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With falling prices, shrinking hardware, reusable rockets and new tech, the space industry is expanding like never before. There’s rising demand from businesses, governments and consumers. “I think the space age is starting now,” said Tom Mueller, CEO and founder of space start-up Impulse and founding employee of SpaceX, at a recent space conference. Here’s an outlook for an industry teeming with activity.
SpaceX leads the way
Everyone is chasing SpaceX and its huge lead and near-monopoly status. It won’t be easy, but there’s a concerted effort to create viable alternatives to SpaceX’s reusable rockets and Starlink internet constellation. More consolidation is inevitable as satellite operators and manufacturers try to mimic SpaceX’s strategy of vertical integration. SpaceX rarely needs outside suppliers, making its own rockets, engines, satellites, antennas and more.
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Other major companies used M&A in recent years to keep pace, such as Eutelsat-OneWeb, SES-Intelsat and Viasat-Inmarsat. “We ain’t SpaceX in terms of being fully integrated,” Dan Goldberg, CEO of Telesat, recently remarked. He noted that the company has started building a lot of tech in-house as it races to catch up. Big players are absorbing suppliers, buying space start-ups and trying to acquire customers.
Heated competition will push the global space market to nearly $1 trillion in 2033, up from $600 billion in 2024, according to a report by market research firm Novaspace. The adoption of cloud computing and artificial intelligence, along with other innovations, are “creating new opportunities for commercial adoption,” says the report.
The rise of megaconstellations
Megaconstellations will lead to more disruption. Starlink’s lead is building with nearly 7,000 small satellites in low-earth orbit, beaming fast broadband service to more than 5 million customers. That includes businesses, ranging from United Airlines to Carnival Cruise Line, and consumers around the globe, especially in remote spots. Speeds are as quick as home internet, service is reliable and data delays are small. Starlink provides web service on trains in Miami, the Scottish Highlands and beyond. It connects more than 75,000 ocean vessels. Consumers are choosing it for remote lake houses, RVs or as an alternative to traditional wired broadband.
Competition spells falling data prices that entice new customers. Amazon’s Kuiper will make waves with a constellation that rivals SpaceX’s Starlink. Kuiper plans for 3,200 satellites, with service starting in 2027. Eutelsat OneWeb already has 630 satellites in orbit, focusing on business and government customers. Telesat’s Lightspeed starts service in 2027. Rivada Space Networks, Logos Space and others aim to have constellations. Globally, 70,000 new satellites are planned through 2030, according to a Goldman Sachs forecast, and China is planning to launch three-quarters of them. Though not all of these global missions will pan out.
Demand is growing for better rockets and fully revamped manufacturing. SpaceX launches 80% of all spacecraft and did 134 orbital launches last year, according to BryceTech. Next on the list was China’s space program (48) and Russia’s space program (17), followed by California-based Rocket Lab (14). Europe has Arianespace and Japan has Mitsubishi Heavy Industries. Top start-ups include Relativity Space, Firefly and Blue Origin. SpaceX aims for 170 launches this year, a bit lower than initially planned. China is ramping up, too.
In coming years, tens of millions of flat-panel antennas will need to be built. SpaceX is expanding its Bastrop, Texas facility to churn out millions of antennas per year. Amazon will have to ramp up antenna production as Kuiper service gets off the ground. Florida is also a hot spot for space manufacturing. SpaceX has shown how mass production lowers costs and shrinks the hardware. One Starlink antenna, the mini, is 12-inches by 10-inches and just 2.5 pounds. It fits in a backpack and can run on a large portable battery pack, providing speeds over 100 megabits per second.
Explosion of applications
Fast broadband from space is sparking new and fast-growing satellite applications. Wi-Fi on planes and trains can handle video calls, streaming movies and gaming. Soldiers can stay connected in war zones. Ditto, victims after natural disasters.
New antennas from Kymeta, ThinKom and others connect to satellites in multiple orbits plus land-based cell networks for resilient and secure service, which is useful for border security, intelligence agencies, emergency services and more. Agriculture is a fertile market, with John Deere using Starlink for remote diagnostics and communications on tractors, and CNH using Intelsat service on its farm equipment.
