big question entering the Kentucky Derby is, will Rodriguez get to the front on Saturday with other speedy horses such as East Avenue and American Promise also looking for the lead, and if he does get to the front, can he survive a pace scenario that shapes up on paper to be extremely hot? And if he doesn’t get to the front, can he finally win without the lead?

There’s no question that Rodriguez is a talented colt who figures to win major races this year, but the expected pace scenario for the Kentucky Derby does not suit his style.

Post draw analysis

Rodriguez has done his best running when on the lead, and the No. 4 post will certainly force jockey Mike Smith to send the horse to the front. His other main rivals for the early lead, East Avenue and American Promise, both drew outside him, meaning he could feel pace pressure even if he is able to get to the front. Rodriguez could very well be first the first time under the wire, but will he be there the second time?