What to Expect in Friday’s Jobs Report—The First Since the Fed Cut Rates

A highly anticipated report on the job market Friday could show unemployment rising, potentially influencing how fast and how far the Federal Reserve will cut borrowing costs in the coming months.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ report on jobs in September Friday is expected to show the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2%, the same as in August, according to a survey of forecasters by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal. The median forecast called for the economy to have added 144,000 jobs, up from 142,000 in August.

Some forecasters called for the unemployment rate to tick up to 4.3%, matching its July level. That increase, if it comes, would likely be due to more people looking for work and not finding it rather than more people being laid off, Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in a commentary.

There Is Increased Scrutiny on Jobs Reports…

Reports on the labor force have taken on new significance in recent months as the formerly hot job market has lost some steam under pressure from the high borrowing costs for all kinds of loans over the past two years. 

While there are no signs of mass layoffs yet, employers have pulled back on job openings, and the unemployment rate has ticked up to typical pre-pandemic levels. Officials at the Federal Reserve began a campaign of rate cuts this month aimed at bolstering the economy and keeping the labor market healthy as their attention shifts from fighting inflation to preventing job losses. 

The fewer jobs the economy adds, and the higher the unemployment rate goes, the more pressure Fed officials will be under to cut rates faster, which would reduce borrowing costs for mortgages, auto loans, and credit cards. 

…As The Federal Reserve Keeps An Eye On Job Numbers

The Fed is widely expected to cut its benchmark fed funds rate again when it next meets in September. Financial markets are currently betting the central bank will slice either .5 or .25 percentage points from the current range of 4.75% to 5%. The Fed started its rate cuts with a .5 percentage point (or 50 basis points, also known as bp) reduction in September and could repeat that move depending on how the job market does in September and October. 

“We think a September jobs report in line with our forecast would be consistent with our view that after a 50bp rate cut earlier this month, the Federal Reserve can continue with rate cuts at a more measured pace, although we see the risks tilted toward a more aggressive pace of lowering rates,” Vanden Houten wrote in a commentary.

Forecasters are also looking ahead to October’s jobs report, which could prove even more consequential, especially if highly publicized labor disputes at Boeing and at ports on the East and Gulf coasts result in strikes.