Words matter in international diplomacy, and Donald Trump has spewed out some that are especially dangerous. He signaled that he might not defend Taiwan from a Chinese invasion. “Taiwan should pay us for defense,” he told Bloomberg Businessweek in an interview released on Tuesday. “You know, we’re no different than an insurance company.” Trump went on to imply that protecting the island was not even possible. “Taiwan is 9,500 miles away,” he said. “It’s 68 miles away from China.”
The comment typifies Trump’s view of foreign policy as a business transaction, and likely appeals to a political base weary of Washington’s superpower responsibilities. But although such talk may be good domestic politics, it makes for atrocious geopolitical strategy. The Chinese dictator Xi Jinping is listening for clues about American intentions in Asia, and factoring them into his calculations for promoting Chinese influence. Trump’s Taiwan remarks play right into his hands by undermining the most fundamental, yet fragile, source of U.S. global power: confidence in American leadership.
At the moment, conflict over Taiwan, which the Communist regime in Beijing claims as an integral part of China, hardly seems imminent. The CIA believes that Xi has told his military brass to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027, but this doesn’t mean he will. Xi told President Joe Biden in a November meeting that he had no plans to do so (though it would be foolhardy to take the Chinese leader at his word). China would run tremendous risks with a grab for the island. If the campaign faltered, or sparked a costly regional war, the price could be Xi’s political career and perhaps even the future of Communist rule over China.
Washington doesn’t have a binding commitment to defend Taiwan. Although Biden has on several occasions said that the U.S. would come to Taiwan’s defense, Washington’s formal position has been kept purposely ambiguous. Trump’s comment has just made it more so.
And that’s risky business. Xi has turned to promoting nationalist causes to build support for his dictatorship amid economic malaise and heavier repression. This has elevated the importance of what the Communists call “reunification” with Taiwan in Xi’s domestic political messaging. If he is indeed considering military action to make that happen, he will base that potentially fateful decision, in part, on whether he believes that the U.S. will oppose him. By creating greater uncertainty about the U.S. position, Trump is raising the possibility of a destructive war in East Asia.
That’s not just because of a single statement. Trump’s latest ill-considered comments are part of a pattern suggesting that he and his party will not stand with Taiwan. He has falsely accused Taiwan of undercutting the U.S. microchip industry—a claim he repeated in his recent interview. This year’s Republican Party platform broke tradition and omitted mention of Taiwan.
Perhaps even more damaging, however, is what Trump is signaling to American partners in Asia. China’s leaders seem to believe that U.S. support is enabling many governments in Asia to resist Chinese regional dominance. If those allies’ faith in American commitments in Asia wavers—or even if Xi believes it is wavering—that could persuade China to be even more aggressive in pursuing its controversial territorial claims in the South China Sea, among other interests. Asian leaders, not only in Taipei, but in Tokyo, Seoul, Manila, New Delhi, and elsewhere, could struggle to hold their ground against Xi’s pressure if they are unsure of U.S. support.
China’s leaders know this full well, and their propaganda machine was quick to capitalize on Trump’s comments to characterize the U.S. as untrustworthy. “Trump’s remarks reflect the shameless but true thoughts of many U.S. politicians,” the Communist Party–run news outlet Global Times argued. “The U.S. wants to maximize its exploitation of the Taiwan island’s interests” and “gain economic benefits as much as possible.” As a result, the outlet gleefully claimed, Taiwan’s democratic leadership “should be trembling now.”
Trump’s position on Taiwan in this respect looks a lot like his stance on the war in Ukraine. By criticizing aid to Ukraine and NATO, Trump encourages Russian President Vladimir Putin to persist in his invasion and pursue who knows what other violence in Europe. But the dangers may be greater in the East than in the West. There is no Asian NATO that could hold fast in the region if Trump withdraws. The democracies of Asia would be left to fend for themselves against Xi’s designs.
That problem could go global. Xi is persistently on the lookout for weaknesses in U.S. leadership to exploit in China’s favor. He has likely identified Trump as one of them. Three days before Trump’s inauguration, in 2017, Xi gave a speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos portraying China as a benevolent power pursuing the global good in a tumultuous world. He became more assertive in promoting Beijing’s international role over the course of Trump’s tenure. The U.S. stepped back from global leadership during those years, and Xi tried to fill the void. In 2020, Trump criticized and then withdrew from the World Health Organization; Xi jumped on the chance to paint China as the more responsible global citizen by donating millions to the agency. Rancor between Trump and U.S. partners in Europe helped Xi make progress in dividing the Atlantic alliance over policy toward China.
Xi’s goals to remake the world order and assert Chinese global leadership have not changed, but Biden’s revitalization of the American alliance system has set back progress on those goals. The Chinese leader was forced to alter his strategy by partnering with Putin and seeking to build a coalition within the developing world to counter U.S. influence. Trump’s Taiwan comments are a reminder that his return to the White House would bring uncertainty and instability to U.S. foreign policy, which could once again open opportunities for Xi to demonstrate Chinese leadership.
Of course, unraveling the U.S.-led global order will take a lot more than a few offhand comments in a volatile presidential race. But by disparaging longtime partnerships with the world’s democracies, Trump is placing at risk the foundation of American primacy. His statement on Taiwan displays a fundamental misunderstanding of the nature of American power, which is based not on aircraft carriers and nuclear warheads as much as on relationships built on trust. If Trump sacrifices that to domestic politics, U.S. superpower stature will be lost along with it.
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