2025 Oscars Best Supporting Actor Predictions

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Best Supporting Actor commentary (Updated Feb. 26, 2025): Kieran Culkin’s scene-stealing performance in “A Real Pain” has been an awards-season juggernaut. If he loses, it would be one of the biggest shocks of the night. Although respected and on his fourth nomination, Norton hasn’t caught on as once predicted.

Surprising, the name that seems to be in the runner-up spot is Culkin’s former “Succession” co-star Jeremy Strong, for his remarkable work as Roy Kohn in “The Apprentice.” There are not enough votes to make a difference, but it is still an interesting development.

With this one, you can check off at least one correct pick in your office Oscar pool.

Will Win: Kieran Culkin (“A Real Pain”)

Could Win: Jeremy Strong (“The Apprentice”)
Should Win: Guy Pearce (“The Brutalist”)
Should Have Been Nominated: Tommy Dewey (“Saturday Night”); Bryan Tyree Henry (“The Fire Inside”); Sean San Jose (“Sing Sing”)

The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited artisans are not final and are subject to change.