A Ukrainian soldier from the 110th Mechanized Brigade, garrisoning Avdiivka.
110th Mechanized Brigade
For 10 years, an old Soviet air force bunker complex has anchored Ukrainian defenses just south of Avdiivka along the front line in northeastern Ukraine.
If Zenit falls, Avdiivka might fall, too—forcing the Ukrainian garrison to retreat after a decade of stiff resistance.
On Monday, Russian troops came closer than ever to cutting off Zenit with its labyrinth of concrete strongpoints. They failed. But they might not fail next time—because Zenit’s defenders are running out of ammunition.
It’s no secret why. Pro-Russia Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives for months have refused to approve $61 billion that U.S. president Joe Biden wants to spend on weapons for Ukraine this year.
Without American money for American shells, Ukrainian artillery batteries are falling silent. Meanwhile Russian batteries, resupplied by Iran and North Korea, just keep blasting away.
The Soviet air force built the Zenit complex to house air-defense units protecting a nearby, currently defunct, air base. The Soviets meant for Zenit to survive a nuclear war. It’s that tough.
Ukrainian troops moved into Zenit in the early days of Russia’s invasion of eastern Ukraine back in 2014. They’ve been there ever since, lodging in the complex’s tunnels. The T0505 connects Zenit to Avdiivka proper, a mile to the north.
The hilltop Zenit complex is “critically important to the defense of the city, and for keeping the roads to the city open,” open-source analyst Andrew Perpetua explained. “I cannot see how you can defend without it.”
The Russians fully are aware of Zenit’s importance. And while they haven’t been able directly to capture Zenit, they very nearly cut it off during furious fighting on Monday. Russian troops reportedly bypassed Zenit to the east and advanced a half mile to Avdiivka’s southern outskirts.
The advance threatened to sever Zenit’s single supply line. But the Ukrainian garrison, led by the 110th Mechanized Brigade in downtown Avdiivka, pushed back—and reportedly relieved the pressure on Zenit.
But Zenit remains vulnerable. Compared to Avdiivka’s northern flank—where the Ukrainian 47th Mechanized Brigade’s M-2 fighting vehicle crews have, for months, repulsed wave after wave of Russian troops from the 2nd and 41st Combined Arms Armies—the city’s southern flank is soft.
“While the northern part of Avdiivka is protected by the AKHZ factory with robust industrial structures, the southern area primarily consists of vulnerable one to two-story houses susceptible to artillery fire,” Ukrainian think-tank Frontelligence Insight explained.
“This sets the right conditions for a known Russian approach,” Frontelligence Insight added. “If unable to capture the area, bombard it with artillery, dispatch the light infantry and capture the rubble.” In that way, the Russians might still succeed in cutting off Zenit. Possibly soon.
If Zenit falls, Avdiivka’s whole southern flank might crumble. Ukrainian commanders may then decide it’s too risky to keep fighting for the city’s ruins. They could order a retreat to prepared positions to the west, handing the Kremlin a major propaganda victory in the lead-up to Russia’s sham presidential election in March.
Russia’s 10-to-one advantage in artillery ammunition makes its firepower-first tactics around southern Avdiivka possible. This advantage wasn’t inevitable. It was, practically speaking, a policy choice by the Republican Party in the United States.
If House Republicans had voted for aid when Biden first proposed it, back in October, Ukrainian forces would not be running low on ammunition today—and Zenit might not be at risk of falling.
