Should OKC Thunder root for Pacers or Knicks to advance to NBA Finals?
The Oklahoma City Thunder will have another week off before their next playoff series. After they beat the Minnesota Timberwolves in five games in the Western Conference Finals, they await their 2025 NBA Finals opponent. It’ll either be the Indiana Pacers or the New York Knicks.
The Thunder cruised through the West. They have been 12-4 in the playoffs so far with mostly blowout wins. After a historic 68-14 regular season, their dominance has carried over to the postseason as a buzzsaw.
Meanwhile, the Pacers remain red-hot. Late-game heroics and upsets have fueled their playoff run as they hold a 3-2 series lead over the Knicks. Speaking of, New York has had three straight classic playoff series. They were all heavyweight bouts with close wins.
Let’s spell out every argument for the Pacers and Knicks as to why the Thunder should and shouldn’t favor a matchup against them in the 2025 NBA Finals:
The case for the Pacers
The Thunder won both regular-season meetings against the Pacers. The first was a close road win on the day after Christmas. The second was a blowout home victory in late March. Both featured Tyrese Haliburton being shut down. That’s a very replicable game plan.
The Pacers are deep, but Haliburton is the center of their universe. He’s led the playoffs in assists at 9.5. The playmaker has orchestrated the top offense. That plays right into the Thunder’s strength. They can throw Lu Dort, Alex Caruso and Cason Wallace at Indiana’s franchise star. If you can rattle him, the rest of the roster will be affected.
If the Thunder can force Andrew Nembhard to be the lead ball-handler, that’ll be a huge win. He can put up numbers, but Indiana’s offense will nosedive if Haliburton devolves into an off-ball player. They also have a perfect counter to Pascal Siakam and Myles Turner with Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein.
Also, good luck slowing down Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The Pacers have zero high-end defenders to throw at him. This should be a series where he averages an efficient 30-plus points and dissects Indiana’s defense. Look at what Jalen Brunson has done to them.
The case against the Pacers
If anybody can make the Thunder rethink their defensive philosophy, it’s the Pacers. The league-best defense is cool with conceding outside looks, especially from the corners. They trust their high-end perimeter defenders to make the right rotations to contest.
It’s worked out so far in the playoffs, too. The Thunder have allowed the fourth-most 3-pointers in the playoffs at 38.7 attempts. Despite that, opponents have only shot 33.1% from deep. Some of that is luck, while some of that is that they haven’t faced a team filled with elite outside shooters.
Looking at the Pacers’ roster, their entire starting lineup is an outside threat. Any of them can randomly go off for 20 points because they hit their outside buckets.
The Pacers could challenge that. They’ve shot a league-best 39.3% from 3 in the playoffs. That’s on a decent volume of 33.4 attempts. They’ve had the best offense in the playoffs because of their hot outside shooting. Any misreads or lazy closeouts by OKC could snowball on the scoreboard.
The case for the Knicks
The Thunder won both regular-season meetings against the Knicks. They had a strong fourth quarter to mount a comeback in their first win in early January. The next week, they blew out New York at MSG. Isaiah Joe exploded for 31 points while Gilgeous-Alexander had an efficient 30-plus points in both matchups.
Like the Denver Nuggets, the Knicks are a top-heavy squad. It shouldn’t be a shocker to see Tom Thibodeau only trust seven players. They have a strong starting lineup with Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns being their best two players.
Brunson will get his stats. He averaged 24.5 points and seven rebounds in two games against OKC, but on 42% shooting. Considering how quiet Anthony Edwards and Ja Morant were against the Thunder, they have the proper perimeter defenders to limit New York’s best player. The Thunder could rely on the Denver route and dare others like Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby to beat them from the outside.
Meanwhile, the Thunder have enjoyed role players going off against the Knicks. Although it was in the regular season, if they can get a random Joe or Aaron Wiggins pop-off game, that could swing the odds even heavier in OKC’s favor.
The case against the Knicks
While Gilgeous-Alexander has been viewed as the best player in these playoffs, Brunson is seen as the second-best. He’s averaged 30.1 points on 46.1% shooting and seven assists. He’s been a high-volume outside shooter at 36% on 7.5 attempts. The free-throw numbers have remained strong at 8.2 attempts.
While the Thunder would be the best defense Brunson has faced, he could be a player who will get his regardless of the defenders thrown his way. Expect the All-Star to get to the rim and annoy OKC fans with the number of calls he gets. He could be a one-man show that keeps New York in it.
Towns could also have a decent series. He’s the right combination of size and skill. This could be another series where Isaiah Hartenstein could be played off the court if New York is smart and cross-matches against the bruising big.
Let’s also throw in the homecourt advantage. MSG is known as the Basketball Mecca. That type of nickname carries an aura about its playoff atmosphere. Several A-list celebrities have enlisted as Knicks mascots. The bright lights could be a little too much for the young Thunder.
Final verdict
The Thunder should enter the NBA Finals as a heavy favorite regardless of who advances. The West is just a different animal. The Pacers and Knicks are closer to the Memphis Grizzlies than the Nuggets or Timberwolves on the talent scale.
But if the Thunder had a preferred matchup, it would be the Knicks. A 3-1 series comeback is a daunting task that should require all of their energy. A Game 7 win on Monday would only give the two days to relax before the NBA Finals tipped off in OKC. That already puts them at a disadvantage before Game 1 even started, considering how top-heavy they are.
And while Brunson brings his challenges, the Thunder will be numbed by the undersized scorer. Nikola Jokic was the ultimate stress test. They held him to one of his worst playoff series ever, which was only salvaged by a couple of 40-point outbursts. OKC grew from that experience. No offense to Brunson, but he’s nowhere near the one-man threat the three-time MVP winner is.
The Thunder have handled the Knicks well over the last few years. Gilgeous-Alexander has dominated New York. He should play like an MVP winner against them. Even if Bridges, Anunoby and Josh Hart each get their turn to slow him down. Not to sound too cocky, but it should be a quick Finals series.
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