The once-in-a-lifetime success of “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” last year casts a particularly big shadow. The Barbenheimer phenomenon added around $2.4 billion to the global box office last year. There is nothing on the calendar in 2024 that can deliver those same results. Will “Despicable Me 4” and “Deadpool & Wolverine” be big hits? Almost certainly, but not enough to save the industry on their own.
What’s particularly frustrating is that many of this summer’s movies may well be hits on their own terms. If “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” can do “Rise of the Planet of the Apes” ($481 million worldwide) numbers, Disney will probably be happy. But the industry at large kind of needs it to do “Dawn of the Planet of the Apes” ($710 million) numbers. We can’t rightfully expect “The Garfield Movie” to be a $1.3 billion hit like “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” was last year. It’s unfair, but that’s where we are.
From the decline of superhero movies over the last year and change to an overall sparse release calendar thanks in large part to last year’s SAG and WGA strikes, the situation is not great, to put it lightly. As of this writing, 2024 ticket sales are pacing 21% behind this same point in 2023. The box office topped $9 billion in 2023, which was good, but that was still well behind pre-pandemic levels. Theater chains need a good year. Studios need to see the forest through the trees. Everyone needs a win, but summer 2024 isn’t looking like it’ll be able to shoulder the weight being placed on it.
I spoke more about this with Ben Pearson on today’s episode of the /Film Daily podcast, which you can listen to below:
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