Why Jets taking a quarterback is a great NFL Draft prop long shot and four more best bets from insider
Draft season means quarterback-intrigue season. If you are looking into the prop market, and especially anything in the top 10, then figuring out where this group of passers lands is going to impact almost any wager you make. Despite whatever Mock Draft Nation will tell you about the strengths of this class, they are going to come off the board fairly quickly. There’s too much need, too much allure to perhaps strike it rich and land a quality starter for peanuts. Too many football people I talk to are convinced of it.
A fair amount of the initial wagers I have made on the draft involve the QB position — in general, this early on, I found myself most intrigued with the skill-position players in this draft. Its strength is on the defensive side, but the lack of truly game-changing receivers and offensive linemen to the degree we have become accustomed will invariably push up the prospects who do stand out at those positions. Again, that’s just how it goes.
Teams seem to be going even more out of their way than usual to send smokescreens and bask in subterfuge. And many of the execs and GMs I’ve spoken to aren’t necessarily buying the signals some front offices are attempting to send about their future at the QB spot. In fact, they believe those teams doth protest too much (Browns). Here’s what stood out to me during my first week really exploring these markets and starting to poke and prod execs and agents.
Jets first pick on a QB (+1700)
Woody Johnson wants attention. He hates being ignored far more than he hates losing, and the Justin Fields contract is far less than what he was giving Aaron Rodgers. Oh and his rookie head coach, Aaron Glenn, is well aware of Fields’ warts and limitations from scheming against him when running the Lions defense. I’m not buying the Jets won’t make a big move here. While the Giants’ ownership group may be fearful of the brash and bold Shedeur Sanders, it’s exactly the kind of spectacle Woody loves. This is worth a sprinkle.
Saints to use first pick on QB (+1000)
New Orleans has passed on a slew of QBs since Drew Brees went into decline. They can’t wait to get out of the mess they made with Derek Carr after this season. Top football exec Mickey Loomis just watched his frenemy Sean Payton grab the fourth-best QB in a draft – allegedly – and “overdraft” Bo Nix (allegedly) and it shot Denver to the playoffs. The Saints had a lot of success with a former Ole Miss QB in Archie Manning, they have to embrace a rebuild at some point. And they also could be the team to break Sanders’ fall if there is one.
Broncos to draft a RB first (+250)
We can debate the merits of taking a RB this high. Plenty of time has been spent debating this. But do we think Payton cares? He showed you a year ago he doesn’t. The Broncos have built a strong roster and I know the lack of efficiency in the run game killed Payton last year and kept him up at night. That’s not his offense. I know how much he thinks that could provide for Nix in Year 2. He didn’t regret taking Mark Ingram where he did. I’m just sayin’ …
Bears to draft Ashton Jeanty (+130)
Yeah I don’t think this particular back makes it to Denver’s spot. They’d have to move up for him, which honestly, wouldn’t even shock me. The Bears think they’ve fixed their OL and they gushed about their skill guys a year ago. They have to protect Caleb Williams a helluva lot better. Running the ball is imperative and this kid would never come off the field. It feels very much like what this front office would do. This fits their MO of making a splash and prizing skill guys.
Raiders first pick on a WR (+300)
Tom Brady is finally airing a smidge of the grievances he held against Bill Belichick from the demise of their relationship and hence the Patriots dynasty. What I heard repeatedly – like, for years, from people close to him who would know – is that Belichick’s refusal to invest draft capital on pass catchers drove him nuts. They grabbed a high-end TE a year ago and secured the pass rush spot with a Maxx Crosby extension. Brady is obviously very involved there and I just have a hunch he falls in love with a receiver in this draft, maybe even one from Arizona who teams seem to like more than mock drafters from what I gather. If the Raiders could trade down I believe they would be very open to it, which could be a precursor to grabbing a receiver, too. I suspect these odds shift the closer we get to the draft. I want to get ahead of it.
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