Other uses for satellites include tracking drones, fleets of trucks, ships, goods and cars. Many smartphones can tap satellite service for emergency SOS messages or to just send texts, no extra hardware needed. And don’t forget Earth observation. Capella Space, Planet Labs, BlackSky and others sell imagery for mining, insurance, agriculture, oil and gas, retail, defense, finance and other sectors.
Sovereignty in space
A growing mantra among countries across the globe: Sovereignty in space. With geopolitical tensions high, countries want more control over satellites, rather than rely on SpaceX rockets and internet service. Even the U.S. military, which has a SpaceX constellation in the works, wants more choice. Amazon’s Kuiper is a sure bet to win big Pentagon contracts, plus contracts from other countries.
It’s a big tailwind for the industry, both SpaceX and others. More nations want to adopt commercial space service and off-the-shelf hardware and software, plus launch their own large stationary satellites and small satellite constellations. The Department of Defense plans to integrate commercial space with its current tech for faster speeds and improved reliability. NATO recently started a similar project. The European Union is spending $11 billion to build its own internet constellation, using European rockets and satellites, with the aim of boosting its space autonomy. Of course, China sees its planned constellations as a way to avoid outside space tech.
Global government spending on space is set for double-digit yearly growth in coming years. $135 billion was spent by governments in 2024, a 10% increase versus 2023, according to Novaspace. The U.S. leads in government spending, with 59% of the total. More than half of the global tally is defense spending. “With the rising importance of space assets, more nations are establishing dedicated space forces” as a way to bolster defense capabilities, notes the report.
Look for more nations to try to cut red tape for the industry. In the U.S., the Federal Communications Commission is planning to streamline satellite approvals, free up spectrum and OK services, such as direct-to-device tech, at a faster clip.
Investing in space
Emerging space tech and improved services continue to excite investors. Promising start-ups keep landing funding from venture capital firms. Exciting tech includes Impulse, which is building vehicles to ferry satellites in an efficient way from low-earth orbit to higher orbits, or the moon and beyond. HiSky is building low-cost, small antennas for tractors, cars, wind turbines and more. Elve aims to make vastly cheaper millimeter-wave amplifiers, a key space component. Orbit Fab is building gas depots in space to refuel satellites and extend their lives. There are start-ups in manufacturing, ground systems, Earth imagery, software and other areas.
Despite big opportunity, many start-ups won’t pan out. Some will combine with bigger firms. Tech could fail, cash could run out or revenue not materialize. Meanwhile, there is a long list of publicly traded companies in the sector, from traditional firms such as Boeing to newly public companies such as Rocket Lab. Other public firms include Iridium, Planet Labs, Intuitive Machines and MDA Space. Kuiper is sure to intrigue space investors in Amazon. Though SpaceX has no plans to go public soon, there’s already huge interest. It has a sky-high private valuation.
We think space investments can be risky and require ample due diligence. The capital-intensive industry is notably prone to disruption, delays or failures.
Future challenges loom
Don’t overlook the headwinds for space. Start with the threat of tariffs from the U.S. and other countries, which could cause costs to rise, reduce innovation and fragment the global supply chain. Other types of protectionism include countries blocking foreign space services via regulations. There’s the inherent risk of space, shown in the recent explosion of SpaceX’s next-generation Starship rocket, which is sure to spark delays.
There are growing fears about satellite collisions, service disruptions or cyberattacks. Funding could dry up or defense spending on space could be lower than predicted. “The old axiom that ‘space is hard’ endures,” noted Iridium CEO Matt Desch in an annual report from recent years.
But those challenges hardly dim the immense promise for customers. And there are emerging solutions from advanced artificial intelligence, set to help with collision avoidance, imagery detection, bandwidth allocation, predictive maintenance and more. Amazon Cloud Services already has an AI chatbot for deciphering satellite interference.
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