Two major ways the Trump administration is making hurricane evacuations more difficult » Yale Climate Connections

When a mandatory evacuation is called ahead of a hurricane, highways fill with cars heading away from the coast.

“One of the mantras of the field is make sure your gas tank never goes below half full during the summer,” said Stephen Murphy, the director of Tulane University’s disaster management program.

Evacuations can save lives. But calling an evacuation that residents perceive as unnecessary after the storm passes can degrade trust and make people less likely to evacuate the next time, which can leave state and local leaders reluctant to call for mandatory evacuations.

In past years, officials weighing a decision ahead of a storm have been able to turn to highly accurate forecasts from the National Weather Service. And they knew that when they called an evacuation, the federal government would back them with money and other support. This year, these previously reliable federal services come with major question marks.

1. Climate change combined with federal cuts degrade the quality of forecasts needed to make evacuation decisions

In New Orleans, the storm preparation timeline works backward from the time that the outer bands of the storm are expected to reach the city, known as ‘H-hour,’ Murphy said. Resources are moved to anticipated areas of need 100-84 hours ahead of H-hour, and at 30 hours before H-hour, contraflow begins, which means all traffic on the interstate is directed away from the city. 

But he said the rapid intensification of storms in recent years has given emergency planners an additional headache. A storm rapidly intensifies when the maximum sustained winds of a tropical cyclone increase at least 30 knots (about 35 mph) in 24 hours — a short period that can leave people on the ground with little time to prepare ahead of a suddenly monstrous hurricane. 

Rapid intensification can be tricky to predict, though forecasts have improved in recent years. But cuts to staff and budget at NOAA, the agency that oversees the National Weather Service, under the Trump administration’s DOGE project threaten that progress. Firings, buyouts, and early retirements have left at least eight of the 122 National Weather Service offices unable to operate around the clock, according to Yale Climate Connections meteorologist Jeff Masters. Another red flag is a significant reduction in data from meteorological balloon launches.

Read more: Hurricane season is upon us, but NOAA and FEMA are not ready

“Rapid intensification events often occur because an upper-level trough of low pressure with a strong ‘jet streak’ of powerful upper-level winds is located just to the north of a hurricane, providing an upper-level outflow channel that ventilates the storm, allowing it to gather in more warm, moist air near the surface to help feed it,” Masters said. “With less data to predict the positioning and strength of such troughs, our rapid intensity forecasts will likely be degraded in some situations when multiple balloon launches do not occur because of NOAA staff cuts.”

Rapid intensification forecasts are critical in helping emergency planners mobilize a coastal evacuation. In places like coastal Louisiana, evacuations need to start early so people aren’t caught on the highway when the storm hits. 

“You’ve got to start the evacuation early on, and that starts with the parish following instructions based on what the National Weather Service is saying,” said Retired Lt. Gen. Russel Honoré, who managed the U.S. military response to Hurricane Katrina in 2005. “And now this year, we know the National Weather Service has been degraded by DOGE.”

Cuts have consequences, illustrated. As seen on TV 📺

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— John Morales (@johnmoralestv.bsky.social) June 2, 2025 at 7:45 PM

2. Uncertainty at FEMA means states may not get essential financial or coordination support for evacuations

In addition to cuts at NOAA, the Trump administration has made cuts at the Federal Emergency Management Agency and has withheld money from some states that experienced disasters this spring. President Donald Trump and others in his administration have called for states to manage disasters mostly on their own and have said that FEMA will be dissolved after this hurricane season.

The decision to call an evacuation is already a difficult one for state and local officials. In 2008, Hurricane Gustav looked like it would head right to the city. 

“But Gustav did not hit New Orleans,” Murphy said. “It skirted by and caused more damage to Baton Rouge, where a lot of our population evacuated to. So it’s kind of the ‘boy who cried wolf’ story.”

That decision gets even harder if local officials don’t think they have financial support. In previous years, a governor might have asked for a federal disaster declaration ahead of a major storm. When approved, that would trigger FEMA support, like evacuation coordination and contracting buses to evacuate people who can’t drive and ambulances to help evacuate hospitals. 

“No hospital on the planet can evacuate their entire hospital with ambulances on hand,” Murphy said. 

Samantha Montano, the author of “Disasterology” – a book about U.S. vulnerability to disasters in the face of climate change – and an assistant professor of emergency management at Massachusetts Maritime Academy, said that there is no state that is capable of pulling off a major evacuation without federal support. 

“The idea that state and locals are just going to, all of a sudden, come up with this extra money for emergency management is, I don’t think, really rooted in reality, especially when you look at the overall political situation,” she said.

It’s unclear whether pre-storm disasters will be approved this year, but the Trump administration has been slow to approve or has denied disaster declarations to states that experienced tornado damage this spring. 

“That pre-disaster declaration with the federal support allows the comfort to pull that trigger, or, should I say, to pull that trigger, knowing you’re protecting life and safety, but there’s also financial support to pull it off,” Murphy said.

Before Hurricane Helene drenched western North Carolina in the fall of 2024, FEMA was present helping with communication and shelters in places like Asheville, said Sarah DeYoung, a professor at the University of Delaware’s disaster research center. But after devastating floods swept through the area, misinformation about FEMA led to confusion and anger. 

Read more: Hurricane misinformation festers, revealing a new side to the climate fight

“If you don’t have a scenario in which agencies are prepared to communicate with each other and rapidly mobilize those resources, then the communities are really going to be suffering,” DeYoung said. “As angry as we thought people were after Katrina, or Hurricane Helene, with all the confusion, undercutting, and constraints to federal resources for this coming hurricane season, you know, I sort of dread to see what’s going to happen.”

What can you do to protect yourself and your neighbors this hurricane season?

Given the uncertainty, Honoré recommends that you take a conservative approach and evacuate if you live on the coast and you’re in the forecast cone of a hurricane this summer. But this can be risky if you evacuate to an area that ends up getting the brunt of the storm, like what happened in Baton Rouge during Gustav. 

Murphy advised making sure you have an updated evacuation plan and understand your risk tolerance and preparedness. 

“You got to weigh those risks, and you got to understand that you should leave if the storm is coming your way and you feel unsafe, regardless of what the city government is doing,” he said. 

Honoré said that if you’re planning on evacuating, you should check on your neighbors and make sure that they also have a way to get to safety. Older neighbors, in particular, need extra support, he said.

Other vulnerable groups this hurricane season will likely be immigrants, trans people, people in prison and U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement detention, and others who are afraid of seeking official help due to dehumanizing and violent rhetoric from people in power. Organizing with neighbors well ahead of an emergency can help communities understand their vulnerabilities and prepare to survive.

“The first lives that will be saved will be neighbors helping neighbors, and that happened during Katrina,” Honoré said.