Today’s best MLB pitcher strikeout props: Fade Cy Young-winning Tigers starter against Mariners
The top two teams in the National League West square off when the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants begin a three-game series on Friday at Oracle Park in San Francisco. The Dodgers (56-38) lead the division by five games over the rival Giants (51-43). Dustin May (5-5, 4.52 ERA) is set to take the mound for Los Angeles, while Logan Webb (8-6, 2.62) is scheduled to get the call for San Francisco.
The top sportsbooks have set May’s total strikeout player prop at 4.5, while Webb’s is 5.5. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates May Over 4.5 as a 4-star play on its 5-star scale and Webb Over 5.5 as a 3.5-star play.
However, the model has found better value elsewhere on Friday’s 16-game schedule. There are two pitcher strikeout player props that the model has rated at 5 stars and another rated at 4.5. Here they are:
Drew Rasmussen Over 2.5 strikeouts (-135) vs. Red Sox (7:10 p.m. ET)
Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 4.4 strikeouts
This is a reachable number for the Tampa Bay righty even though the Rays have recently begun using Rasmussen (7-5, 2.82) as an opener in an attempt to limit his innings. He has gone Over this number in 14 of 18 appearances this season. On Friday he will face a Boston club that strikes out at a high rate. The team’s 9.07 strikeouts per game this season are the third most in all of baseball.
Chase Burns Under 6.5 strikeouts (-129) vs. Rockies (7:10 p.m. ET)
Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 1.4 strikeouts
This is the model’s best pitcher strikeout prop for Friday. The highly touted Reds phenom (0-1, 8.10) has shown electric stuff with 15 strikeouts in 10 innings. But two starts ago he struggled, giving up seven runs on five hits and two walks while failing to strike out a batter in just ⅓ inning against the Red Sox. In addition, Colorado has been seeing the ball better lately, with just 43 strikeouts over the past six games; just four teams have fewer strikeouts over the past week.
Tarik Skubal Under 8.5 strikeouts (-153) vs. Mariners (7:10 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 7.2 strikeouts
The SportsLine Projection Model continues to fade the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner. Though he is tied for second in the majors in strikeouts (148), the 28-year-old lefty has gone Under 8.5 strikeouts in 11 of 18 starts this season. Skubal (10-2, 2.02) faced Seattle earlier this season and struck out eight in a 3-2 loss.
