Texas vs. Tennessee odds, prediction: Free 2025 Women’s NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 picks from proven experts
Top-seeded Texas (33-3) will take on SEC rival and No. 5-seed Tennessee (24-9) in the Sweet 16 of the 2025 Women’s NCAA Tournament on Saturday in the Birmingham 3 Region. The winner advances to face the winner of Notre Dame vs. TCU in the Elite Eight. The Lady Vols have historically controlled this series with a 26-17 head-to-head edge, but the Longhorns are in the midst of a strong season. They also beat Tennessee in Austin, 80-76.
Tipoff is 3:30 p.m. ET at Legacy Arena in Birmingham. The latest Texas vs. Tennessee odds list the Longhorns as 8.5-point favorites, while the over/under is 155.5. Before making any Tennessee vs. Texas picks, be sure to see the 2025 Women’s NCAA Tournament picks from SportsLine experts Aaron Barzilai and Calvin Wetzel.
Barzilai is a Ph.D. from Stanford who served as Director of Basketball Analytics for the Philadelphia 76ers. Wetzel incorporates his mathematical background and strong knowledge of women’s hoops to turn the site’s prediction model into picks. They are 543-383 overall (+122.89 units) during the 2023-24 women’s college basketball campaign and posted a 125-71-1 record (+44.33 units) so far in 24-25.
Now, here are their three best bets for Tennessee vs. Texas on Saturday:
Tennessee +8.5
Tennessee already played Texas well within this number, and that was a in true road environment. The Lady Vols have only lost one game — vs. Kentucky — by more than eight points all season. “That loss at Texas is one of many indicators we’ve gotten this season that Tennessee, whether they win the game or not, will almost always get up for the challenge and hang around against the nation’s elite tier of teams,” Wetzel said.
Under 155.5 points
The Lady Vols, who only gave up 67 points to Ohio State in the second round, use a heavy substitution pattern and press relentlessly in an effort to keep opponents off track. It was enough to fluster UConn earlier in the season and it’s likely going to keep Texas at least somewhat out of its offensive rhythm. The Longhorns defend the 3-point line well, ranking fourth nationally in opponent 3-point percentage, which should help them limit a big part of Tennessee’s game plan.
Want more Women’s NCAA Tournament picks?
You’ve seen the Wetzel and Barzilai’s best bets for Texas vs. Tennessee in the Sweet 16 of the Women’s NCAA Tournament. Now, get picks for every game from the experts who are up 44 units on their women’s college basketball picks this season.
